Price Variability
 

I know this is not the best place to post my newbie question, but I could find no generic airline forum to make my post. Thanks for understanding
I was always told that airline prices fluctuate based on dynamic pricing. Is this still correct?
The reason that I ask is that last year, I booked 2 international flight (1 rt/1 muti-city). I began my price/airline search early ( 8/9 months out) to get a baseline price (checking each domestic carrier's website), and then set alerts in Google Flights for specific dates/destinations, not specifying carrier.
I also searched incognito every month or so (in the beginning, then more frequently as the dates got closer) looking for the best price (and used different devices)
My experience was that prices barely moved over the year (until really close to the departure date when they skyrocketed)
Why don't I see fares ever drop (okay, maybe a few dollars lower). I really don't even see prices increase much. Maybe this is because I buy premium economy' tickets?
Am I doing something wrong?
In October, I plan to find an Intentional/PE fare for an April date. Hoping some guidance will help me get the best fare
PS Although 2 of us travel, I always do my search on 1 traveler.
Thank you

If you're looking for AA guidance, we can only say that yes - prices do fluctuate based on demand and competition. Buying 7-8 months out is fine. In your case an intl PE fare for April is usually not huge demand if it's to Europe versus going in June - August, for example. But every market/route will have variability based on a huge number of historical data points that go into the algorithmic pricing. With AA and some others, you can request a trip credit for a fare (except Basic Economy) difference if you see the price drop after purchase. That credit can be used on a future flight within a year.

Thank you. Much appreciated.
For AA, can you think of any reason why my PHX/ATH price checking never showed any functions in fare price, regardless of how many times and when I checked?
Tiz a puzzlement!

You'll never get a real answer of why that specific route for the dates you are checking hasn't changed. It's possible it can change by the time I finish typing this. If you really want to get from Phoenix to Greece on any specific dates, if you find the price is within your budget/liking, go and book it. If you keep delaying, it may go up and make this trip out of your budget or more expensive. The great thing is, except for basic economy, if you buy the ticket now and then find a price reduction in the future, you can call AA to get them to give you a Trip Credit for the price difference for a future flight.

You’re asking a great question, and it sounds like you’re doing a lot of the right things already. To answer your question about dynamic pricing and why fares may not move much until closer to departure, it helps to understand a bit about how airline revenue management works.



Airline Inventory and Revenue Management 101



Airlines use sophisticated systems to manage both fare filing and inventory control. These are two different but connected concepts:



1. Fare Filing (Pricing Rules)



This is the published part of the system. Airlines file fares with pricing rules via systems like ATPCO. These rules include:

• Base fare price

• Advance purchase requirements (e.g., 21-day advance)

• Minimum/maximum stay

• Change and refund penalties

• Fare class (e.g., “W”, “Y”, “J”, etc.)



Once these fares are filed, they’re visible to booking systems (Google Flights, Expedia, airline websites, etc.). Just because a fare is filed doesn’t mean it’s always available for purchase—this is where inventory comes in.



2. Inventory (Seat Availability by Fare Class)



This is the availability side of things. Airlines assign a limited number of seats to each fare class. For example:

• There might be 10 seats in the “W” class (a lower-priced premium economy fare)

• 5 in “P” (a higher-priced premium economy)

• And 7 in “J” (full fare business class)



The number of seats made available in each class fluctuates based on the airline’s forecast of demand. This is where revenue management steps in—airlines want to maximize the total revenue on a flight, not just sell the cheapest seats. So they manage how many seats are available at each price point depending on:

• Current bookings

• Historical data

• Seasonality

• Demand predictions

• Competitive pricing



That’s why fares don’t always drop—or rise—in a linear way. Often, you’ll see prices stay fairly flat until the airline gets better visibility into demand (often around 60–30 days out), and then they either:

• Open cheaper fare buckets to stimulate demand (if bookings are weak)

• Close cheap fare buckets and push only expensive options (if demand is strong or they expect last-minute business travelers)



Why You May Not See Much Fluctuation



A few reasons might apply in your case:

• Premium Economy fares are less volatile than economy fares. Airlines file fewer price buckets in this cabin, so there’s less room for fluctuation.

• You’re searching without specifying carriers — Google Flights alerts can’t track fare class availability, only total price. If a lower fare is available but sold out in inventory, you won’t see it.

• You’re watching filed fares, not inventory changes — Just because a lower fare exists doesn’t mean the airline is offering seats at that price for your date.

• You’re traveling on popular dates/routes — On high-demand routes (or if the airline sees steady bookings), fares may never drop.

• Incognito mode doesn’t affect pricing — That’s mostly myth. Airlines don’t change fares based on your browsing history—prices change due to revenue management, not cookies.



Tips to Optimize Your Search

• Search by fare class when possible. Use tools like ExpertFlyer or ITA Matrix to see inventory levels by class (e.g., “W5” means 5 seats in W class are available).

• Set Google Flights alerts for specific carriers, not just “any airline.” That can give you more accurate insights.

• Consider booking when you find a fare that’s aligned with historical norms for your route—trying to “game” the system too much often leads to paying more.

• Use tools like Google Flights, Hopper, or Kayak Price Trends to spot good timing based on historical pricing patterns.

You are amazing! Thank you for such a detailed and educational reply to my question.
Your reply certainly clears up my question
I am grateful to you that I finally understand

I often use miles to lock in speculative bookings because doing so doesn't convert cash to AA money.

While I dumped in a few notes, you can thank ChatGPT for the help here :-)

Good idea.

Note that for TATL fares, the Seasonality requirements for cheaper fares will actually be specified in the fare rules and not just a factor in fare class availability. Another factor that is generally found in roundtrip TATL fare rules are day of week travel requirements (in addition to min stay requirements). The cheapest roundtrip TATL fares will generally require Sun - Wed outbound travel from US and Tue - Thu travel return travel back to US as below. If you fly outbound on Thu - Sat, or inbound on an Fri - Mon, that will typically bump you up into a somewhat pricier fare filing in that direction of travel.
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...79dcbd2078.png
These fares have an 'X' in third position of fare basis code. Like the following:
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...85d8eb26a0.png

Roundtrip fares that apply to weekend travel will have a 'W' in that position.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...5e3d7acb39.png
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...3a0c957403.png

The 4th position is the advance purchase requirement. The number '9' means these fares have a lengthy 90 day advance purchase requirement (these are discounted roundtrip PE fares).
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...53896e7331.png

The '7' in the 6th position indicates these roundtrip fares have a 7 day minimum stay requirement.
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...79981642bf.png


For roundtrip fares, it's not that unusual to see TATL fares requiring 14 day minimum stay requirements for cheapest business class fares on routes, followed by 7 day min stay and/or Sat night stay requirements for slightly higher fares. Another factor unique to business class fares is there can be seasonally discounted fares around significant US holidays such as Easter, Memorial Day, 4th of July, Labor Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Years when business travel demand is lighter. They will also often have discount business class fares for late summer travel when, once again, business travel demand is lower due to people taking vacations.

Here are the current seasonal US holiday periods for AA US origin discount TATL business class fares which extend from Easter through New Years this year. The fare basis codes for these fares is IQN7T2S5. The '7' in 4th position of fare basis code in this case means these fares only have a 7 day advance purchase requirement.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...0e76764336.png
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...858233148a.png

What is a TATL fare? Google wasn't any help

Transatlantic
 

Transatlantic

It's short for Transatlantic. There's a Flyertalk Glossary page -- https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/glos...tterSelected=T
TPAC is short for Transpacific flights between US and Asia. Unlike US domestic fare filings, TATL and TPAC fare filings are asymmetric and depend on origin of trip. A one-way or roundtrip from the US to Europe will be priced using ex-US fare filings which are different than ex-EU fare filings which apply to one-ways or roundtrips which originate in the EU. So the cheaper US holiday season business class roundtrip fare filings only apply to roundtrips which begin in the US (which is not surprising since Europeans do not celebrate a number of these US holidays).