ruckover

Hi - as a CK, I am trying to gauge the probability of re-qualifying under the LP structure. Does anyone know how many loyalty points is a lot?

Thanks ✌️

davecraze

Well, no one knows what CK qualification will be based on going forward and how and to what extent LPs will factor in. I think it will still really be profitability based (so not just EQD but profitable EQD) and that LPs will be counted at around a penny per LP.
One of the points blogs reported that some folks that were awarded CK from super/hyper promotion offer where they obtained like 5+ million LPs (though it did not seem to be a full annual award - was only until like March 2023).

So basically, a million LPs is worth $10k and it will take multiples of that to qualify CK with just LPs (assuming that it's even possible to qualify with just LPs). It's all a big TBD and further clouds folks figuring out what it takes to qualify for CK (which AA will never want to be general knowledge anyway).

TheDudeAbides

25,000,000 is a lot.

Antarius

But serious as davecraze said, CK is about user profitability not pure spend. How that translates into LPs is to be seen.

ruckover

Thank you for those insights. I have nearly 800k LP and only book with AirPass ($50k at the beginning of the year and then rebuys as needed). Perhaps that will be sufficient.

wutlol

Why not just pay the bit extra for Airpass ($60k) to get it guaranteed? You�re likely to sort it anyway.

PhillyPhlyer40

Geez....my almost 750K seem like "not a lot". Was just going to start a thread "what to do post 750K" as it is the end of the Loyalty Choice awards....

AB Dada

Soon your LP count won’t matter. As we get to year one of LPs, it’ll be rolling LPs that matter.

I assume LPs earned in the 12 months prior to July 2023 will mean more.

PHL

As far as CK goes, wouldn�t LPs earned flying AA metal versus other spend be weighted more in the requalofication?

AB Dada

Doubtful.

All the bloggers who got CK using the donation loophole last year are obviously not big time AA flyers.

davecraze

Agree on doubtful. That is the problem with AA �valuing� LPs that originate from all sorts of differing activities (even flights on different carriers) that create many differing amounts of profit to AA. That is far too complicated to implement at scale and will always be changing as different LP earning activities come and go.
I suspect that an LP is an LP to AA as they likely calibrate that on the front end in determining how many LPs an activity gets.

FullFare

I'm with the Dude. I have spent tons of money on AA over the past 30+ yrs since they started Aadvantage. Always made whatever EXP qualification was, and way more. I bought a lifetime Aaipass and even bought lesser ones for my kids. When I purchased a year's worth for the kids, they put them on CK. Obviously didn't function for more than the year and contact was lost.

But for me, AA did zilch. I even wrote them once and suggested they make me CK, and they told me to pound sand. Lost any warmth or fuzzy for the carrier after that. So, wife and I have made lifetime 1K on United, perennial Diamond on Delta as well as million miles and even 100K on Alaska. We still stumble into EXP each year and have 7 million lifetime miles.

Not worth playing this childish guessing game with AA about their secretive CK qualification threshold. I probably would have gone out of my way to devote more flights to them if they had made me CK--or even tole me what the qualification requirement. was--- but what the heck. I remember being envious about how they (CK's) got called out to Pre-Board before myself and everyone else. Now that I've had multiple back surgeries, I go up to the gate agent and ask to pre-board on my flights, which are always as an EXP in F class. Self esteem is preserved, too.

Others can play the guessing game, but I'm long over it, and happily lying other carriers who get the job done the way I need it done. Turns out it was a good decision for me, and I thank AA for steering me to it.

G'day

only1percent

My guess is that AA deprecates credit card and hotel points heavily in the 2023 CK decisions. Tons of people are amassing high six figures and low seven figures of LPs though card, hotel and AA marketplace offers, but that drops through to profit probably at half a percent - a million of such Loyalty Points = $5,000 in margin contribution; about the contribution of a single DFW-LHR roundtrip. That guys is probably an owner/partner of a small business (so he can use his personal CC to pay business expenses) which means he doesn't direct much additional corporate travel spend.

To max overall margin (what CK is for), I guess CK will continue to use its traditional criteria: high five figures or six figures in J and F on AA metal, and people who control corporate travel budgets.

This is not to say that high point EPs aren't getting a sweet deal. I am one. My buying is about half Y and half J/F -- and the Y upgrades have gotten considerably easier.

The real losers are people who don't have the ability to run business expenses through their Barclays and Citi cards. Those guys can have $20k and $30k of travel spend and still be at the bottom of the upgrade list.

stant

i think you might be doing yourself a disservice with this analysis. remember those miles / LP were CRAZY cheap. I HATE that I missed that deal. I'd have bought tens of millions of miles had I caught it. I bet you those were handled different from other LP calculations for CK. a million LP from credit card spend is going to be WAY more profitable than a million points from basic economy fares

davecraze

Citi buys miles from AA from what is reported to be less than one cent per mile. I think one cent per mile is the absolute max for cc LPs. I also think it will go down from there in the future.

We already know from the blog reporting that 8 million miles/LP and 6 million miles/LP via the simply miles promotion were awarded CK, which 3.6 million miles/LP was not. This is anecdotal, I know, but would be entirely consistent with valuation around a penny per mile and a rough approximation of 50-60k of profitable spend (minimum). If it was much more than that, I would have expected the 3.6m person to have made it also.

Of my current LPs, 1.2 million of them are from cc spend. I am not expecting that to count for more than 12k equivalent in CK requalification.