Covid-19 reporting stats not credible out of much of SE Asia
Apr 11, 2020, 11:23 am
#1
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Covid-19 reporting stats not credible out of much of SE Asia
Was just looking at some of the WHO-compiled statistics of country infection and mortality rates from the virus (while thinking about when travel may reopen), and maybe it's just me but some of these seem unbelievable.
For example, as of April 10, Vietnam has 255 cases and 0 deaths (total) from the situation? Philippines only 4100 people infected at all? I'm guessing this is purely a function of them not having the ability to test almost anyone...
For example, as of April 10, Vietnam has 255 cases and 0 deaths (total) from the situation? Philippines only 4100 people infected at all? I'm guessing this is purely a function of them not having the ability to test almost anyone...
Apr 11, 2020, 11:48 am
#2
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I live in Vietnam, (in Da Nang area) and I do believe these stats. In a way...
Are they accurate? I don't know. But I do think they are reasonably accurate!
Why?
While we do not have an official lockdown, we are living under a practical lock down. The government has not said I must not go out, but they have requested I stay at home and shelter in place as much as possible.
The biggest barrier to me going out?
Where can I go?
Gym. Closed since 20th March.
School? Closed to students since Feb 3.
Restuarants. Coffee shops. Bars. Beaches. Closed.
Only business permitted to be open now are Food supply, Pharmacy, Gas Stations. Everything else is essentially closed to the public.
Hotels are not permitted to register new guests.
There is 1 flight per day from Da Nang to Hanoi and also 1 to HCMC.
Da Nang is now enforcing a mandatory 14 quarantine on anyone arriving here from either Hanoi and HCMC, as those are the outbreak centres.
There are health check points when travelling by road into Da Nang, where people are stopped, and have their temperature taken, and must complete a small health questionnaire. No it's not a test, and there may be many people out there with the virus who have no symptoms. But as they are not going out, they are not spreading it.
So given the inadequate number of tests being done here, the numbers probably are wrong, but they are trying to prevent a health crisis.
Unfortunately, given that we do seem to have contained the virus relatively successfully, the government has wreaked a devastating economic crisis on us.
Which will be worse in the long term I do not know.
We are scheduled to have social distancing restrictions lifted with effect from the 15th. However there are rumours going around that these will be extended until end of the month.
Personally, I feel the restrictions will remain until we have been 14 days with no new cases. Then they will start releasing us from lockdown.
One teacher told me today that schooling will all be online until 1st July!!! I don't know if that is true, but we will see.
There is a repatriation flight from VN to the UK departing on the 14th. I will not be in it. I'm better off here in Vietnam.
Are they accurate? I don't know. But I do think they are reasonably accurate!
Why?
While we do not have an official lockdown, we are living under a practical lock down. The government has not said I must not go out, but they have requested I stay at home and shelter in place as much as possible.
The biggest barrier to me going out?
Where can I go?
Gym. Closed since 20th March.
School? Closed to students since Feb 3.
Restuarants. Coffee shops. Bars. Beaches. Closed.
Only business permitted to be open now are Food supply, Pharmacy, Gas Stations. Everything else is essentially closed to the public.
Hotels are not permitted to register new guests.
There is 1 flight per day from Da Nang to Hanoi and also 1 to HCMC.
Da Nang is now enforcing a mandatory 14 quarantine on anyone arriving here from either Hanoi and HCMC, as those are the outbreak centres.
There are health check points when travelling by road into Da Nang, where people are stopped, and have their temperature taken, and must complete a small health questionnaire. No it's not a test, and there may be many people out there with the virus who have no symptoms. But as they are not going out, they are not spreading it.
So given the inadequate number of tests being done here, the numbers probably are wrong, but they are trying to prevent a health crisis.
Unfortunately, given that we do seem to have contained the virus relatively successfully, the government has wreaked a devastating economic crisis on us.
Which will be worse in the long term I do not know.
We are scheduled to have social distancing restrictions lifted with effect from the 15th. However there are rumours going around that these will be extended until end of the month.
Personally, I feel the restrictions will remain until we have been 14 days with no new cases. Then they will start releasing us from lockdown.
One teacher told me today that schooling will all be online until 1st July!!! I don't know if that is true, but we will see.
There is a repatriation flight from VN to the UK departing on the 14th. I will not be in it. I'm better off here in Vietnam.
Apr 11, 2020, 1:23 pm
#3
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Philippines is in a lock down. Only pass holders and health workers are allowed. Not only that they are enforcing this using the police and the military.
What should be taken into account is not the positive cases but the deaths. This is because the testing may not be adequate. So the fatality numbers looks to be accurate.
What should be taken into account is not the positive cases but the deaths. This is because the testing may not be adequate. So the fatality numbers looks to be accurate.
Apr 11, 2020, 4:19 pm
#4
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Cases are going to be significantly under-reported everywhere, simply because widespread testing hasn't gone on anywhere. This is true even for fatalities, because many COVID-19 victims died before they could be tested.
Certainly, some governments will intentionally mask the numbers. No one anywhere is surprised that North Korea officially has zero cases.
Certainly, some governments will intentionally mask the numbers. No one anywhere is surprised that North Korea officially has zero cases.