Potential Ultra Long Routes 2015

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Old Jun 18, 14, 4:07 am
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Potential Ultra Long Routes 2015

Hi there,

I know we've sort of done this before but with the increasing 787-8's and the 787-9's due next year I wondered if BA would launch some 7,000 mile plus routes. SCL has been mooted (at around 7,300) but so has HNL (also 7,300) and CGK/Jakarta (guess what, around 7,300).

Any thoughts - are these 15 hour sectors a pipe dream or do we think they will happen? Also anywhere else that the 787 could get to that would be viable? I seem to recall the 787 can get up to around 8,000 miles but cannot see anywhere from LHR that BA would fly to for that distance that would be viable and the 3 above seem the obvious super long distance choices.....

FD.
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Old Jun 18, 14, 5:29 am
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Originally Posted by Flying Doctor View Post
SCL has been mooted (at around 7,300)
Last night I was having dinner with a mining executive. He reckons that if BA opened SCL CW would probably be full with J-fare passengers every day!
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Old Jun 18, 14, 5:32 am
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As ever I doubt the economics would work for these, because of the effective cost of flying the fuel you need for the last few hours so far. But I have sometimes wondered if (traffic rights permitting) BA could make an LHR-ANC-HNL route work and try to pick up some of the oil trade.
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Old Jun 18, 14, 5:34 am
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With an F cabin, and a redesign of the less than satisfactory Y seating configuration, I think these could work on the 787-9.

Another few years yet, and plenty of existing 767 and current 777 marginal routes with overcapacity (e.g. SAN), plus closer routes not yet served, which could make sense with the 787 before you'd start ULH routes.
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Old Jun 18, 14, 5:46 am
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Originally Posted by cynicalmoose View Post
BA could make an LHR-ANC-HNL route work and try to pick up some of the oil trade.
BA is not permitted to transport passengers wholly within the United States due to anti-cabotage federal law. In effect they cannot pick up passengers at ANC for transport to HNL, and any passengers collected at HNL cannot not disembark at ANC. It is difficult to imagine the economics of that route would work out without the intra-US traffic.
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Old Jun 18, 14, 6:01 am
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CGK has been mooted for a while, and i've got the IATA figures somewhere that show there are sufficient numbers of travellers on the route (which wouldn't be leisure).

There's a thread with reliable insiders saying it was on the tip of being announced - but maybe Garuda's announcement of 5 x 77W's weekly from LGW-CGK put them off (they subsequently rescheduled their SIN terminator which would have allowed a SIN-CGK-SIN tag on). BA were even confirmed in local papers.

Now Garuda have decided London cannot support 5 x weekly non-stop flights and pulled their non-stop services in favour of routing via AMS, I strongly believe CGK's Business Markets could offer a very strong case for a non-stop 787.

Downside would be perhaps the back of the plane? BA has a poor network of partners in SE Asia having cut back on MI/SQ, and the QF/3K/VF network shrinking, but a tactical partnership with GA on their PER/DPS/SUB routes may help with that.

I'm still struggling to see why CTU is a BA destination in comparison (ok, it's a 3 hour shorter flight), but perhaps the fact that Indonesia probably wouldn't offer any subsidies on slots / landing fees might not help.
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Old Jun 18, 14, 6:04 am
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Originally Posted by Sam Bee View Post
I'm still struggling to see why CTU is a BA destination in comparison
CTU has 14 million + people whilst JKT has only 9 million + people (source: wikipedia ). That might be part of it.
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Old Jun 18, 14, 6:10 am
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HNL has no business traffic, so I don't think it would work.

Rather than SCL I'd propose LIM - also a fair amount of mining and other business traffic, plus a much larger tourist destination than SCL and a more central place as a South America hub to connect to, with LIM having about as many passenger as SCL, and growing faster.
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Old Jun 18, 14, 6:17 am
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Originally Posted by Sixth Freedom View Post
CTU has 14 million + people whilst JKT has only 9 million + people (source: wikipedia ). That might be part of it.
Those numbers are fine and dandy, but how many people actually need or want to travel between CTU and anywhere else on BA's network, compared with between JKT and anywhere else on BA's network?

I asked about the loads to/from CTU elsewhere, but no-one responded.
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Old Jun 18, 14, 6:19 am
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Originally Posted by Sixth Freedom View Post
CTU has 14 million + people whilst JKT has only 9 million + people (source: wikipedia ). That might be part of it.
Tack on the Croydon-esque (geographically!) suburbs of Sukabumi, Tangerang, Bekasi, Sukabumi you're hitting 15 million. When you've taken into account that Surabaya is the only other decent international airport on Java (well, 1 x daily CX flight and token SQ/MH service) then you've got 140 million people relying on Jakarta

But fair comment, I had no idea that Chengdu was so popular, so I should re-phrase.

I'm still struggling to see why LBA is a BA destination in comparison

I've flown a lot to Jakarta, used to predominantly be on one of the 4 weekly EK flights (via CMB and either SIN or KUL!) - which now has 3 daily sardine cans (their 77W's). The amount of capacity into CGK these days (3 daily QR flights, 2 x EY, MH, SQ - which deems CGK a necessary F destination) is scary. If KL,LH,AF and TK can all do it as a one stop service, BA non-stop would be a go-er from many European destinations as well.
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Old Jun 18, 14, 6:21 am
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Originally Posted by Calchas View Post
BA is not permitted to transport passengers wholly within the United States due to anti-cabotage federal law. In effect they cannot pick up passengers at ANC for transport to HNL, and any passengers collected at HNL cannot not disembark at ANC. It is difficult to imagine the economics of that route would work out without the intra-US traffic.
True, but I doubt that the intra-US traffic for ANC-HNL would be sufficient to make an otherwise unfeasible service.

I think LHR-HNL would work better as a "holiday" service once or twice a week from LGW, anyway. Or actually, it sounds like something that only a charter airline would be interested in.

I think there must be several tens of destinations in North America that BA would be interested in serving before they would get around to instituting an HNL service.
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Old Jun 18, 14, 6:26 am
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Originally Posted by Sam Bee View Post
I'm still struggling to see why CTU is a BA destination in comparison (ok, it's a 3 hour shorter flight), but perhaps the fact that Indonesia probably wouldn't offer any subsidies on slots / landing fees might not help.
IBM, CISCO, Intel, HP, Canon, Microsoft, Siemens, GE, JP Morgan...to name a very small fraction of global business giants that has large presence in Chengdu. Not to mention the a large number of parts of IPhone is made in Chengdu...Chengdu is becoming a big IT hub for China, is currently one of the biggest US investment destination in China and a financial service centre for the whole Southwest China including Tibet and Yunnan. When did you hear last time Jakarta was mentioned as the largest US investment destination in Southeast Asia?

Now I would like you to educate me about Jakarta in terms of business activities. I am really intrigued to learn about it.
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Old Jun 18, 14, 6:34 am
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Originally Posted by BlackBerryAddict View Post
HNL has no business traffic, so I don't think it would work.
I think limited is the word you're looking for, there is some. And a lot of premium leisure traffic.

It'd likely be a 'holiday' flight from Gatwick.
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Old Jun 18, 14, 6:40 am
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HNL is almost as laughable as my hope to see them on LHR - IBZ.

Long(ish) but not super long, and thin would be my guess with additional destinations in China and the US.
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Old Jun 18, 14, 6:42 am
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Originally Posted by chongcao View Post
IBM, CISCO, Intel, HP, Canon, Microsoft, Siemens, GE, JP Morgan...to name a very small fraction of global business giants that has large presence in Chengdu. Not to mention the a large number of parts of IPhone is made in Chengdu...Chengdu is becoming a big IT hub for China, is currently one of the biggest US investment destination in China and a financial service centre for the whole Southwest China including Tibet and Yunnan. When did you hear last time Jakarta was mentioned as the largest US investment destination in Southeast Asia?

Now I would like you to educate me about Jakarta in terms of business activities. I am really intrigued to learn about it.
No idea about the US, have no interest

But as I said in a subsequent post, i'm unfamiliar with CTU, the two destinations are obviously not mutually exclusive. The query I have is more to do with the poor loads and yields on BA on the route, and whether the 787 can be more ably deployed.

Re: CGK business - easily read up on, for the ultimate glibness, just google how MINT is the new BRIC...

Also - apparently greater Jakarta's population is 28 million!

But for stats my IATA figures are a couple of years out of date - UK-Indo in 2011 was 41 million (up 40% on preceeding year), J was 15.5 million, CGK accounting for just under half these numbers. These have increased since. I have some old BA figures for calculating yield per flight, but appreciate these are probably now, irrelevant.
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