RAPC

That depends. There was some Abu Dhabi money being mooted to support the deal and I've had it confirmed that they certainly have been doing due dilligence on bmi. Originally it was thought to be through EY, but it looks like it may just be a direct funding to VS.

If it is just VS, then I agree that it is just shouting. However if it is what I've been hearing and the Abu Dhabi money is supporting the deal, then I strongly expect VS to win the bid. As I say, it is all about who is funding this.

rajsbasi

...I had hoped to post this earlier but sadly I have been knee deep in employment law instead of having the time to comment on FT, the latter being of course more interesting


The battle for control of bmi British Midland has intensified with Virgin Atlantic starting due diligence to buy the ailing airline.

The Times understands that Virgin has made an indicative offer and signed a “terms of agreement” contract with Lufthansa, bmi’s owner, so that it can analyse the airline’s books.

International Airlines Group, which owns British Airways, said last month that it had reached an agreement in principle to buy loss-making bmi from Lufthansa but Virgin has been determined to gatecrash that deal.

Banking sources said that the indicative offer from Virgin was lower than the IAG offer but Sir Richard Branson’s airline is banking on being able to complete a deal quickly without the regulatory scrutiny that would accompany a BA-bmi merger.

.......

HIDDY

Yes anything is possible I suppose although we've heard stories like this before from Virgin so I tend to eye them with a lot of suspicion.
I'd like to know what SQ thinks about this.....I can't imagine them being in favour of such a deal.

I still see his bid simply as a spoiler. He knows he will fail then he'll start throwing his toys out of his pram as usual.....I'm afraid he's become just too predictable.

Tiger_lily

But it is also true that there is usually a lot of sabre rattling and not a lot of substance.

This time is subtly different. There was some huffing and puffing from Ridgway at the start and then it went quiet. They've signed a ToA with LH, this is serious.

Due diligence and bankers fees will not be cheap. I am of the opinion that VS would not have gotten this far if they didn't believe that they could pull this off.

We all know that SQ have been trying to offload their stake forever, and nobody's buying, at least at SQ's valuation of the stake anyway. In a way it doesn't matter what SQ think, they are in the minority shareholding wise.

An OFT investigation just sees LH stuck with BD for longer. I can't see their shareholders accepting further sustained losses for as long as the OFT take, and even though the bid is lower it gets BD off the books sharpish with the minimum of fuss.

HIDDY

I don't think any OFT investigation will be a long drawn out affair...they know that it's in no-ones interests for this to drag on. BA will already have factored in that they will have no choice but to give up some slots and will do so voluntarily.
Virgin had to bid to make it appear they were a serious player in order to justify them getting a fair share of the slots.
The EU bods won't give a monkeys who who gets BD.

The BA bid is obviously the right one for everyone involved.....at least the BD staff have some chance of keeping their jobs. I just can't envisage Virgin being able to do anything with BD without it costing them a lot of money.

YorkieFlyer

I still think the nightmare scenario is Virgin's bluff being called and their offer accepted. How would they fund the ongoing losses necessary to keep the slots? The only obvious scenario would be a drastic reduction of routes and staff and a leasing/sale of slots. I would imagine that IAG would at least keep some of BD's medium haul routes with a swap around of some routes to LGW

kaka

I dont see ihappening, but is it possible for cx/swire to enter the game thru swire's mother company(as eu holdings company)

chrismscotland

I agree, I don't think Virgin would be spending what will be hefty legal and bankers fees to complete due diligence if they weren't serious about completing a deal, I agree that you have to wonder where the cash is coming from and like IAG the main attraction is the slots, not the current business, while I would hope Virgin would keep the domestic routes - if only to add fuel to the fire that their bid is better for UK passengers than BA's - I don't really see Virgin keeping the whole of the rest of the BMI network, and I'd also imagine that either Crawley or Donington Hall would be closed but then BA are going to shut DH also.

A_Lee

But what does LH think? Do they think it will be a long drawn out affair? Or do they think there's a chance it might? Having already lost many millions, I'm sure they are very anxious to wipe their hands of BD. How will it look to LH investors if they choose to ignore a sure quick sale, in exchange for attempting to make more on the sale but end up losing a whole lot more than the extra they would have made?

I don't think anyone knows for sure how long a sale to IAG could be tied up. Based on the information I read here, I think LH would be a bit foolish to choose IAG over VS unless IAG was willing to agree to the sale being completed by a certain date, and if not pay some penalty for each additional day that goes by.

cazoz

Could Virgin, if successful, fit their whole operation on one terminal (3 or East)? Giving them a transfer and connection ease in a way that BA already can't offer today, and would be even more difficult if they won the bid. BA would be spread very thin and the advantages of T5 would be eroded as more flights left from elsewhere.

Virgin could also return as a prodigal son to Glasgow, and perhaps based a short-haul crew there doing W routes with Edinburgh, at lower cost.

chrismscotland

I'd guess that if Virgin Atlantic took over we might see all Virgin/BMI services co-located in the new Terminal 2 once its opened, especially as thats where the Star Alliance group is going to be, but until then I could see BMI services (or re-branded Virgin) remaining in T1 and Virgin remaining in T3.

Similar to IAG's plans I would imagine that it would be late 2012/early 2013 before we saw any major changes anyway.

Raffles

Whilst wondering what we wish for, its worth keeping an eye on the LH board. It seems, from January, that only SEN's will be allowed to book LH F awards directly. All other M&M members will need to make a 'request' (even if space shows for SEN's) which LH will then think about and ring you back with a decision. Reading between the lines it seems they may be looking at your profile to see if you fit the super-luxe view they have of their new F product.

LH F is also now blocked to all other *A airlines until 1-2 weeks before departure, it seems, so even if VS comes into *A as part of this deal, don't expect to be redeeming on LH F in a hurry.

Tiger_lily

Since they ditched C&M unless you have more miles than you know what to do with, LH F isn't a reasonable option anyway.

LiviLion

I'd rather redeem on VS at *A C rates for UC than F on any airline (or C on any airline for that matter).

Bonkers view perhaps but when flying on my own I love the fact I can sit at the bar and chat to randoms.

chunk73

I reckon the bid by VS is serious. As mentioned above, why bother going through due diligence and paying for all that if you aren't? Also - if I was SQ i would be probably be quite happy to part on my own feed into LHR flights so I have some say on the charges. Currently it is quite often the case that on SQ's website they will sell you a connection on BA cheaper than BD.....which kinda defeats the object of being in an alliance.