(Over)analyzing the redemption chart?
 

There doesn't seem to be another obsessive over analyzing here, for a proper Flyertalk forum. :)

So what are your thoughts on the AGR redemptions, relative to value?

The Chart

From a quick look, it seems like Business class in the Northeast is a complete waste of points, since it's 3500 points extra for an upgrade that may only cost $36. OTOH, on the multi-zone trips, Business class seems like something you should always take over coach because it's only about 15-25% more points.

Actually, that coach fare for the Northeast seems like the best deal in general. 3000 points for tickets that regularly run $100+. Compared to some single zone tickets that I was pricing that that were more like $60-75, that would be almost double the points.

One can get a $100 gift card for 10000 points, so that's one cent per point. Any redemption should do better than that, I think.

A 3000 points one-way on regional coach class BOS-WAS is probably a good redemption. It runs about 3 cents per point.

A 10500 points one-way on Acela first class BOS-WAS is probably a good redemption. Also about 3 cents per point.

I haven't looked into the long-distance sleeper car. I think that's probably also a good value.

One thing to remember is that it costs the same to go a long distance within a zone as it does to go one stop. WAS-BWI is 3,000 points, but so is Newport News-Montreal or Portland, ME.

It's always best to test the geographic limits of whatever "zone" you're redeeming for (including the Northeast Zone and the Special Route zones). The two Special zones out west (Amtrak California-branded services and the Cascades) can be great deals, with $100 end-to-end itineraries pricing out at just 1,000 points. You can also use the zone boundaries to your advantage:
- buy a cheap paid ticket to the edge of a zone & combine with an award ticket (say, Raleigh-Boston = Raleigh-Richmond + Richmond-Boston)
- backtrack: start in zone A, find a connection that takes you through zone B and back to zone A. Two zone travel for the price of one zone.

On the other hand, I haven't found many great "regular" (zone) redemption values. CHI-NOL this winter runs $108, and that's riding one train from end to end. A roomette adds $179. AGR redemption for either is about $0.019 per point, which isn't great.

Something I like about train travel, but which AGR doesn't permit, is the ability to add en-route stopovers.

Except for the fact that there is no train that crosses multiple zones and also offers Business Class. Business Class is only offered on trains that remain within one zone.

Interesting. So to properly use a business-class two-zone award (10,500 pts), you would need to take a route that had you switch trains at one of those cities that's on a zone border?

There are no points on zone boundaries where two trains with business class meet either. The business class two-zone award is presumably only used when at least one segment involved is in (long distance) coach, which presumably explains why the markup for it is relatively low.

When you get two people traveling in a roomette, the redemption value increases dramatically. In your scenario, that would be TWO coach fares at $108 each plus the $179 roomette charge. My wife and I have been redeeming points for travel from Florida to Boston (or Montreal once), and because it was typically too late to get the lowest fare bucket availability on a paid ticket, the points redemption value was QUITE respectable.

I just redeemed a 2-zone bedroom award - using the infamous BHM-LAX (via PDX) loophole routing :D - and got a $/points ratio of 12.1¢/point!

I think another interesting factor is that if you go far enough out, the points are very consistently valued.

California Zephyr, Chicago to Sacramento (two zones) in January:

$145 for coach or 8000 pts, $0.018 per pt
$407 for roomette or 20000 pts, $0.020 per pt
$597 for bedroom or 30000 pts, $0.020 per pt

But in real life, bedrooms inevitably sell out first, then roommettes, then coach seats. And first in this case may mean 3 months out. Also roomettes and bedrooms prices go way, way up when they get into the last buckets. Maybe it's proportionally the same as a coach seat, but $600 going up 100% is much harder on the wallet.

For instance, if I try that same search in September, they still have those coach seats at that price, but the others are much dearer:

$779 for roomette, $0.038 per pt
$1262 for bedroom, $0.042 per pt

Given all that, I'm not sure what the conclusion is. Just that if you're booking far in advance, the sleeping cabins may not be the automatic best user for you points that they are most of the time.

The New Haven-WAS ticket I just had to buy was $111 with a AAA discount, or about 3.7 cents per point. Acela the other way was $138, or 1.7 cents per point. Crazy.

Thanks so much for pointing this out. I hadn't noticed how few points a Cascade trip costs. Even a Portland-Seattle ticket works out to 2.5 cents a point.