value of a point
 

Hi,

How much would you guys guess an AGR point is worth? I'm trying to figure out if I'm better off paying cash or redeeming points for an upcoming trip.

Thanks.

Since they convert to CO miles 1:1, and I value those at least 1.7-2 cents. 1.7 - 2 cents would be my personal number.

Your results may vary.

You can buy them from AGR at 2.75 cents/point as another data point.

I'd value AGR points much higher than that, at least for use on Amtrak long-distance trains. Look a few threads down. A 30,000-point redemption on a train where the bedroom is running $1400 would mean 4.7 cents per point. I've achieved as high as 6 cents per point for a sleeper redemption versus the going fare at time of ticketing! That's on the high side, but even half that value is still decent.

The dollar value of points/miles has come up on FT more times then I can count.

The value of a point is the amount you would be willing to pay for the flight if you paid cash.

Sure you could use 30,000 points for a $1,400 LD sleeper. However would you be willing to pay $1,400 for that sleeper if you didn't have the points? Probably not. So valuing the point at $0.047 doesn't make any sense.

The same goes for that First Class airline ticket to Asia. Maybe it goes for $15,000 and you cashed in 100,000 miles. However that doesn't mean your miles are worth $0.15 each, that is unless if you didn't have the miles you would have paid the $15,000 price tag. The same goes for a luxury hotel suite in Manhattan or Tokyo; would you really pay $900 or more per night without the points?

I've always been hell-bent on being able to travel Amtrak sleeper because it's such a great experience. I've never paid the highest bucket; before AGR if only high fares were available I'd find another date. So while most people probably wouldn't pay for transpac F, I certainly would (and do) pay for some Amtrak sleeper trips. The high-value ones I normally pay with AGR points. Just my personal preference, of course.

GoAmtrak, that's fine you just have to value the AGR point at a lower fare bucket sleeper. A $1,400 two-zone is definitely a higher fare bucked.

Without knowing any more details about the 2 options you have (cash or points) I can give you a quick summary about what makes Amtrak unique among point programs.

1k Trips - These special routes may cost $50 a trip so spending the miles is prob. the best use in the program.

Sleepers - These are a large number of points but fit 2-4 people into an award which makes it an excellent value. This is only for people who take LD trains with sleepers. It's a great redemption for people who would take this type of train (as opposed to commuter type lines which is what is mainly found in the NEC which handles most of Amtrak traffic).

NEC - For 3k you can redeem trips from Montreal - New York, New York - Washington and almost all points between the 2 cities. In peak times these tickets are $100+ which makes the 3k a great value.

Also tickets are refundable as long as you don't print them out from the quik ticket machine (if you have printed it already then you need to mail the actual ticket to Amtrak which takes time).

Few blackout dates and no capacity controls means you can book the emergency ticket with no hassle and no extra miles. There are no fuel surcharges or even tax.

If any of my information is incorrect please correct me and feel free to add anything.

Back to the OP, the value of the points depend on if/what you want to use the points on, and the particular route you are taking. Most people take the same few routes and learn the ticket prices to arrive at their valuation. I would say .02 would be the lowest valuation for an Amtrak point. Use cash for any valuation under that.

If by unique, you mean good value I will agree with that, but it doesn't change the way you should value a points and miles. Which is, to say how much would you be willing to pay in cash for an award ticket. Also, when booking awards you don't earn points including credit towards Select status.

While this may be true 'Special Routes' are only in a few places in the country. I am not saying there aren't any $50 ones, I just only know of ones in the $20-30 range.



This is also true from a dollar standpoint. The family room can hold up to 2 adults and 2 children. This could be a really fun trip with a family, however how many people using their points for the trip would really pay anywhere near what the cost would be for a higher fare bucket trip?

This is true, I just took a 3,000 point NE trip from Washington, DC to Montreal. While I know NE trips in regional can cost $120ish from NYC-DC, i would never pay that. If traveling between the two cities, I frequently take the MegaBus from anywhere from $1-15. So maybe I would value a train ticket at $30 since it is more comfortable and a little faster. So If I cashed in a ticket from NYC-DC, I would only be getting $0.01 per point.

This is true of cash tickets too, so i don't really see any difference or how this makes AGR special.

Again this is a great perk of AGR, but it just needs to be calculated into the cost of travel. Airlines frequently have sales on flights about 10 days out if they are not filling up. Amtrak doesn't offer as much of this and prices almost always move in one direction the closer one gets to departure.


I don't think anything you said is factually incorrect, I just don't see how it changes the fact that you can only value a point as at the amount you would be willing to pay cash for the ticket. NOT the actually cash price of the ticket.

I agree, for my travel patters AGR points are worth about $0.02, maybe $0.03.

FWIW, I disagree with the idea that you can only value a point at what you would be willing to spend in cash. I think it is perfectly rational to value a point at whatever the going rate is, regardless whether you would pay that much for it.

If you buy a $150,000 property that later sells for $300,000, you don't say, "Well, it's only worth $150,000, because I only would have paid $150,000 for it."

The fallacy of that logic is that you could actually resell the property for $300000 or borrow based on that appraised value. Neither is true of tickets.

As someone else pointed out AGR offers to sell points for 2.75 cents/point so that is the maximum that they could be worth even if you can use them to secure a ticket that would otherwise cost 6 cents/per point. And anyone who paid 6 cents/per point paid too much.

The only time I could see this as being rational is if you donated your miles to charity by booking an award ticket for an aid working or something.

You may have grounds to 'value' the gift at the going cash rate for IRS purposes for the travel booked.

Otherwise, you have a very poor argument. Including your example, being able to sell property for $300,000 and having it appraised for $300,000 are very different things.

There is one piece of information that is missing here.

Based on: https://www.amtrakguestrewards.com/i...BuyPoints.html

AGR will only sell you up to 10,000 points per calendar year.

Also, until the end of July they are giving away a 30% bonus. So they are effectively selling points for $0.02115 each.

However, if you want to book a cross country three zone bedroom it would take five years before you could book the 50,000 point reservation.

I agree that I oversimplified this but if you are really determined to BUY that many miles there are additional options (like buying OnePass miles then transferring them to AGR, etc.).

This is true and buying OP miles is a bit more expensive then AGR points http://www.continental.com/web/en-US.../buymiles.aspx

In short, the value of an AGR point is only as much as you would be willing to pay for the ticket with cash.

Depending on where you are going, one-way fares on the Cascades can exceed $100. I just made a redemption from SLM-VAC r/t for 3000 points in business class that would have cost $198 in cash. Since I got the 10% AGR Mastercard rebate, I only used 2700 points. That's a 7.3 cents per point redemption value.

Had I chosen coach seats, the trip would have cost me $164 in cash or 1800 in points (factoring in the Mastercard rebate). That's a whopping 9.1 cents per point value. I know I got a lower value by using business class but in this case I prefered the amenities in business class over the better redemption value in coach.

Had I paid cash for the cheaper northbound leg (still $62, so not "cheap") and used points only for the pricier southbound leg ($102), the value for 900 points would have been 11.3 cents per point. Even without the Mastercard rebate the redemption value would have been 10.2 cents per point.

On the other hand, by ClimbGuy's definition I got zero value for my points if you base it on what I would have been willing to pay. For in this case, what I would have been willing to pay is zero. In other words, this is a joy ride plain and simple. I don't need to go to VAC...but I've never been on the segment btw SEA and VAC and this was a great chance to do that for free.

Are you honestly saying you think your AGR points are worth $0.091?

If you wouldn't have paid a dime for your 'joy ride.' you are not getting $0.091 per point because you don't value the trip at $198.

Doing so is just like the 'As Seen on TV' marketing strategy....

$25 according to whom? Can/will someone buy the 'free' one from me for $25? The answer is: no.

Unless you have already bought 10,000 AGR points you can only value a point upto $0.02115 since if you could have gotten a ticket using points you purchased.

So your best argument could me you got $0.02115 per point (assuming you haven't maxed out buying points)

In response to ClimbGuy: I'm going to clarify my prior post a little.

1) When I say unique I mean that unlike airlines there are "special routes" that change the valuation of an AGR point. An airline will have a basic structure where for 25k points you can fly anywhere in the continental US. subject to availability. Trips must be booked well in advance (to find a seat and now to avoid the new fees for booking less than 21 days before travel) and any changes are costly. Amtrak has their basic zone structure and then adds in their NEC and special routes which can alter a point valuation IF you use those routes.

2) I agree with you regarding special routes. I have only taken the Pacific Surfliner which costs $36. However the Cascades route from Vancouver to Eugene is $121 for a train tomorrow or 1,000 AGR points. If you use that route then your valuation will be much higher. All I'm saying is that this messes up a basic calc of valuation simply by being a option.

3) Sleepers are expensive even in low bucket fares. Still an amazing deal.

4) Quik trak machines have a big advantage for reward and cash tickets. Easy refund ability. No airline will credit your miles back if you miss the flight. This is a huge perk for booking rewards and IMHO makes these points more valuable. The AGR system of allowing you to book anytime with few blackout dates as well as an easy no fee return policy adds value to a AGR point. By knowing that I can obtain reward trips easily I might reconsider a spend as I earn attitude.

Knowing that if I need to get somewhere in the NEC last minute (I live in NYC) and can use 3k AGR points instead of paying a high fare bucket. Basically it comes down to using AGR points for last minute or high bucket fares as well as saving for a special trip like a sleeper. If I lived near a special route, my AGR cc would certainly be my primary card.

I hope we can all agree with the following statment.

Amtrak Guest Rewards points have fantastic redeption value compaired with airline's frequent flyer miles. As such many are justified in valuing an AGR point more then a mile on most airlines.

That said regardless of the program, the value one gets when redeaming points or miles for an award is only as high as the traveler would pay for the ticket with cash.

Until ones buys 10,000 points one cannot value an AGR point more then $0.02115 until the end of the 30% bonus point promo.

The first ten (durring the 30% promo the first 13) special route trips one takes in a year cannot be 'valued' at more then the cost of buying the points.

I disagree with this.

Redemption value is based on the amount in cash a reward saves you (we agree on this).

The fact that you might buy points for less than this amount simply indicates an arbitrage situation. It does not put an upper cap on the value of the points.

The question of how much you save can be viewed in several ways. So are you staying you agree that one can only value a point as much as they would be willing to pay in cash for a ticket? Or do you view amount 'saved' in terms of actual ticket price, regardless of a customer's willingness to pay that amount?

How does it not? The hypothetical Cascades trip for $121, can be had by anyone for a fraction of that cost by buying points.

If you didn't have the 1000 points to book the special route and wanted to travel on the train, you would have two options. One pay Amtrak $121 you would also earn AGR points include Select qualifying points. Your other option would be to buy the points from Amtrak for less then $30. So how could you possibly value the points for anything more then you could buy them for?

Now, if you want to argue that you frequently travel in sleeper and do so buying paid rather then award tickets. Then and only then could you argue the $0.06 or $0.09 that others mention.

A little while back I booked a two zone bedroom using the SDL trip to make for a 6 day rail trip. Had I booked it as a paid reservation it would have cost over $3,000. So does that mean I value AGR points at $0.10 each? It doesn't, I figured I would probably be willing to pay $700-800 for the trip had I booked it with cash. So my true value of the point would be somewhere in the $0.025-$0.0275 range. Unfortunately, I had to cancel the trip because of another conflict.

OK, I edited my above post to address your argument. :rolleyes:

Never mind.

the thread is 100% 'academic' or theoretical.

All I am saying is it makes no sense to value a point at the prevailing cost of a paid ticket, unless you would have been willing to pay the prevailing cash fare.

In some situations that may be the case, I have had this happen to me on two occasions with award travel.

In one situation, I had to travel for a work related purposes my employer reimbursed me for the prevailing fare and I used points.

The other was when I had to go to a funeral. I was going to travel regardless of cost, however because the last minute ticket was so expensive I decided to use points.

It makes no sense to you. It does to others.

If you like thinking about how you are getting a great deal and derive pleasure for feeling you got a good value, then by all means value your points how ever you would want.

ClimbGuy: I agree with you about the point valuation. I would never pay for a LD sleeper and certainly wouldn't value my points used for one as $1000 or more. However people will certainly think that they bought a ticket that, had Amtrak sold that ticket for cash, is valued at $1000. So if you look at what Amtrak is analyzing, then Amtrak redeemed 20k miles instead of $1000 from you (the customer). Based on that calculation, you redeemed your points for a high valuation.

Do you recall reading in the miles forums about people asking what the most expensive ticket they can book using the 25k miles. People replied that the OP should go visit a place he actually wants to go to. Some people just want to redeem for the most expensive ticket possible just to get the "best value for their points".

I will say that I'm nervous of the overhaul of Amtrak's booking system. You might start seeing capacity limits for reward tix. A recent article in the WSJ discussing the new high speed trains was showing that the odds are against amtrak in being chosen as managing these new trains. That's a bit unusual considering Amtrak is similar to a quasi governement company (like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).

I generally don't use AGR points unless I can get at least 3 points per cent at low-bucket fares, so I guess that I value them at price. I have paid more than $600 for a roomette from St. Paul to Washington for two people, so I'd certainly pay 20k points for a roomette from Minot to Washington.

My most recent trip would have cost over 7.5 cents per point. I try to never redeem AGR or airline miles for less than 5 cents.

Exactly. ^

I sell one-of-a-kind pet rocks that are normally $95 each. However, jackal, you can have one for just 95 AGR points.

At a redemption value of 100 cents/point, how many dozen pet rocks would you like to buy?

Keep in mind I'm offering a redemption value not twice, not quadruple, but 10x better than an Amtrak sleeper award! ^

Would you have taken the trip if you would have had to pay over $0.075?


In your case, you may get a higher value then others since you actually pay for sleeper.

You can sell one of a kind pet rocks, however you can't (well at least as far as the TOS go) sell AGR points.

There are two ways you can value anything monetarily.
1. how much you would pay to replace it.
2. how much someone else will buy it from you for

With tangible goods, like a house or a pet rock, you can actually sell them.

When it comes to points or miles, option two does not exist so you can only value points at option one.

My local Mercedes dealer will sell me an S65 AMG for 20,000 AGR points. But wait, that car can ONLY be worth $400 in your world, since AGR points are only worth about two cents per point, and you'd never actually PAY what Mercedes is asking for the car.

Take anything the WSJ says about Amtrak with a big grain of salt -- they are, shall we say, not fans.

Not just "similar to" -- Amtrak is a quasi-government corporation, same as, for example, the U.S. Postal Service.

Don't confuse the editorial page with their news section.

I will give you 30,000 points for the AMG Merc.

When deciding whether to use points on Amtrak, I value them at 2 cents each using the thinking that I would use 25,000 points for a $500 airline ticket which comes out to 2 cents a mile. I don't like to use points on a ticket worth much less than that. Therefore as long as I'm getting 2 cents or more of value on the amtrak ticket, I'm good with that. Obviously, if I had unlimited points like some people have, my thinking would be different.