Flying Doctor

So - as the 787 and A380 D-Day approaches I thought that I would start something about this.

We know that the 787-8 is a 767 replacement. The A380 is a 747-400 replacement (although of course the non NF 747-400's are all Mid-J not high-J).

What do we think will happen?

The 787 and 767 is easier - I would expect an almost like for like replacement of the 767's by the 787's as fast as the 787's can be delivered with except maybe a slight delay so the first 2-3 787's will be added to the fleet and then the 767 fleet will deplete by 1 for every 787 airframe thereafter. This will of course limit any new routings for the 787 for a bit but I suspect that BA is really keen to get rid of the 767's, even though they have had a bit of a 'tart -up' recently.

The A380 is more tricky. There are 3 to be delivered by the end of 2013 and then there are 2 more 777-300's with 4 more of these in 2013. I suspect that nothing will be retired straight away until the A380 is up and running on the HKG route in November. Then I suspect that 1 747-400 will be retired for A380 number 3 and then another one for the 2 777-300's. In 2014 I suspect that there will be 3 747-400's retired in place of the 4 777-300's and with the (I believe 5 A380's due in 2014) there will be 4 747-400's retired. This means that 9 747-400's will go by this stage. Whilst I suspect that most will be the Mid-J non NF planes I suspect that we might see the odd Hi-J go - maybe a 7 Mid-J 2 Hi-J split or something like that. I suspect that by 2015 the idea is that all the Mid-J non NF planes have left the fleet - replaced in effect by 6 777-300's and 12 A380's by the end of 2015.

Thoughts? Worth a good bit of speculation.....

FD.

layz

It'd be nice to see some of the 767's retained for operational spares so that the likes of DME doesn't have to be subbed for a shorthaul. It would be nice if some of the more popular midhaul A321 routes were eventually operated by LH aircraft (initially displaced 767's, then eventually 787's) and the A321's in midhaul config used for the longer CE runs.

escape2sun

I suspect that some of the old 747's may not be retired straight away and used for extra capacity on some of the busier routes and utilise the available slots at Heathrow.

E.g. BA33/34 rotation to JNB has been extended to run on through the winter 2013/14. Others might be kept at Heathrow as cover for other 747's which are currently proving to be unreliable.

Genius1

I don't think any retirements of the 767s or 747s will start this year.

Don't forget the 737s are going too (eventually!).

layz

Most people seem to think that RTM and LBA are slot sitters until they get more longhaul aircraft.

They could probably also get away with cutting a few MAN rotations (I'll be a shame though) if they needed extra slots.

oscietra

MAn-LGW is sorely missed; it probably isn't economical on a jet, but would be ideal for a Saab 2000 style turbo prop operation, principally as a connection for the LGW transatlantic leisure destinations.

layz

Am I right in saying that the only flights MAN-LON are to LHR? I've never seen Gatwick on the departure boards at MAN since BA ceased their LGW services (I actually timed my trip to RAK a month earlier than originally planned so I could fly MAN-LGW-RAK without any airport change).

NCL lost their LGW services a long time ago but they codeshare with BE. Of course that will stop as soon as FlyBE pull out next year.

Sales on Flybe NCL-LGW must have dropped significantly since they announced they're pulling out of Gatwick as I've heard them advertising on Metro Radio reminding people that it's business as usual on the route until the end date.

So, with Flybe codeshares out of the window and EZY buying all their slots I can't see BA bringing back these routes.

Also wasn't one of the reasons Flybe pulled out of LGW was that the airports fee structure meant it was uneconomical to fly smaller aircraft out of LGW. So I doubt we'd see a Saab 2000 operating in BA colours there.

Flying Doctor

I thought that some of the D checks were fairly imminent though at that therefore some frames have to be retired soon....

FD.

travellingblade

There are currently 8 A380s and 8 787s due to be in service by the end of 2014.

BA have said they are standing down 9 744s and the 7 long haul 767s that have not been refurbished by the end of 2014 which ties in with the new deliveries. The remaining long haul 767s will be gone by end of 2015.

Historically when BA have stood down aircraft they have not always been immediately sold or scrapped. I would expect at least a few to remain parked up at CWL or LHR as spares and to be salvaged for spares!

8420PR

Since planning their fleet renewal, BA have picked up a lot more LHR slots from BMI. I suspect retirements will be much slower, as new or displaced aircraft are used to open up more longhaul routes (with a corresponding reduction in Domestic and Euro flying, and these airbus (former BMI) moved to LGW).

At least that is what I would do, on the hypothesis that a longhaul route contributes more profit than a shorthaul one.

Grande Annee

I thought I read somewhere that the plan is that from Nov 2013 one 747 is to be retired per month.

darthlemsip

I very much doubt this, with them having spent the money on upgrading them all to NF

We'll see the OF Mid-J birds go, and the Hi-J ones will be replaced by the A350-1000's I suspect

Flying Doctor

That looks about right to me as there is a slight increase in capacity for the overall fleet from the 6 777-300's extra that will be in play by then which means overall capacity will increase.

I do wonder if the 767's will be slowed down a bit to get the 787 on a few new routes with SCL being my big hope of course as 8 787's for 7 767's is not really allowing much growth for new thin routes which is why the 787 was purchased in the first place.

The Hi-J and Mid-J thing will depend, I suspect, entirely on the D check inventory for the 747-400 fleet. My understanding is that the D check is almost akin to rebuilding the frame and is pretty pricey so I suspect this is the determinant of which planes go first.

I have to say that I do think BA will try to get the 747-400's off routes quickly - they are old and they use too much fuel as I have often said. I would suspect that the A380 and 777 fleet will be used to do all the longest routes where the savings are greatest so the Far East, South America, South Africa and US West Coast I think will be getting the 777-300 and A380 first.

One final point is of course the 9 options that BA has for more A380's - I suspect that these are on hold until they can see the performance of the A380 in the fleet and see if they need any more. I hope that they do - I would have thought the A380 would be a good Hi-J replacement and that would mean a fleet size of 20-25. This is what happened with the 777-300's - they saved so much money for BA that the strategy was changed to get them onto the longer sectors as the savings were so great.

FD.

FlyingNelly

So are the 787s definitely a direct replacement for LH 767? BA252/253 to GCM runs on a 767 as I believe the runway was too short for other aircraft. Can the 787 squeeze in?

nux

Didn't BA operate a 777 to GCM until a few years ago?