Worth purchasing miles during sales?
 

If you can get business and the cost is lower then it's fairly simple math. It's either available and cheaper or it isn't. I am betting on not available very easily given the loads of miles they sell constantly which overloads the inventory of miles and makes them less valuable.

"Worth it" depends on the person looking to buy and redeem miles.
Sure, you can get exceptional business class flights on EVA, Asiana, or even United.
However, you will need to be flexible with your trip dates (because award space availability may not fit your plans), and you will of course not earn any miles (for status) from award tickets.
Since you are based in HKG, you could look at getting business class tickets from CAN on one of the Chinese carriers, if price is your main concern.

Lastly, Lifemiles is a nasty beast that you should ecpect to fight with just to buy/use/refund/change tickets on. Be prepared emotionally!

Just register to check availability. if alone you should be able to pull something up that is acceptable. Careful though, as not everything shown is bookable.

IMO if you have plenty of time to wait for a deal and you are fairly flexible with travel then it usually isn't worth it. Lifemiles is great for lastminute tickets when cash tickets are usually pretty expensive and award availability is often at its best. I would never ever suggest buying lifemiles with the intention of using them in the future... Only buy them to use immediately provided you can prove to yourself using maths that it is relatively cheaper than paying cash (bear in mind that cash tickets earn miles which have value).

If I were you I would look at tickets out of TPE, China and MNL. There are lots of bargains to be had. For example there is a CX fare available from PEK for £2000 (3400CAD). Get yourself a cheapo to PEK, start your trip there and then drop the HKG-PEK on the way home. Credit the miles to Alaska and you will get a total of 38,000 AS miles. Thats nearly enough for a free HKG-EU award on CX (42,000). Or add another 12,000 for about $250 during a sale and you have a HKG-YYZ award direct in business.

Now think about lifemiles... If you buy in say a 120% bonus you would need to buy 36k miles (+ bonus) for $1188 to be able to buy a one-way in J. Add to that about $120 in tax and service charge and you are paying about $1850CAD for a one-way. Then you have the hassle of using lifemiles, trying to find availability etc and you are still paying more than the CX fare above and you won't make any miles either.

If you planned on buying miles during promos then AS miles would be your best bet. In a 50% promo it would cost about $2000USD without tax for a HKG-YYZ return award on CX.

I can tell you that you will almost certainly not find space on AC YYZ-HKG in J via Lifemiles or any other partner program. They release one seat at T-355, which is exclusive to Aeroplan members. After that you have to hope for random inventory to show up, which it generally will not.

YYZ-TPE-HKG on EVA is very doable though and I would argue a far superior onboard experience to CX or AC even if you do have to add on a few hours for the connection. I have such a booking myself for after Xmas.

I mean, it really depends. I use Lifemiles for YYZ-SFO in J frequently and pay less just buying miles than I would buying economy tickets. That's on AC's lie-flat 787 mind you. AC's pricing for J on that route is absolutely ridiculous, but awards are not hard to come by even if not booking far out.

I also have bookings for SFO-NRT in ANA F, SIN-TPE in EVA J on the Hello Kitty jet, TPE-SFO in EVA J, and YYZ-TPE-HKG in EVA J. Booking these sufficiently far out allowed me to get flights on the exact dates I wanted. The chance of any fare discounts on these routes on these airlines is pretty low. My net cost for the first 3 of those was about $2400.

I agree that transiting through PEK can lower costs to Asia, but I would never transit through PEK with its operational reliability. Also as a Canadian citizen I feel an additional need to avoid that airport right now.

I get the feeling you've never tried to find CX partner award space on YYZ-HKG. It's seriously impossible. You can find posts on this forum going back six years that complain about it. They only fly one plane and they know it's generally full.

Actually I do it regularly for my friend who travels BKK-YYZ to study 2x year. On all 4 occasions I have helped I have managed to get CX J seat. Usually booking in the week before departure up until the day before departure. As long as you are flexible and can book last minute then it is possible. Obviously also depends what time of year you are flying too (last time I booked was mid/end of November).

That was just an example (although the one I would take so I could just catch a direct home). Other examples include TPE-YYZ with AC for £2000 which avoids the need to go through PEK. Can collect 32k UA miles for that trip.

Wow, that's a lot of caveats to use the supposed "best best" option. I wouldn't be putting my faith in a last-minute J seat if I'm flying to study somewhere. Also, if you're booking YYZ-BKK, the availability is not necessarily the same as YYZ-HKG. Cathay has married segments for awards.

YYZ-TPE is generally a little more expensive than that, but originating in Asia can be that low. I wish I was originating in Asia like OP. Although, it's really TPE-YVR-YYZ.

I generally agree that you shouldn't stock up on miles just with the hope of using them, but I think you're really underestimating the value that these provide and I personally think you're overvaluing Alaska miles. Honestly though, fewer people buying Lifemiles is better for me, so I'm totally cool with it. I agree with your general sentiment though that there are also good opportunities to just buy paid J at good prices and earn miles along with that, but as I mentioned in my original post, the chance of me achieving paid bookings close to what I got with only about $2500 in Lifemiles is zero.

I meant best option financially and that he can get a direct flight. When I mean best option, I only mean if something is available since I would never recommend buying miles unless you are going to be spending them within the next hour.

I agree there are times when lifemiles can be valuable and obviously in your case this is the case since, as you mention YYZ-Asia is usually pretty expensive. I use them myself for F travel and depending on route they can offer great value. I was mainly replying to the OP that in general he can get much better value and flexibility if he can depart from somewhere nearby. For example he/she could get that TPE flight for the same as that $2500 you paid for lifemiles except he/she will earn miles, be able to make changes easier and have more dates available to them.

To be fair I always keep a small reserve of 50 lifemiles for a potential last minute booking. The beauty of lifemiles for me is one-way bookings =)

Availability does not depend on the number of Lifemiles on issue, but on whether the airline partner will release inventory to Lifemiles. Partners such as SQ who are stingy towards their other *A partners will be stingy towards Lifemiles - that is not a function of how many miles LM is selling. TG on the other hand seems willing to hand out award seats to LM like lollies on most (but not all) of its routes, and that's also true for TG making inventory available to both United and SQ (I belong to both so can check inventory). I'd have thought the greater risk is that LM's partners say that LM will have to "pay" more in points because their inventory is devalued by the number of points on issue

Hello RTWFF,

Do you have any evidence that LM's partners say that LM will have to pay more in points for their award flights? I am curious.

Michaelmorio

They posed it as a hypothetical.