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First Experience as EXP - AA is flooded with Elites

First Experience as EXP - AA is flooded with Elites

Old Nov 8, 2022, 1:48 pm
  #31  
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It will be interesting to see the average LP balance for EXP.
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 2:01 pm
  #32  
 
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Originally Posted by Acidity
lame duck status holders can still get upgraded above someone with more rolling LP than them (e.g. a 0 LP ExPlat will get upgraded before a 199k LP PlatPro). Outside of lifetime status (which only goes up to Platinum anyways), I suspect this will be rare enough not to worry about.
Are you thinking upgrade priority is based on (qualifying) year to date LP? No, it's rolling 12 month LP. So there is even less of a direct relation to one's current status. The max rolling LP a PlatPro could have is not 199k but 399k. And an ExPlat could have zero rolling LP without ever failing to requalify, say if they fly a lot in early 2022 and then not again until late 2023.
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 2:08 pm
  #33  
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Originally Posted by Acidity
While you're correct that elite levels don't really matter for upgrade priority[1], ...
There are also some nuances even for upgrades where elite status matters regardless of LPs. For example, you may be a 400k LP EXP on an award ticket, and ranked below a 200k LP EXP on a paid ticket. In that case, you would wish that EXP elite levels were higher...
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Last edited by nk15; Nov 8, 2022 at 2:14 pm
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 2:13 pm
  #34  
 
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If you think AA is flooded with elites, check out the Delta forum and ask the Diamond Medallions how they are doing with upgrades (spoiler: a lot worse than us on AA). I'm a Plat and with some strategic booking, I've been upgraded roughly 75% of the time this year. As a Gold at Delta, I'd be likely to snag Comfort+ even when flying off-peak. Yeah, Delta has the seat-back screens and SkyClub access with my AMEX plat, but if I am just going to sit in economy 95% of the time I'd rather just fly Jetblue and sit in MCE (which is, in my opinion, the best economy seat in America).
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 2:19 pm
  #35  
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Originally Posted by TRAVEL4SCUBA
It will be interesting to see the average LP balance for EXP.
Obviously, AA will never publish that. Someone smarter than the rest of us did the math that they make more $$ giving me Plat for flying 4000 EQMs (or even 0), but spending $12K across their partners and a little bit on them. I know there are others who got EXP for $2000 and no segments, and they have a garage full of bonsai trees to show for it..

If they make any notable adjustments - not in our favor - to the next year's requirements, then we'll know they had a "oops" moment.
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Last edited by PHL; Nov 9, 2022 at 9:34 am
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 2:19 pm
  #36  
 
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Regarding AA having too many elites, yes they do, but so do other airlines currently. It's a legacy of Covid-related grace periods and lower qualification thresholds that are working their way out of the system. When AA set those levels they guessed how quickly travel would ramp up and they clearly underestimated. That has shown up not just in the FF program but in other parts of the operation. There should (hopefully) be fewer EXPs after February.

I'm having one of my best years ever with upgrades (see my signature). EXP with ~140 LPs, but I usually book not long before the upgrade window opens and when possible I choose flights that appear to have good chances (lots of unassigned F and orange seats). Sometimes I pick a connection vs a nonstop but nothing that really inconveniences me. I understand that not everyone has this flexibility but the point is that if upgrades are your top priority there are things you can do to tip the scales in your favor.

I have no problem with AA letting non and infrequent flyers qualify for status. By definition they will rarely compete with me for upgrades and CS time.
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 2:36 pm
  #37  
 
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For sure the qualifications for this year were very low ($9K for EXP). I suspect that will change going into the next elite year. That being said the big unknown are cc holders getting status through cc spend. Add into upgrade offers and upgrades might still remain tough even for EXPs. I'm missing upgrades on E175s, off peak business flying, and non prime routes. It's the new reality.
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 2:36 pm
  #38  
 
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AA should also be less impacted by extensions than UA/DL. By using rolling 12 month LPs AA better prioritizes people actually engaging with the program.

Both UA/DL prioritize by fare class within elite tiers which I think put more weight on the elite tier (which is more dependent on COVID extensions).
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 2:44 pm
  #39  
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Originally Posted by TRAVEL4SCUBA
Well, I hit EXP on 10/29, a few days over 8 weeks since I started to get "status". I did this mostly with CC spend and AA hotels, only took one flight. As suspected, there are WAY to many EXP already, AA is going to have to raise the bar.

I booked a mid afternoon flight, LAS to DEN via PHX departed yesterday. As of Thursday there were 7 open First Class seats and the fare was really high to pay the difference. By Monday AM all seats taken and I was number 11 on the upgrade list! On the flight from PHX to DEN 6 seats open as of Sunday night, but Monday all gone and I was number 17 on the upgrade list, 17 as an EXP ! WOW.

I suspected this would be the case, AA simply made it too easy to get status, so as the saying goes, if everyone is elite, nobody is.
Im usually at the top or near the top of an upgrade or standby list as an EXP, but so many seats are sold in FC that upgrades are difficult. Seat 8C or 8D, with drinks, is fine.
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 3:03 pm
  #40  
 
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One thing I've done is look for alternate flights in which F is wide open. Often the refare is worth changing flights. And of course you get LPs for the higher fare. But there's a chance those open seats are suddenly gone so there is a risk. For Friday I changed my MIA/PHX flight for an additional $75 as there's eight F seats open on a 321neo. No upgrade yet but hoping the $75 gamble pays off.

Even a few times when I refared into F it was only $200-$300, like my flight tomorrow.
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 3:06 pm
  #41  
 
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Originally Posted by Stripe
Regarding AA having too many elites, yes they do, but so do other airlines currently. It's a legacy of Covid-related grace periods and lower qualification thresholds that are working their way out of the system. When AA set those levels they guessed how quickly travel would ramp up and they clearly underestimated. That has shown up not just in the FF program but in other parts of the operation. There should (hopefully) be fewer EXPs after February.
DL and UA both set their EXP tiers at $15k for 2023 qualification (and I think UA also had some bonuses to PQP as well?), so AA's setting EXP at >$18k for requalification and $27k for new qualification (for earning by flying at least) seems much smarter in retrospect.

Originally Posted by EXP100
For sure the qualifications for this year were very low ($9K for EXP). I suspect that will change going into the next elite year. That being said the big unknown are cc holders getting status through cc spend. Add into upgrade offers and upgrades might still remain tough even for EXPs. I'm missing upgrades on E175s, off peak business flying, and non prime routes. It's the new reality.
How do you get $9K for EXP? Even if you're requalifying it'd be 200000LP/11LP/1$ = $18182. That's the highest of the US3 for this year.
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 3:13 pm
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by TRAVEL4SCUBA
Well, I hit EXP on 10/29, a few days over 8 weeks since I started to get "status". I did this mostly with CC spend and AA hotels, only took one flight. As suspected, there are WAY to many EXP already, AA is going to have to raise the bar.

I booked a mid afternoon flight, LAS to DEN via PHX departed yesterday. As of Thursday there were 7 open First Class seats and the fare was really high to pay the difference. By Monday AM all seats taken and I was number 11 on the upgrade list! On the flight from PHX to DEN 6 seats open as of Sunday night, but Monday all gone and I was number 17 on the upgrade list, 17 as an EXP !
Maybe - and just bear with me here - you should fly more before making grand proclamations about how many elites there are, and the value of EXP.

Leaving aside the fact that there is much more to EXP than just domestic upgrades - I fly out of DEN, am a low LP EXP (currently just under 200K LPs)...and I'm currently running just under 75% clearance success on domestic upgrades. There are a number of reasons any one flight could have a large number of people on the upgrade list or in first class....
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 3:15 pm
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by Acidity
DL and UA both set their EXP tiers at $15k for 2023 qualification (and I think UA also had some bonuses to PQP as well?), so AA's setting EXP at >$18k for requalification and $27k for new qualification (for earning by flying at least) seems much smarter in retrospect.



How do you get $9K for EXP? Even if you're requalifying it'd be 200000LP/11LP/1$ = $18182. That's the highest of the US3 for this year.
To qualify in 2021 for 2022 that's what it was. This year it was increased for March 2023. So anyone that achieved $9K last year still has EXP status. Granted if they haven't increased their flying or cc spend they're down at the bottom of EXPs for upgrades.
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 3:24 pm
  #44  
 
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I don’t think “too many EXP” is AA’s current problem. Lack of capacity to meet continued premium travel demand seems to be more of the tail wagging the dog here vs. easy access to EXP via LP’s.
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Old Nov 8, 2022, 3:26 pm
  #45  
 
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Originally Posted by EXP100
To qualify in 2021 for 2022 that's what it was. This year it was increased for March 2023. So anyone that achieved $9K last year still has EXP status. Granted if they haven't increased their flying or cc spend they're down at the bottom of EXPs for upgrades.
Ah gotcha, didn't realize you were talking about earning status in 2021. To be fair, $9k worth of flying last year was still quite a bit!

It will be very interesting to see how the elite landscape changes as the status extensions expire. And also to see how AA changes the program going into next year. With the very high demand for air travel and quite high fares, I have to imagine the LP thresholds will increase (at least for Plat Pro / ExPlat; Gold is already more expensive than the corresponding levels on UA and DL). At this point, I'm assuming 250k LP for ExPlat next year; I don't see OP's 300k number being a realistic choice for AA even if it's the correct one; a 50% increase year over year would lead to a revolt, and that'd correspond to $27k in flight spend just to renew, well more than the $21.5k and $20k UA and DL are requiring respectively. Even at 250k LP, AA would be the highest of the big 3 in 2023 for someone who only earns by flying (and it's way worse for those who have to earn from scratch).
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