AMEX doing "mass" shutdowns.
#152
Join Date: Sep 2017
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Posts: 1,073
as you had noted, if banks really wanted to nuke this entire community, they can 100%. the technology/algos needed to wipe us out is trivial. citi AA train is a great example.
#153
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 267
Except that before we didn't have computing power to perform more sophisticated tree searches and ability to handle large data sets in reasonable time. The underlying statistical methods are more or less the same, ability to run complex simulations is not. The range of objectives set for the "two engineers" (Beavis and Butthead?) is too large to meaningfully speculate about, since you don't need machine learning to just weed out "gamers", but you might need it to figure out their net effect in a larger context. In other words, AMEX might be losing on gamers in one domain but gains more in another, which is a more complex problem to figure out.
#154
Join Date: Feb 2013
Programs: Hyatt Globalist, MLife Gold, Marriott Gold, HHonors Gold, Caesars Diamond, Amex Plat
Posts: 5,891
I know there have been issues for self-referrals, but what about spouse referrals? I'm assuming they are fine, even encouraged, given the T&C language. But with all the stringencies lately, I'm now wondering.
"This program intends for you to invite only your interested personal friends, family and known acquaintances to take advantage of the Card Offers above utilizing the referral link and sharing tools we provide."
"This program intends for you to invite only your interested personal friends, family and known acquaintances to take advantage of the Card Offers above utilizing the referral link and sharing tools we provide."
Last edited by Stgermainparis; Nov 18, 2019 at 8:25 am
#156
Moderator: Travel Buzz
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Sunny San Diego
Posts: 3,090
<quote>Theyre treated the same, those all have different scores but their values affect your overall risk/reward score for Amex. If that overall score reaches a certain threshold (which theyre still experimenting with what exactly it will be), you will get shut down. What theyre doing is based on the same ML models that are used at Amex for AML and fraud prevention. The shutdowns will happen in small waves because one giant hit would be a massive drain on resources and disruption to their overall business, including drawing negative public attention outside of the churning community. That would scare people who are profitable but think theyre winning. They are also incrementing shutdown waves because of the resource usage it takes to identify accounts and assign a score based on the new indicated risk factors. When shutdowns are triggered, they begin combing through the new dataset. Right now, the model only looks back two years.
The clawbacks on self-referrals were a pilot program to this weeks events, not an entirety separate event. The same model that identified self-referrers was used for these shutdowns.<end quote/comment on Doctor Of Credit website>
The Bluebird and Redcard shutdowns had a similar wave pattern. I only know one person who has survived with a Bluebird to this day, and that person actually still does some gc loading. I do think it's strange if Amex focuses on a retro data profile-- 2 years now and then even further back? Instead, you'd think they'd be battening down the hatches for all future gaming activities.
I also wonder if the number of accounts could be so large that "a giant hit would be a massive drain on resources." That statement would indicate a large number of customers, not a few heavy hitters.
The clawbacks on self-referrals were a pilot program to this weeks events, not an entirety separate event. The same model that identified self-referrers was used for these shutdowns.<end quote/comment on Doctor Of Credit website>
The Bluebird and Redcard shutdowns had a similar wave pattern. I only know one person who has survived with a Bluebird to this day, and that person actually still does some gc loading. I do think it's strange if Amex focuses on a retro data profile-- 2 years now and then even further back? Instead, you'd think they'd be battening down the hatches for all future gaming activities.
I also wonder if the number of accounts could be so large that "a giant hit would be a massive drain on resources." That statement would indicate a large number of customers, not a few heavy hitters.
#157
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Florida
Posts: 29,731
I know there have been issues for self-referrals, but what about spouse referrals? I'm assuming they are fine, even encouraged, given the T&C language. But with all the stringencies lately, I'm now wondering.
"This program intends for you to invite only your interested personal friends, family and known acquaintances to take advantage of the Card Offers above utilizing the referral link and sharing tools we provide."
"This program intends for you to invite only your interested personal friends, family and known acquaintances to take advantage of the Card Offers above utilizing the referral link and sharing tools we provide."
Some private groups do A to B to C to D to A that kind of referrals and nobody has suffered.
#158
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Sunny AZ
Programs: HH Diamond, Sixt Platinum, IHG Spire Ambassador, Marriott/SPG Gold .....
Posts: 3,203
I know there have been issues for self-referrals, but what about spouse referrals? I'm assuming they are fine, even encouraged, given the T&C language. But with all the stringencies lately, I'm now wondering.
"This program intends for you to invite only your interested personal friends, family and known acquaintances to take advantage of the Card Offers above utilizing the referral link and sharing tools we provide."
"This program intends for you to invite only your interested personal friends, family and known acquaintances to take advantage of the Card Offers above utilizing the referral link and sharing tools we provide."
#159
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Sunny AZ
Programs: HH Diamond, Sixt Platinum, IHG Spire Ambassador, Marriott/SPG Gold .....
Posts: 3,203
Multiple referrals for the same card etc. is probably the problem here.
#161
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Sunny AZ
Programs: HH Diamond, Sixt Platinum, IHG Spire Ambassador, Marriott/SPG Gold .....
Posts: 3,203
#162
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Florida
Posts: 29,731
Unless you have read the actual posts, I would not speculate what you have done so.
On Reddit at the beginning of the wave, posted in the Discussion thread among many other things not just AMEX shut down, the posters said they referred DIFFERENT cards when others like you speculated they were doing same cards. What the posters suspected were they have done so 4 to 5 cards between spouses. They got both claw backs followed by shut down.
My theory is, AMEX does not think referral between spouses are kosher. I further suspect if you use different address then you may escape the algo for spousal referrals.
#163
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Sunny AZ
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Posts: 3,203
#164
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Newton Centre, MA, USA
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Posts: 2,192
No.
Unless you have read the actual posts, I would not speculate what you have done so.
On Reddit at the beginning of the wave, posted in the Discussion thread among many other things not just AMEX shut down, the posters said they referred DIFFERENT cards when others like you speculated they were doing same cards. What the posters suspected were they have done so 4 to 5 cards between spouses. They got both claw backs followed by shut down.
My theory is, AMEX does not think referral between spouses are kosher. I further suspect if you use different address then you may escape the algo for spousal referrals.
Unless you have read the actual posts, I would not speculate what you have done so.
On Reddit at the beginning of the wave, posted in the Discussion thread among many other things not just AMEX shut down, the posters said they referred DIFFERENT cards when others like you speculated they were doing same cards. What the posters suspected were they have done so 4 to 5 cards between spouses. They got both claw backs followed by shut down.
My theory is, AMEX does not think referral between spouses are kosher. I further suspect if you use different address then you may escape the algo for spousal referrals.
#165
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,857
No.
Unless you have read the actual posts, I would not speculate what you have done so.
On Reddit at the beginning of the wave, posted in the Discussion thread among many other things not just AMEX shut down, the posters said they referred DIFFERENT cards when others like you speculated they were doing same cards. What the posters suspected were they have done so 4 to 5 cards between spouses. They got both claw backs followed by shut down.
My theory is, AMEX does not think referral between spouses are kosher. I further suspect if you use different address then you may escape the algo for spousal referrals.
Unless you have read the actual posts, I would not speculate what you have done so.
On Reddit at the beginning of the wave, posted in the Discussion thread among many other things not just AMEX shut down, the posters said they referred DIFFERENT cards when others like you speculated they were doing same cards. What the posters suspected were they have done so 4 to 5 cards between spouses. They got both claw backs followed by shut down.
My theory is, AMEX does not think referral between spouses are kosher. I further suspect if you use different address then you may escape the algo for spousal referrals.