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Speculation: New Amex premium card?

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Old Sep 28, 2016, 2:33 pm
  #16  
 
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The need to start giving bonuses for non-US spend in bonus categories.
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Old Sep 28, 2016, 4:43 pm
  #17  
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Originally Posted by davie355
Just dreaming here...
  • Metal card
  • 1:1 transfer to SPG
  • 3x MR on travel and dining
  • 2,500 bonus MR for every $5,000 spent
    • effectively 1.5x everywhere, a la Chase Freedom
  • 1 MR = 1.5 cents on flights and hotels through Amex Travel
  • Free swag (e.g., "Membership Rewards" T-shirt or water bottle) mailed to cardmember at the end of every month in which there was at least one transaction every day
  • Either:
    • $150 annual fee, no travel credit
    • $450 annual fee, $300 travel credit
    • $695 annual fee, no travel credit, but a free iPhone every year
    • $995 annual fee, $300 travel credit, and a free iPhone every year

At least one $995 AF card is currently on the market: the MasterCard Gold card.

Replace "free iPhone" with anything of substantial value, mass appeal, and practical use. I think Amex's gifts to Centurion members is something that could be done for the mass affluent.
Is there really any such thing? IMHO it would have be something that is more universal appeal than an iPhone (50% or so of people use Android instead).

But what is there like that where people aren't divided into one camp or another (and refuse to switch)?

Besides, if you're assuming that the base fee is $150ish ($450 - $300 travel credit), then what kind of iPhone can Amex get for $550? Last year's model? Do you realize how much iPhones cost if you pay for them outright (no contract, no monthly charges)?

Meanwhile, is there any precedent for MR transfers from one card being different than MR transfers from another card? Amex doesn't keep track of "sponsor accounts" the way Citi TYP does AFAIK.

Finally, why bother having a special transfer rate for a program which is going away circa 2018?
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Old Sep 28, 2016, 6:07 pm
  #18  
 
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Originally Posted by mia
the current 3:1 rate maintains equilibrium with Chase Ultimate Rewards.
That's if you transfer Chase to Marriott, which is generally inadvisable since Chase to Hyatt requires far fewer points for the same caliber of hotel. Amex Membership Rewards has no competitive hotel partner at the moment.

Originally Posted by notquiteaff
Is that a joke? The last thing I need/want is more t-shirts or water bottles.
Small gifts like these are a great investment in customer satisfaction.

Originally Posted by NYCRuss
I do not want a metal card. I like having contactless Amexes.
Add the card to Apple Pay.

Originally Posted by sdsearch
Is there really any such thing? IMHO it would have be something that is more universal appeal than an iPhone (50% or so of people use Android instead). [...] Do you realize how much iPhones cost if you pay for them outright (no contract, no monthly charges)?
A base model iPhone of the newest variety is $650 retail, without any sort of discount. Amex could have cardmembers trade in their previous smartphones, which go for $300 on the used marketplace, if in good condition.

Just as Amex asks you to choose an airline for your travel credit, they could easily ask you to choose iPhone or Android for your annual gift. Smartphones are about as universal as you can get in the $650 ballpark. The 50% statistic is not meaningful here because Android is disproportionately popular among lower-income people who would not be in Amex's demographic target.
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Old Sep 28, 2016, 6:09 pm
  #19  
 
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Originally Posted by sdsearch
Finally, why bother having a special transfer rate for a program which is going away circa 2018?
Wait, I have to use all of MR points by 2018?
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Old Sep 28, 2016, 6:12 pm
  #20  
mia
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Originally Posted by davie355
That's if you transfer Chase to Marriott,
Which is the only comparison that would be of interest to Marriott. American Express cannot unilaterally change the transfer rate from Membership Rewards to any partner, and I do not foresee that Marriott would agree to a change that would disadvantage Chase.
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Old Sep 28, 2016, 6:21 pm
  #21  
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Originally Posted by OverThereTooMuch
Wait, I have to use all of MR points by 2018?
MR? Do you mean Membership Rewards or Marriott Rewards? American Express has no relationship with Marriott Rewards, only with Starwood Preferred Guest. We do not know which banks will issue cards for the combined program in 2018, but it wouldn't be sensible for American Express to launch a new product based on their SPG relationship due to that uncertainty.
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Old Sep 28, 2016, 6:25 pm
  #22  
 
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Originally Posted by davie355
Smartphones are about as universal as you can get in the $650 ballpark.
Huh? I certainly don't value a smartphone at $650, not when I can buy a reasonable alternative for half that.

Originally Posted by davie355
The 50% statistic is not meaningful here because Android is disproportionately popular among lower-income people who would not be in Amex's demographic target.
It's not meaningful to you. Others, like me, feel differently. Smartphones are a non-starter as swag. Hopefully Amex has more appealing ideas for whatever they're planning.
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Old Sep 28, 2016, 7:17 pm
  #23  
 
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I'd rather see the Platinum become a more rewarding card for unbonused spend than adopt bonus categories that overlap other cards. 2500 MR points for every $5000 spent would be nice, but knowing Amex, it would be something more to the tune of 25,000 points after $50,000 if they did it at all.
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Old Sep 28, 2016, 7:33 pm
  #24  
 
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Originally Posted by jordan_h
I'd rather see the Platinum become a more rewarding card for unbonused spend than adopt bonus categories that overlap other cards. 2500 MR points for every $5000 spent would be nice, but knowing Amex, it would be something more to the tune of 25,000 points after $50,000 if they did it at all.
That benefit would also overlap with other cards already on the market - the AmEx Everyday Preferred (and if we are viewing MR/UR as roughly equivalent, the Chase Freedom Unlimited as well).

Edit: Which is not to say it wouldn't induce myself and others to shift spend to it. In my case, it would just be shifting from the EDP to the Platinum though, which I believe would be a minor net loss for them - greater liability on purchase protection with the Plat, but equal (I assume?) revenue from interchange fees.

Last edited by bodiddely; Sep 28, 2016 at 7:39 pm
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Old Sep 28, 2016, 7:45 pm
  #25  
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Originally Posted by davie355
Just as Amex asks you to choose an airline for your travel credit, they could easily ask you to choose iPhone or Android for your annual gift. Smartphones are about as universal as you can get in the $650 ballpark. The 50% statistic is not meaningful here because Android is disproportionately popular among lower-income people who would not be in Amex's demographic target.
Way fewer of the Android users I know feel the need to replace their phones every year, the way a lot of iPhone users I know feel. (Tho a few iPhone users dropped that feeling when Apple recently got rid of the headphone jack.)

And Android phones on average are less expensive that iPhones (because there is competition within the Android phone market, while there is no competition within the IOS phone market).

It's also unclear just how long phone replacement every year will be the fad it's been the past few years. There's only so far they can take phones before phone software will continue to update but there'll be fewer and fewer additional features that will make people feel the need to update the phone yearly.

And this whole proposal for tying it to the annual fee requires something that people feel the need to get yearly. IMHO travel works much better than phones. Travel is a wide category (airlines, hotels, etc), and the equivalent of it with phones is not phones but electronics in general (with phones as just a subset).

It can certainly make sense to have a phone rebate for a phone-related card (the way Citi's AT&T Access More did with a signup bonus), but this doesn't seem like it will be a phone-related card.

If they want to make it "more premium", they could change it from any old travel to only "premium" travel of some sort being the rebate: Only purchases in first/business airline cabins, only bookings for luxury hotels, something like that.
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Old Sep 28, 2016, 7:49 pm
  #26  
 
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Originally Posted by davie355
Add the card to Apple Pay.
You can add the card to Apple Pay. Then you don't need a metal one.

And if you're in a situation where the card needs to be inserted into a machine, you'll be far less likely to experience the card getting jammed or stuck.
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Old Sep 28, 2016, 9:24 pm
  #27  
 
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Originally Posted by mia
MR? Do you mean Membership Rewards or Marriott Rewards? American Express has no relationship with Marriott Rewards, only with Starwood Preferred Guest. We do not know which banks will issue cards for the combined program in 2018, but it wouldn't be sensible for American Express to launch a new product based on their SPG relationship due to that uncertainty.
Ah, I see the reason for the confusion here. Thanks for clarifying.

(I thought it was referring to Membership Rewards ending)
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Old Sep 28, 2016, 10:07 pm
  #28  
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Originally Posted by mia
Which is the only comparison that would be of interest to Marriott. American Express cannot unilaterally change the transfer rate from Membership Rewards to any partner, and I do not foresee that Marriott would agree to a change that would disadvantage Chase.
Are you sure about that? Of course none of us is privy to their agreement, but I imagine that Amex "buys" points from airlines and hotels for a negotiated amount. Their agreement may be a bit more complex, but I don't see why Marriott would care how those points are handed out.

Originally Posted by roundtree
Huh? I certainly don't value a smartphone at $650, not when I can buy a reasonable alternative for half that.

It's not meaningful to you. Others, like me, feel differently. Smartphones are a non-starter as swag. Hopefully Amex has more appealing ideas for whatever they're planning.
I agree. I certainly don't buy a new phone every year, nor do I spend anywhere near $650 on one. I imagine that if a company started doing this, a secondary market would quickly develop for these phones and drive down the price.
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Old Sep 29, 2016, 5:35 am
  #29  
 
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Originally Posted by davie355

The 50% statistic is not meaningful here because Android is disproportionately popular among lower-income people who would not be in Amex's demographic target.
Someone's been drinking their Apple Kool-Aid today.

You may be surprised to learn that some people don't measure their self-worth by what type of gadget they carry in their pocket - even affluent people.
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Old Sep 29, 2016, 8:38 am
  #30  
 
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He may not have put it in a very nice way but he's right about the demographics.

http://blog.magmalabs.io/2016/02/12/...velopment.html

Android

Household Income:
* Less than $30,000/ year: 28%
* $30,000 – $49,999/ year: 27%
* $50,000 – $74,999/ year: 31%
* $75,000+/ year: 31%


iPhone

Household Income:
* Less than $30,000/ year: 13%
* $30,000 – $49,999/ year: 23%
* $50,000 – $74,999/ year: 25%
* $75,000+/ year: 40%

What this doesn't show is that there are, by several orders of magnitude, more Android users that iOS users. Android has market share "81.5% of smartphones globally." So numerically there are way more high earners using Android than there are on iOS but as a percentage it's the other way round.

Lies, damned lies and statistics...
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