iahphx

You are completely correct -- if you believe the hysterical nonsense and ignore the science. Please come back in a month and tell me if your statement is true.

iahphx

As expected, TSA enplanements yesterday easily hit a new post-COVID record at 862,949. Unsurprisingly, they correlate precisely to COVID fear. With the Sunbelt spike fading -- and no large cities left in America without virus burnout -- COVID hospitalizations and fear will continue to recede in the next few weeks and TSA enplanements will continue to rise. Although the summer vacation calendar is now working against the airline industry, and business travel will be slow to replace leisure demand. On the plus side, September should bring the resumption of some international flying, especially transatlantic flying.

That said, I'd be shocked if the people running the Centurion Lounges are on top of this data. Given who they are likely to be -- urban elites -- they will be behind the curve. If the Lounges reopen in October, I'll be a bit surprised. If you want lounge access at airports, you may need an airline lounge membership for several more months.

synzero

That's a rather odd comparison, since the death toll in the United States from tuberculosis is around 500 per year. Which is a testament to what happens when you have basic public health and health systems that are functional, as they are in most of the developed world. It seems strange to aspire to Third World status when it comes to health care outcomes.
When this pandemic started, I remember talking to some friends of mine who insisted the "hype" about this virus was overblown because only a few hundred people had died. "The flu kills 60,000 people a year! This virus is nothing compared to that!" When I told them that if we don't get this virus under control, hundreds of thousands could die, they thought I was being "hysterical".

As of right now the excess death toll (the number of deaths from all causes above the baseline) is already more than 200,000. Confirmed COVID-19 deaths are at 170,000, and increasing at a rate of over 1000 per day. We're about to blow past 3x the typical annual death toll from the flu.

I find it odd that even now, after all these months of disastrous performance with this virus, we are still arguing that the predictions of the models are overblown. No models are perfect but the historical performance has been pretty good, especially as the pandemic has gone on. If you're interested in the historical analysis of the accuracy of different models, take a look here:

https://covid19-projections.com/abou...al-performance

The models have been very accurate. Again -- there might be some treatment breakthroughs that will change things, but as of now we're going to hit 180K deaths within 2 weeks and blow past 200K before December, almost certainly. I really don't see any reason to scoff at the models right now.

KenTarmac

Those projections are based on science. Please come back in a month and tell me if he’s wrong.

Edit: BTW, why is this debate even in the Centurion Lounge thread?

sdix

To use Trump's analogy if you don't go to a club then it must be open.

kennycrudup

What I'm getting at is more people died (and in the US, probably at a 2:1 margin from just smoking-related illnesses) last year from things that weren't CV, yet we didn't end up putting a bullet in the head of the National/Global economies.

I'm still hearing some States and Counties talking about extending people losing their jobs- I know several blue-collar workers who haven't worked since March/April even though ~75% of the deaths in CA are people over 65 and likely not even working. We've severely overreacted to the threat of CV and I'm certain more people have been materially affected financially and professionally than the 0.028% of deaths (0.007% < 65) in the most-populous state in the US.

Super Mario

Because any business can close any ammenity right now that is unprofitable to them and call it "COVID", while dangling that carrot to keep being a customer for when it comes back. Lounge is too dangerous, but a flight is ok. (Free) Hotel breakfast is too dangerous, but a hotel is ok.

mia

True, but irrelevant because smoking related illnesses are not contagious.

kennycrudup

... and the vast majority of CV infections aren't fatal; the reason we all have to wear these masks is 'cause unlike the cold or flu, nobody can tell if you've got it or not.

(So why are we ruining the lives of people not likely to die?)

mia

Because they may infect people who are likely to die, and because death is not the only outcome that we seek to avoid.

kennycrudup

... and what's the other(s)? Merely "low absolute infection numbers"? If most people are asymptomatic, how is that metric worth tanking the economy over?

(And I'll even "A Modest Proposal"-style conjecture that if "saving those likely to die" is an expectation, the most-likely-fatal demographic has been well-known since Italy; we probably could have locked away a lot of vulnerable elderly somewhere with a LOT less impact to the economy.)

synzero

Surprisingly, in 1918, cities that locked down harder had less economic impact over the long run:

The data speak: Stronger pandemic response yields better economic recovery | MIT News

Sweden, the darling of the “don’t lock down” folks, has an almost 9 percent projected drop in GDP as opposed to Germany, with a 10 percent predicted drop - but Germany’s death rate is 1/5th that of Sweden.

And even Sweden failed to protect their elderly. If they couldn’t do it, do we really think we would have been able to? No way.

South Korea, which has a contact tracing system the envy of the world, took this virus seriously from day 1: they have 305 deaths and projected less than 1% drop in GDP.

The other thing is - there is increasing evidence this virus has a very negative effect on even younger people. More than half of the asymptomatic people in one study showed potentially permanent lung damage. Theres evidence of brain damage in most recovered patients. Heart damage in most recovered patients. Also kidney and liver damage and blood vessel damage. Who knows what sort of long term effects there may be.

But honestly the point of locking down was never to lock down forever, but to lock down long enough to get the virus under control via contact tracing and testing. But we never managed to lock down strongly enough except maybe in NYC to actually get things under control.

I want this thing over with too. But lots of other countries are living their lives already but they have managed to control this virus far better than we have. I do hope to use a Centurion lounge soon but I also want this damn pandemic over and opening up too soon is just delaying that.

kennycrudup

"Strongly enough?!" I know some 20 people- hairdressers, physical trainers, waiters, retail clerks and the like, most who have missed months of work, and about half- some of them people who'd never missed more than a day or two of work in their lives- who haven't worked since March/April. All stuck in their homes with little to do, and all the while the bills are piling up (this is California- Unemployment Insurance and those stimulus checks aren't going to match their pre-lockdown incomes) and rents are going past due and in some cases wondering how they're going to feed their families and keep their residences. Yet you think we need more lockdown?!

I'm beginning to see that FT- where the loudest pro-lockdown/pro-virus-measures voices I come across is- is apparently full of older/retired and/or white-collar workers, which explains both the near-hysteria-level fear of CV* and the blase/unconcerned attitude toward the effects of all this on the working-classes; if I were more-likely to die and had an income regardless I guess I'd be pulling for more lockdowns, too- why should I care?! But I'm saddened by seeing my friends and acquaintances suffer and face uncertain futures (several have had their jobs disappear altogether), and while I'm lucky to have plenty of work myself I can only help so many people out so much.


* - someone seriously posted they were going to let their on-board snacks sit at home in a bag for 14 days before they'd eat them

dw

Those of us on FT may disagree on the merits of government measures that have been taken, but I think what this discussion has shown is that clearly there are far more important things going on in the world than when the Centurion Lounges will reopen.

kennycrudup

Yeah ... sorry for the derailment, guys. I've said my p(ie|ea)ce (I can never remember which is right ) ; back to the regularly-scheduled discussion.