Good point(s), thank you. Although repetitive cancelled applications could also be evidence that one simply strongly desires the card - for any of the 3 usual reasons for all cards (bonus and/or ongoing spend rewards and/or benefits).

Break

Is pop-up probability different for a targeted e-mailed application compared to a public offer application or referral link application?

Any guesstimates as to how soon and how often one should (re)apply after receiving a pop-up for someone who has several AmEx cards with regular significant activity?

A few times AmEx approved me for the same card shortly afterwards when I tried an app with a smaller SUB, or did not use a referral from a family member. I guess the bank's algo's decided I did not justify their best option, but were ok with a smaller offer.

Very interesting, thank you. Considering that almost every card has multiple different bonuses, that adds another factor to the usual decision process. Among those factors, for an admitted crack bonus addict (like me), a smaller bonus might be enough to preclude or alleviate withdrawal symptoms (like an alcoholics first drink in the morning) but not enough to produce a high :eek:. Decisions, decisions …

AmEx may also be using bonus addicts to adjust their product portfolio, e.g. give you a pop-up this week for a card that you wanted -- then send a nice targeted bonus offer next week for a card they're currently promoting. ;)

Just to clarify, being in "jail" means they won't give you a sign up bonus, but does it mean they won't even give you the card without a bonus? If I cancel my vanilla Plat card today, any reason I can't apply 6 months from now and get it without the bonus? Surely if I want the card they won't prevent me from getting one?

Every time I have seen the pop up it has invited me to continue the application. I stopped every time except once. I did get that card.

One piece of data is better than none, but I'm not sure if there is a dungeon in Amex jail for the most incorrigible of us or not.

I believe the usual context here is just GETTING the pop-up (at which point I think the vast majority of us click on “cancel application”).

Some military pilots (sarcastically) like to say “better to die than to look bad”. The credit card equivalent might be “better to die than no bonus”. :eek:

Card without a bonus is like a day without sunshine, a body without a soul, a hotel reservation without an upgrade, a business class seat that doesn't lay flat and without nuts; it’s just … unAmerican. ;) ;) ;)

Of course, according to Steve Martin, “A day without sunshine is like, you know, night.” :D

In my case, since I'm looking at canceling a card I already have, and then potentially signing up again in the future, I know I would not qualify for a bonus anyway for that card. At the moment with changing benefits and raising fees, I have some cards that duplicate (useless) benefits and will cancel a few. My wife has a platinum card that will get us lounge access for several months if I cancel my card, then we might cancel hers and sign up again on mine.
Sounds like canceling the card could hurt my chances of bonuses on other cards I might want to add.

Yes, common thought here is that canceling a card, especially an AmEx card held less than 1 year, will hurt chances of approvals and bonuses on other cards,

Not sure why you’d think about canceling an AmEx card that you’d potentially apply for again in the next few years. Some cards, in the past, should have been cancelled specifically to apply (and get a bonus) again a few weeks or months later, that’s what churning was all about. That procedure, except for a few exceptions, is mostly dead now. Definitely dead with AmEx, except for AmEx apparently considering “lifetime” to be “about 7 years”, some targeted or emailed offers, occasionally being able to have multiple identical cards and one person with multiple business EINs/SSNs.

You’re quite prudent to reevaluate cards and benefits and fees, all of us should do that on a regular basis. But part of that process should be the knowledge that a cancelled card is unlikely to be approved for an identical new account and (repeat) bonus anytime soon. 99% of credit card discussions here and on blogs centers on bonuses; the bonus is the medium, it’s all about the bonus, benefits are nice but it’s the bonuses that float our boat(s). (Complimentary $450 or $500 club fee and/or “no $500 or $600 AF first year” can be considered “bonus equivalents”.)

Excellent thought about alternating accounts (for the benefits) with your wife, one of the great advantages in the points-and-miles world of being married. But bear in mind that many cards and/or bonuses can no longer successfully be churned. Not sure if you could alternate Platinums with your wife each year to avoid annual fees/bonus equivalents. AmEx might see that as gaming.

“If we in our sole discretion determine that you have engaged in abuse, misuse, or gaming in connection with the statement credit (or bonus) offer in any way or that you intend to do so, we may not post a statement credit (or bonus) to your account.” None of us wants to leave anything to AmEx’s “sole discretion” :td: . That quote should include “and we’ll probably put you in pop-up jail, maybe permanently! :eek: ”

I have Vanilla Platinum, originally got for lounge access essentially free after using the other annual benefits. Now with the increased annual fee, and benefits that are not of use to me, I end up paying some part of lounge access.
Then I added Schwab Platinum to cash out points, and get double the benefits. Again, with increased annual fee, the benefits do not compensate for the increased fee.
Got a Platinum for my wife so she could get Delta lounge access without me using my airline credits.
Have DL Reserve--companion ticket compensates for the annual fee and now I have 4 cards that give me lounge access.

Bottom line, with the annual fee increase and to me worthless benefits, having so many different cards doesn't make sense, especially when the benefits duplicate.
I can cancel both my Platinum cards and use my wife's card for Priority Pass/Centurion access as her's does not expire for another 10 months. Delta lounge through my Reserve card.
When her card comes due, I might cancel it, then get a Platinum card for myself again (sign up again for the Vanilla or Schwab). Maybe upgrade her DL Plat to Reserve to give her lounge access.
Of course in 2023 the lounge access benefits change again so I'll have to re-evaluate.

they change the rules, I change my strategy for what works for me...

Reads like a well thought out strategy, best of luck, hope it works for you. :tu:

(Thank you for not being offended or getting annoyed with my post #22 above. It may read a little harsh, it’s definitely intended to be tongue-in-cheek amusing without being insulting, which can sometimes be difficult here. Being of the Steve Martin/Saturday Night Live white suits, arrow thru head and wild & crazy guys generation, I love his quote :D :D (in post #22) which I found while searching “day without sunshine”.)
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...d2aa08bfbf.jpg

Data Points
 

Here is my list of Amex applications for this year. Keep in mind all of them have been approved and had sign up bonuses.

Delta Gold - Feb 2021 - 35k skymiles
Platinum - March 2021. - 100k MR
BPP - April 2021 - no bonus available
Gold - April 2021 - 75k MR
Bonvoy Brilliant - May 2021 - 125k Bonvoy Points
Green - May 2021 - 50k MR
Bonvoy Business - June 2021 - 75k Bonvoy Points

In addition I had requested CLI increase at least once, and transferred CL twice. I got room for one more Amex credit card, right? Which one should it be?

Oh, member since 2006, 780-790 CS.

Here's my data point:

AMEX member for ~20 years.
Currently have 2 no fee cards, but essentially no spending other than the occasional AMEX offer
Had MB Platinum in 2016 with 50k bonus. Cancelled after 1 year.
Was AU on someone else's Platinum for a few years, but that's been closed for more than a year.
Last AMEX application was Delta Reserve in 2019, cancelled after 2 years.
Tried for 100k Platinum earlier this year and got the pop up saying not eligible for bonus. Did not continue with application.
Pretty light on cc apps with other banks recently. Maybe 1-2 per year for last 4 years.

Not sure if the denial was for another platinum product within last 7 years or for non-profitable behavior in the past. Haven't tried applying with any other AMEX products since I got the popup.

With the above profile, you might be a desirable candidate for the Chase Sapphire Pref, currently offering 100K SUB.

You read my mind... ;-)