CMB, Sri Lanka
 

I'm scheduled to "transit" at CMB about one month from now.

I am going to be spending a few bucks out of my own pocket to bring this "destination" into play for me on my quarterly business trips to Asia. Once set up however, I can do 2 trips to BKK and 2 trips to SIN/CMB each year.
After reading about the current state of affairs in Sri Lanka this morning, I'm questioning wether or not I should cancel. Is it really worth small degree of risk?

I can give up on CMB with a single phone call. It will cost me $35 to cancel, I'll save the out of pocket $700 incremental fare that my company does not cover.

I can choose wether or not to fly my "intra-asia repositioning filight" down to SIN and make use of a pre-paid night at the SIN IC or just forget the hotel night and save that RT airfare too ($500 SQ C).

I'll still make top tier on NH, and am only giving up a long shot at making UA 1K as well. Thus far I have 0 UA EQM. I can easily delay this until December or Feb 06 if things quiet down, but I'm just not excited about flying into a powder keg.

What would you do in my position?

I leave for CMB in the morning. It's difficult to look at the news account and assess whether there is any risk. I've decided there is a high level of probability that I will be fine. (I am spending several days in Sri Lanka.)

Are you planning to visit the country, or just do airport turns? If you are simply doing airport turns, I think the risk is near -0- that CX or SQ or another carrier will fly in if they consider the plane and passengers to be at risk.

If you are planning to visit the country, I'd wait a week or two and see what news comes from Sri Lanka. Perhaps this will turn out to be analogous to the assassination of a leading politician in any country, which has no implications for the risk faced by tourists.

I know you are only doing a turnaround at the airport.
It seems your only purpose to go to CMB is to get more status and more miles.
If this is the case I would save the money and rescehedule at another quieter time.
I agree that SQ would not fly in there if they thought there was a risk but then BA was caught up in the invasion of Kuwait but that is another story.
My 2 cents

I'm due to do a transit late next month as well. As SanDiego1K says, there is near zero chance of risk if you're just in transit. I mean, whats the probability that the airport will be attacked within the hour and a half that you (or me) are there doing a transit?

I'm not one to take uncalculated risks, and I would have gone ahead with a visit to Colombo (ie. into town) even in the current situation. Of course, I'm the kind of person who regularly flew into HKG during SARS and BKK during the bird flu outbreak.

Don't let the media put you off, but do keep up with whats going on there, so that you can cancel your trip upto the point before you fly out if it worsens.

JackR and Savage25: I apreciate the time that you (my personal friends) have taken to respond to this thread. I value your opinion although they appear conflicting to a degree.

SanDiego1K: Please report back to this thread. when you have a chance. THanks in advance and be safe!

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As far as I can tell, this whole thing could blow over in 10 days and we could be back to where we were a week ago. Or it could escalate.

I can pay my agent's $35 booking fee, blow off the $125 night at the IC SIN and make top tier on NH with 125% COS/EQM and 125% Elite bonus miles on two SFO-NRT-BKK-NRT-SFO trips by the end of 2005! If I were greedy, I could even do a couple via LAX to score some additional miles and fly the 773!

UA has comped me to 1P. I was gambling on the 2X EQM promo late in the year with which there was and outside chance that I could score 1K AND retain NH Diamond status for 2006. However without making 1K, the promo is totally useless as I am 1P through Feb 2007! NH Diamond is a no brainer at this stage.

As a relatively-risk-adverse-US-based FTer who flys ex-Asia for all trips, I've been champing at the bit for nearly a year to get down to CMB, but my incremental savings vs flights (C or D) ex-BKK didn't seem worth it. It's merely the challenge of earning top tier in both of my preferred programs AND the desire to dump 80% of my 1K upgrades on my wife who will make 1K this year as well. (Her company requires coach purchases). She'd never fly Y in 2006!!!

Flat out as JackR describes, it's greed not need!

I'll be making my decision in the next 7 days. I'd love additional contributions. If I were to cancel, I'll likely still go out of pocket on BKK-SIN-BKK, have dinner with Savage25 and not throw away a non-refundable night at the IC in SIN.

Cheers,
Scho

FWIW, based on the coverage (Newspapers, TV) I've seen here in Thailand the person killed was more than a leading politician, he was widely revered and instrumental in the on-going cease-fire/peace process. I'm guessing that some factional TT's were agitating and pushed forward with their own agenda? So it could go either way, escalate or snuff out the last remnants of civil war. Again, based on my totally removed and amateur read I'd say the later is likely. I'm probably more likley to die on the back of a motorbike taxi near my home than on a upcoming planned visit/stay (not "in transit") in CMB?

Thanks, transpac, I appreciate that reasoned thought. I had about 1 hour of concern yesterday, reading everything I could find. I never considered canceling, but I did wonder if I'd get as far as Singapore and then have to divert to Thailand and begin that part of my trip early.

My reading and thinking calmed me, and I now am not in the least concerned about the trip. The terrorist activity has never been targeted at tourists. It appears to be soldiers (separatists) against soliders and politicians. Yesterday, 12 people were arrested for the murder.

I'll certainly report back on anything I learn once in country. The biggest tourist event of the year is in Kandy on Friday night (perahera, with a procession of 100 elephants and more). The Sri Lankan tourism industry is already reeling from the tsunami; I feel badly that they will now suffer repercussions from this murder.

I'm not sure if there is an English language newspaper in Sri Lanka, with an internet presence, but you can certainly get some news from the websites of the Straits Times in Singapore, and both The Nation and the Bangkok Post have decent websites here in Thailand.

FWIW, I'm leaving for a holiday in Sri Lanka in six days. We'll have to drive through Colombo from the airport north of the city, but we will be spending all of our time in the south of the country. I'm a little nervous because of the recent news; nervous enough to think about a backup plan in case the situation worsens. The likelihood that we'll have any problems seems very low, but colleagues keep coming by and asking if I'm still going.

SanDiego1K, I'm confused by your posts here and elsewhere. You say you are leaving for CMB now and will report back once you are in-country, but you posted a report on Amangalla recently too. Is this upcoming trip your second visit?

It is going to turn ugly soon. It is getting very political

I actually heard about this last Friday before the media coverage began. One of my clients is a close family member of the (former) minister, and there was a scramble to find flights to CMB on Friday :(.

I think it's a reasonable assumption that you have a near zero chance of being affected by something in the couple of hours you are in transit at the Colombo airport. As SanDiego1K said earlier, the terrorist activity has always been directed at the government, and the usual warnings about avoiding large gatherings, etc. are issued by the State Department for Sri Lanka just as they are for places like Bali.

With the information currently available, I imagine the general opinion here at FT would be to go. As experienced travelers, we learn to weigh the risk of any trip to a "questionable" area using facts and not media hype, but in the end, it's a personal decision. For me, I wouldn't hesitate since I was there earlier this year, and will be back there again in a couple of months. I made my first visit to Sri Lanka in the mid 1980s, and have been going back ever since. Mileage runs are a great reason to visit, but the country and people are also wonderful. But that's me. If it's going to make you slightly apprehensive (and you will be anyway, since it's your first visit) then I don't think that's a reason to call off the trip. But if it's going to worry you to the point of being unable to enjoy the journey, don't go.

As of today, I've reached the point that I need to agree with those who argue there is minimal risk as a transit passenger. We're dealing with about a 2 hour window between the time SQ would divert landing (if something was happening right then) and the ensuing takeoff.

Edit: I've clarified the concerns originally voiced in this paragraph below.

I've also run the numbers. Even if I make this turn on schedule, I'm WAY less confident that I'll be doing 3-4 additional turns in CMB by the end of 2006. Of course this is in stark contrast to my confidence that I'll be in Tokyo a minimum of 6 times (and hence turning in BKK or CMB) by the end of 2006.

This lack of confidence necessitates my requalification of NH Diamond before chasing UA 1K. If I follow this logic, strangly enough the difference in redeemable mileage earned if I just stick to BKK in 2005 as opposed to doing 2 turns in CMB is only about 3000 redeemable because it necessitates my crediting NH on UA metal thus foregoing the elite bonus on a number of the UA flights.

What am I left with after NH requalification? Well assuming UA offers it's double EQM promo late this year I'd wind up with 40K EQM which does absolutely nothing for me unless I churned out 30K in pure mileage runs during the promo period. My 1P status on UA is good through Feb 2007.

My non-reimbursable incremental expenses to put this trip play include:
$600 (ex-CMB A fare vs BKK D fare)
$500 (SQ 1 year Open C return BKK-SIN-BKK)
TBD 1 night in HNL hotel

If I cancel, out of pocket I lose:
$150 prepaid SIN Hotel
$100 cancellation of UA award ticket from SIN-CMB
$35 (travel agent fee)

Various perks:
If I go...
1 day on the beach in HNL
1 RT SFO-LAX-SFO in F for college FB game
1 evening on the beach in HNL
Stops permitted in Tokyo both directions
Stops in HKG and SIN anytime
No need to burn NH upgrade coupons on my transpacs
Travel from NRT-SE Asia in UA F as opposed to NH C (is this a perk? ;) )
Dinner with Savage25

So there you go. These are all the factors that I need to parse to ultimately make my decision. I could delay this until December for the low, low price of $135. (IC SIN will allow me to shift the pre-paid reservation to December under the circumstances.)

I suppose that I just really want to do the run, but to me it seems foolhearty not to eat the $135 and start over in December. I've spent a lot of time planning and I don't want to just let it slip away.

Thanks for your opinions and your eyeballs ;)

PS: I'd say that my decision deadline is no more than a week out. For business reasons, I'd need the refund to post tom my credit card in August.

schoflyer, I'm not going to speak to the issue of your status goals and whether CMB runs makes sense. Rather, I'm going to continue to speak to the broader issue of safety.

senior hamachi, well spotted that I have already been to CMB this year and am now returning. I am finishing my CX ticket, and will begin my UA ticket.

I am currently sitting in the Wing at HKG, awaiting my CX flight to CMB. CX certainly perceives no risk for the trip. I've also heard from two people in CMB. One is with the tour company I am using this week, and another is a business associate of an FT friend. Both are very calm:

I understand completely! Please update when time permits. It's clear from my crunching the numbers that a successful run at 1K is not going to happen this year without giving up top tier on ANA. At this point I've decided that I'm not willing to bet my Diamond status on CMB thus will accrue on NH first.

Cheers,

Scho

Where is this coming from? I saw a similar post on the (very) long thread in the Mileage Run forum. I've been in the business for 21 years, and can tell you from experience that there is no such law in effect at this time. IIRC, there were a few years in the 90s when Sri Lanka, among other countries (Egypt and the Philippines are the other two I remember) had a rule like this. I think it was to stop local residents from having tickets issued overseas in a (stronger) foreign currency, then refunding them outside the country for cash, therby skirting currency export regulations.

Also, there was never an IATA rule stating that you could not issue tickets outside Sri Lanka for travel originating inside Sri Lanka. You could do that. It was called a SOTO ticket, which stood for Sold Outside (country of origin), Ticketed Outside (country of origin.) However, by doing a SOTO ticket, the rules for checking HIPs (Higher Intermediate Points) changed. A ticket issued as a SOTO transaction required that a HIP check be performed for all connecting points along the route, rather than stopover points. This made a HUGE difference in the fare. For example, the popular routing CMB-SIN-NRT-LAX, if issued as a SOTO ticket, had to be brought up to the NRT-LAX fare, even though the passenger was only transiting NRT. This was avoided by sending a PTA (Prepaid Ticket Advice) so the transaction becamce a SOTI (Sold Outside, Ticketed Inside.) A SOTI transaction only required that the HIP check be performed when a passenger stopped for more than 24 hours along the way. In January this year, under pressure from the European Union, IATA did away with the International Sales Indicator on tickets, allowing us to issue tickets originating anywhere without checking HIPs at connecting points. Carriers are now getting around this by instituting Country of Sale restrictions on fares in certain markets. Sri Lanka may be the next target. We'll see!

Sorry for the off-topic post above, but I feel that clarification is needed since a rumor seems to be spreading about whether tickets issued outside Sri Lanka for travel originating in Sri Lanka are somehow "illegal." They are not.