rxgeek

I applied for the personal Platinum card at least 3 times this year and cancelled the application after receiving the popup. This time I proceeded with the app after getting the popup and was instantly approved. I never had this card before.

MaxVO

Sure, why wouldn't they? You just agreed to pay $700 with no SUB, which is a very poor value by FT measures.

rxgeek

I have a habit of not reading disclosures fully. Thanks for the heads-up. I called and cancelled.

Dr Jabadski

Baffled as to why AmEx readily approves me for some cards with large SUBs while at about the same time and credit history denies me (bonus) for other cards.

Credit scores well over 800, churner for ~ 35 years, LOL/24 between 2009-2018 (since I found FlyerTalk, thank you FlyerTalk ), many prior AmEx personal and business cards, almost all instant approvals. Business Plat in 2016 and twice this year (via targeted offers) with instant approval and 100K and 150K SUBs. First Bus Plat this year was never charged the annual fee, second had the high AF. Significant spend (80K, 30K, 15K) on 4 of 5 AmEx cards this year, minimal spend on Hilton Aspire (due to decreased Hilton stays), almost nothing on a Delta Business card which was opened just for the bonus and to be cancelled at 13 months. (Focusing almost entirely on Business cards from all issuers since getting back to 4/24 a couple of years ago. Admitted flimsy business credentials which rarely have been scrutinized and were acceptable to a few recon calls with Chase and BOA.) Only 1 prior Marriott card, Chase personal Visa in 2014. Same Amex interface, via account login, for all AmEx applications over the past few years.

Multiple applications over the past year, including before and after BOTH Business Plat instant approvals, for the Marriott Bonvoy Business card have met with the pop-up: “Based on your history with credit card balance transfers, American Express welcome offers, introductory APR offers, or the number of Cards you have opened and closed, you are not eligible to receive the welcome offer.” All applications with pop-up were cancelled, for me it’s all 90% about the SUB and this Marriot card would be 100% for the SUB and the Bonvoy points would be a "savings account" to transfer points to some airline programs to show activity and extend miles expiration.)

I understand completely why AmEx might deny me a bonus (or 15 or 20 bonuses ) based on my churning history. I don’t understand why they gladly extend some bonuses (which might be more expensive for them) and deny some bonuses. Seems that 100,000 or 150,000 MR are “more costly” to AmEx than 75,000 or 125,000 Bonvoy + 2 free nights. Not sure if the Bus Plat AF (which they never charged for one account) is the deal maker for Amex.

This post is not a complaint, it’s a question. Any insight to AmEx’s madness (which apparently has little method)? Thank you.

mia

I think it is because they want to be able to continue to make statements like this, which influence analysts and ultimately the share price:

​​​​​​​

Dr Jabadski

Thank you mia. Presuming a churner (like me for example) might NOT be profitable, the link implies that AmEx is willing to lose money in order to boast about new card acquisitions. Doesn’t seem like a viable strategy for long term success.

MaxVO

Very unlikely. AmEx is a highly profitable and competent bank. Appealing to a customer's vanity is just one of the tricks they use.

WrightHI

For every FTer customer who’s diligent about maximizing bonuses and minimizing fees, there are several who set out to emulate but end up as profitable customers when inertia sets in. People who successfully exploit the system are just part of the marketing cost.

Dr Jabadski

(I’m not an economist or financial analyst.) Wouldn’t profits be a higher priority than share price? Supposedly profits drive share price but not necessarily vice versa.

Good points, agreed. Doesn’t explain the differences (between affiliated cards and MR cards) in SUB approval (and retention offers). The policy goal of pop-up-bonus-denial is to eliminate bonuses for potentially UNprofitable customers. Why only apply that policy to affiliated cards (Hilton, Delta, Marriott) and not MR cards?

Any thoughts regarding the fact that retention offers are also significantly different for affiliated cards versus MR cards? Presumably there’s a coherent business decision for the differences (between affiliated cards and MR cards) of SUB approval and retention offers.

(I have no accounting or business training.) Perhaps AmEx sees MR as a LESS costly benefit due to many MR never being redeemed? Maybe they see MR as being a liability but not an expense?

dszrew

may come by choice of the card sponsor/co-brander. they may not want unprofitable or churning customers where Amex might accept them more. the card brand can dictate which offers you see (or not) and set the annual benefits and the annual fee, so why not exclude likely churners?

Dr Jabadski

Makes sense. Also explains apparent general agreement among affiliates for frequent pop-up (no bonus) and minimal retention offers in contrast to MR relative generosity for both types of offers. Could it be that AmEx considers generous MR SUBs (with relatively fewer no-bonus-pop-ups) and MR retention offers as a loss leader?

Still seems that with all AmEx’s resources, they could identify and deny MR churners/unprofitables as easily as they do so for affiliate churners.

(Up until I increased my credit card spend with estimated taxes this year, I was basically a “meet minimum spend, pay full balance on time, cancel at 13 months kinda guy”, not the most desirable credit card customer. Every AmEx instant approval for the past few years has been a (very pleasant) surprise to me, I always expect a pop-up.)

liw5215

I believe that AMEX has a sophisticated algorithm for the pop-ups, and it is a trader secret.

mia

Expectations drive prices, and analysts influence investor expectations. In the long run the company has to perform (produce profits), but in the big picture sign up bonuses are a small expense.

With regard to the differences between Membership Rewards and Airline Mile / Hotel Points marketing:

1) When American Express awards airline miles or hotel points they have to pay for them now, with money. When they award Membership Rewards points they only have to record them as a liability at the valuation they have chosen.

2) Co-branded cards are jointly managed. The card issuer and the sponsor set objectives, decide how many miles or points to spend, and there are periodic reviews. The issuer cannot adjust on-the-fly to meet a short term objective.

SPN Lifer

The AmEx Rewards Abuse Team (RAT) is another factor to consider in the distinctions between Member Rewards (MR) and affiliated cards. AmEx has more direct control over MR points than affiliate points / miles.

Boraxo

I just received the dreaded popup after using a referral link to apply for the Amex Gold personal card. Tried different laptop/browser/ISP/location - no dice.

I have not submitted a new Amex app since Nov. 2021 and my score is 800+ Nor have I had a Gold card since the 1990s. I spend regularly on my (2) Amex personal and (1) biz cards.

However I am wondering if cancellations have an effect? Over the past 2 years I have cancelled the Amex DL Gold, Amex Plat, and Amex Biz Marriott cards, with the Plat < 2 months ago.