OneWorld Ruby upgrade probabilities
 

It's been a long time since I've had airline status - but I'm about to achieve OneWorld Ruby this year via Alaska (Atmos Silver).

https://www.alaskaair.com/atmosrewar...ntary-upgrades
https://www.alaskaair.com/atmosrewar...RoMzY4MjAwNTY0

So I see AA Main Cabin Extra upgrades start at 24 hours prior and FIrst Class upgrades are theoretically possible

My question then is for SFO/LAX/SEA --> DFW or MIA, then DFW/MIA -> SJO (costa rica)

How probable are such upgrades if not traveling during peak seasons (No holidays on either end for example)

Is there any such tool that I could use to guesstimate this in advance? Expertflyer?

And from my reading, these complimentary upgrades do NOT extend past Central America?

For MCE, there should be seats remaining at T-24 (for each flight) if you're quick.
For F, slim to none, especially through DFW, you'll be all the way at the absolute bottom of the upgrade list. I've seen it happen, but only to regional destinations, or in the case of IROPS.

EF for MCE is a reliable indicator, but not for F as you're at the bottom of the list.

If I read this right, you're an AS elite on AA metal. The chances of FC upgrades are basically nonexistent since you're priority would be after all the AA golds.

Trying to buy a FC ticket to DFW or MIA from the west coast at 24 hours out can be very difficult.

in the "good" old days when AA would issue certs for domestic upgrades.. with more flights then today,
with me starting my life with AA.. I able to upgrade quite a few of my flights.. DFW- LAX. ORD -LAX etc
would always count out the mileage to make sure I got max use of my 500miles certs

today.. even with my status.. upgrades are now more of a blue moon then the norm

I will say, and I'm not the only one, that upgrades depend more on where and when you're flying than on your status. The others are right that (mainline) flights touching DFW are very hard for upgrades, so unfortunately for OP the chances of a First/Business class upgrade on that trip to SJO are slim to none.

On the other hand, though, it's fairly common for everyone on the upgrade list to clear on short regional hops not touching DFW. So if OP has another shorter trip coming up, they may well end up in First Class.

And yes, the complimentary first/business class upgrades are only for flights within North America.

I'll second this but say that I have gotten a good number of DFW upgrades. My overall upgrade rate is around 90-95%, but it is because primarily the times/days of the week I fly. I've gotten plenty of upgrades on CLT<->PHX, PHX<->SMF, GSP<->DFW, DFW<->SMF because of the scheduling, and also on shorter regional hops like GSP<->CLT. Where I haven't ever gotten upgrades is leisure travel to the Caribbean, etc. - I have been first or second on the list on these but it doesn't clear. And to be fair, I typically look at the flights I've booked about 120 hours out and those ones usually have a fully booked front cabin, so no one is getting upgraded in advance.

Just ticketed SEA-PHX-MEX for 1st week of November. First test! Let's see what happens. Only 8k AA miles for Econ, over the 35k Alaska miles - AA business redemption I had and just canceled.

Though surely will go through DFW/MIA again in future - but those will be South American destinations - so I guess this whole upgrade thing is irrelevant (Central America only).

I'll be happy with any MCE upgrades for the short SEA-PHX-MEX routing. (Put in my Alaska #, so i see / chose a 'preferred' seat - which I know, is just location, still good to get off faster for the short 1 hour connection) I'll consider any upgrade beyond that wholly unexpected.

Actual upgrades as a non-AA OW elite. Unless the route is a very oddball route where there isnt a lot of upgrade traffic (e.g., PHX-TIJ) I would say the chances are minimal. You have to have a flight where every AA FF who is eligible for an upgrade has either upgraded or purposely declined the upgrade (family that doesn't want to split up). Best chance of that happening is, as noted above, CR700 or E175 flights where the upgrade queue is zero.

I have seen them, but almost never on mainline.

Did you end up getting the upgrade? I’m wondering the exact same thing as I’m about to hit AS silver on Dec 29. What the upgrade odds are flying out of LGA (but could potentially do ALB if better)

LGA to where? To any of AA's hubs, no chance. To some Eagle destinations at odd times, it's possible. F does not go out full always, although AA sells those buy-ups really cheap so it's still hit-or-miss. For any non-elite checking a bag it's almost a no-brainer to take the buy-up.

More broadly, flying on AA to/from a UA or DL hub also has decent chances IME, especially late night or early morning.

we likely have a trip to SAT in June. Can fly to IND, CVG, or CMH 4/1. Any of those have better chances than others?

SEA-PHX, just chose MCE in advance. I think I had an exit row - so that was comfy.

PHX-MEX I did get upgraded to first class! Kind of suspected that might happen for the MEX flight - being a lower cost market.

I've had good luck with some West Coast regional routes (Embraer 175) on Alaska. I've always been able to choose Preferred seats (Ok maybe I paid once - $15 or what not)...and as of today - 3 / 4 upgraded to first class! These are not ultra high demand routes.

So..this One World Ruby status is turning out alright. I also have a Alaska Summit credit card, that might have been a factor on 1 segment? not sure. Other two flights have open first class seats, after upgrade.

Maybe I'll spin the wheel again on AA / Alaska out of Costa Rica - USA next year. I could guarantee a lie flat for 35k Aeroplan on Copa, or use half the AA mileage in econ and just hope I get upgraded or at least can choose MCE. Off-season CR flights, so good probability. TBD. Ticketed flight down with lie flat Copa (And a couple econ shorter hop connectors - maybe those get upgraded? no upgrades as I don't have Star alliance status) -- which I value more highly. Return flights you go home and chill...so somewhat less important. A lie flat from PTY-SFO would be nice though.

Maybe IND? But at the end it's so hit or miss, I'd take the most convenient airport. To any of these you're almost certain to get a MCE seat (or maybe even a row in Y) and its such a short flight...it's not worth deviating for an elusive upgrade. I've personally declined upgrades on the E170 short hops when I can get an entire row to myself vs being assigned next to someone on the C/D side in J.

One World status has nothing to do with first class upgrades on AA/AS. Upgrades are not a One World benefit.

As noted upthread, AA and AS have a reciprocal agreement extending upgrade benefits to the other carrier's frequent flyers.

thanks for responding