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ralfp Sep 6, 2008 9:20 am

Ticket posting time stats
 
Looking at my last 14 posted trips (2 paid, 12 AGR, all NEC), here are the stats for posting times:

Average # of days: 6.9
Std. Deviation: 2.8
Median = Mode = 6
Minimum = 3
Maximum = 13

At least the stats are better than the promised "2-3 weeks on average".

N.B.: I think one or two old ones (plus two trips yesterday) have not posted; I'm too lazy to check now.

What kind of distribution is this? Perhaps more people could post their posting times...

nerd Sep 6, 2008 4:24 pm


Originally Posted by ralfp (Post 10321972)
What kind of distribution is this?

I would think a lognormal distribution would be appropriate (a normal distribution would give you some probability of a negative posting time...).

chuljin Sep 9, 2008 5:34 pm

OK, you asked for it!
 
I meticulously track these things, so the data are handy. :)

Min: 3.000
Max: 168.000
Ave: 9.498
StDev: 14.687
Median: 7.000
Mode: 7.000

Days Tickets
1 0
2 0
3 1
4 9
5 30
6 34
7 54
8 45
9 15
10 8
11 3
12 0
13 0
14 0
15 0
16 1
17 2
18 0
19 0
20 0
21 0
22 0
23 0
24 2
25 0
26 1
27 0
28 0
29 1
30 0
>30 7

Enjoy the analysis. :)

Spokker Sep 9, 2008 6:36 pm

Man, OCD is a hell of a condition.

chuljin Sep 9, 2008 6:51 pm

Ah, when I throw out the ones over 2 weeks, remarkable in their unusuality, it is more prettily normal:
Min: 3.000
Max: 11.000
Ave: 6.930
StDev: 1.549
Median: 7.000
Mode: 7.000

Days Tickets PredTickets
1 0 0
2 0 0
3 1 2
4 9 9
5 30 24
6 34 43
7 54 51
8 45 40
9 15 21
10 8 7
11 3 2

(PredTickets is the [rounded] number of tickets expected if the distribution were exactly normal.)

A couple things to consider:
  1. Thruway bus tickets take considerably longer to post (of my 5, Mean 29, StDev 8.6);
  2. Points post only Tuesday through Saturday, so if you travel a lot on Sunday or Monday, your M/M/M would be closer to 9 or 8, respectively, and the distribution would lopside higher, because you'd have no 7's and 8's, or 6's and 7's, respectively.

izzik Sep 9, 2008 8:04 pm

if you are doing Northeast trips, you may find that trips heading towards NYC will post faster than trips heading away from NYC.


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