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How long before the Peso collapses (again)

How long before the Peso collapses (again)

Old Jan 13, 2009, 4:21 am
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How long before the Peso collapses (again)

On recent trip to Argentina I was surprised at how expensive it was, contrary to what I had heard and read. While there are some deals (subway less than a peso) it was really quite costly for a somewhat developed country.

Apparently, inflation is running at around 25-30% a year at least and this has cut away Argintina's big price advantage from after the last devaluation what with the exchange rate changing much more slowly than the price level.

I expect a tourist crash in B.A. once the pricing issue gets more publicity and erodes Argentina's rep as a bargain.

Along with the big drop in commodities prices (Argentina's big exports) I suspect this means a big time devaluation of the peso soon.

What do you think?
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 5:02 am
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I haven't been in BA since last July but I still regarded it as decent value as long as you rented an apartment instead of a hotel & avoided the tourist trap restaurants. I could live well in BA off $2,000 a month last July. This still seemed good value.

What exactly did you find expensive?
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 5:14 am
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We had this conversation not too long ago.

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/argen...rs-market.html
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 5:26 am
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Originally Posted by biggestbopper
On recent trip to Argentina I was surprised at how expensive it was, contrary to what I had heard and read. While there are some deals (subway less than a peso) it was really quite costly for a somewhat developed country.

Apparently, inflation is running at around 25-30% a year at least and this has cut away Argintina's big price advantage from after the last devaluation what with the exchange rate changing much more slowly than the price level.

I expect a tourist crash in B.A. once the pricing issue gets more publicity and erodes Argentina's rep as a bargain.

Along with the big drop in commodities prices (Argentina's big exports) I suspect this means a big time devaluation of the peso soon.

What do you think?
Peso collapsing? Tourist crash? Good morning Mr Doom & Gloom! Some of us live in this "somewhat developed" country so neither of those scenarios would be a good thing.

Yes, things are considerably more expensive than when I moved here in 2004 but it is still considerably cheaper than the US or Europe. Argentina has only recently had a reputation as a "cheap" destination. Before the crash of 2001, the cost of living here was one of the highest in South America but tourists still visited. Obviously if Argentina lost its "bargain" reputation, some people would go elsewhere but others would still visit to see the many wonderful things the country has to offer. Paris and London are hardly bargain destinations but tourists still flock there.

If the big devaluation you are predicting happens soon, that will actually benefit tourists as they will be getting more pesos for their $/Ł which will increase their peso spending power and offset the increased cost of things here in Buenos Aires. Unfortunately, the people who will really suffer (again) will be the average Argentine earning a salary in pesos.

BTW, your bargain subte fare is no longer. It just went up to $1.10 yesterday
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 5:27 am
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Indeed. I contributed to that discussion although I noticed it finished in early October.

I still believe the key to decent value stays in BA is avoiding hotels and renting apartments instead.
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 5:53 am
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Originally Posted by britenbsas

BTW, your bargain subte fare is no longer. It just went up to $1.10 yesterday
Why wasn't I informed of this!

I suppose they do that so that now every time someone buys a single or double, the customer has to give the agent a 10 centavo piece or two, rather than the other way around.

Moneda hoarding in this country leads to some of the most entertaining scenes I've seen anywhere... (yes, I lead a quiet, sheltered life)
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 8:46 am
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FYI, BsAs bus and train fares increased about 25% yesterday as well.

For the bus the new fares are:
0-3 km $1.10
3-6 km $1.20
6-12 km $1.25

John
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 9:16 am
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The peso has fallen (more or less) about 15% in the past few months. I am so glad I was there last week when I could ride the Subte for AR$0.90 (US$0.26) instead of $1.10 ($0.32). Without the peso fall, I'd have spent about $0.30 for the trip.

While I didn't do any high end dining, I did eat well, and, for example, 2 respectable pieces of dead cow, a respectable (not high end, but delicious) bottle of wine, and a salad (plenty for 2) came to US$67 when I saw it on the credit card statement. This, of course, did not include the cash tip. This same dinner would have been $100 more at home, and not as good. In fact, a friend was over a few days ago and went to a local Argentine home for dead cow. He described the meal (which included almost the identical wine). He asked me how much I thought the bill was, after he described what they ordered. I said $175. I was only a few dollars off.

Other ripoffs of last week included going to a little empanada and minuta place, and we ordered 4 empanadas and 2 sandwiches, to go. This came to under US$10, and was so much food (and tasty, too) that we actually threw some out (as it was lunch right before going to EZE).

Yes, I know a couple years back the same place would have paid us to eat there, things were so cheap, sometimes we must suffer the costs of inflation and pay a modest sum for a quality product.

Seriously, I have no idea, other than moderate to high end hotels, how Argentina is "quite costly." Often (and this is no reflection on the OP) people who think nothing of spending $10 for a single cocktail in the US, complain about a decent $40, wine included, dinner in Argentina.
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 10:27 am
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Originally Posted by biggestbopper
On recent trip to Argentina I was surprised at how expensive it was, contrary to what I had heard and read. While there are some deals (subway less than a peso) it was really quite costly for a somewhat developed country.
Welcome to the Argentina forums - and thanks for your post.

May I ask what comparison you are making...?

Are you comparing prices in Buenos Aires to Santiago de Chile...? Or Sao Paulo, or Mexico City...? What is your benchmark..?

I ask this because expensive, or in-expensive are both relative terms - and certainly dont mean the same thing from person to person.

Which city do you feel has better prices (and comparable offerings) to what you experienced in Buenos Aires?
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 10:30 am
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Originally Posted by Eastbay1K
Often (and this is no reflection on the OP) people who think nothing of spending $10 for a single cocktail in the US, complain about a decent $40, wine included, dinner in Argentina.
Thank you for posting this, Eastbay1K. I think exactly this all the time when I read some posts, but usually try to control my reactions because some may think I have a vested interest...

BTW, just to add on to your above comment... it should be added that many of the $40 dinners you mention include some sort of beef-steak... which compared to North American prices would make the $40 tab even more "inexpensive".
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 1:03 pm
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Originally Posted by biggestbopper
I expect a tourist crash in B.A.
Oh well, we won't be seeing you back then?
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 3:18 pm
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Originally Posted by biggestbopper
I expect a tourist crash in B.A.
Tourists crash frequently when they rent cars and try and drive there.
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 5:05 pm
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Originally Posted by Eastbay1K
Tourists crash frequently when they rent cars and try and drive there.
It's even more dangerous to be a pedestrian
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Old Jan 13, 2009, 5:43 pm
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Originally Posted by HIDDY
Oh well, we won't be seeing you back then?
^
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Old Jan 14, 2009, 2:49 am
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Gosh, I had the impression that personal attacks were to be avoided on FT ...

As to alternative places which may better or cheaper or both: perhaps Costa Rica, Thailand, Indonesia and even Spain.

In any event, my point is that AR is pricing itself out of the tourist market (pricing discrimination against foreigners isn't helping, either--talked to several tourists while I was there who were upset that they got hit for three times the price at Iguatzu as ARs pay).

As word trickles back about relatively high prices in AR, tourism will certainly drop, especially in view of the current economic situation.
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