FlyFreakquently

Not a fan of that idea. It would unfairly reward those who fly connecting itineraries such as LBB-DFW-AUS(472mi) and harm those who fly transcon, non-stop routes such as JFK-LAX(2,475mi)/MIA-LAX(2,342mi), etc.

Acidity

Or those who fly J non-stop TATL/TPAC itineraries, who make AA tons of profit.

I'd be willing to bet that for a given number of LP, the lower the number of segments you have the more profitable you are for AA, on average.

LovePrunes

​​​​​​People flying on American aircraft are *costing* them profit not earning them profit. The only profit activities AA has, is it's aadvantage frequent flyer program. They don't want to incentivize you to get on their planes or they would have done so when they redesigned their loyalty program last year.

SEC Filing Shows American Airlines Loses Money Flying, All Profit Comes From Frequent Flyer Miles... Link below

https://viewfromthewing.com/sec-fili...-earns-profit/

It's a big financial services companythat happens to have some aircraft they fly around with a captive audience to influence how they spend their money on things other than flying

Without the passengers flying though, their captive audience, the whole thing falls apart. The link is pre-COVID, 2018/2019 at the height of their profitability... which obviously COVID didn't make them MORE profitable.

Acidity

People flying AA costs them money on average. That does not mean that individual passengers were not profitable - if that were true there would be no reason for AA to offer status to frequent flyers at all. They would happily tell all the flying ExPlats to get lost, and go fly United or Delta for all AA cares. AA doesn't, because AA would rather have that ExPlat fly AA than have them fly someone else.

It's also important to remember that the distinction between AA the airline and AA the loyalty program are not clear cut, and could be entirely arbitrary. We have no idea how much the loyalty program is paying the airline for an award ticket, but it's entirely possible (probable even) that it's less than the cash price of that same ticket. If so, then these numbers are meaningless for this purpose.

Regardless, the point that FlyFreakquently and I was making was that passengers with fewer segments are more profitable than equivalent passengers with more segments, which your data would corroborate.

Herb687

I'm furious that Nordstrom doesn't give me a free upgrade to a Brioni suit after I've bought 5 store brand suits.

dc10forlife

OP's theory that AA is flooded with elites cited two flights as examples in support.

As an EXP, the majority of the time , I get upgraded and am 1 or 2 on the list. This is particularly true for non-mainline flights (80% success rate). Upgrades on longer, mainline flights have always been tougher to get (50% success rate). If I am not upgraded, I tend to be further down on the list.

But on those longer, mainline flights, is AA filling the first class cabin with paying customers (including those who chose to buy up to first)? Or are the seats being taken up by elites? None of us have the data to know for sure. But one thing that has changed is COVID, and I suspect that many (including leisure travelers) are opting to purchase first class seats to avoid the close quarters of economy.

I'm on a CMH-PHX flight next month and the entire First Class cabin is already full. Its the same with my connecting flight to OGG. When looking at other mainline flights I am taking in the future, I tend to see more first class seats that have already been taken. So in my experience, it seems that the seats are being sold rather than being handed out to elites as upgrades.

remedy

As a fellow CMH flyer with a home in PHX, upgrades on flights to and from for me/us are very rare. We have started to request miles/$ upgrades and those are even tough. We have observed that PHX is a major transfer hub for CMH flyers going west and in the spring a huge leisure market (car auctions, Waste Management, spring training and (this year) the Super Bowl. Growing content with exit row aisle seating.

PresRDC

They already do this with the stupid, illogical, and punitive, 30 segment rule for Loyalty Choice Rewards.

LINDEGR

I care about posts that are misleading. I do not care about the fact that 1 -2 % of people (is that better???) are spending $200K or more per year on a cc.

AAdamE

There is a lack of people pointing fingers at the AS reciprocal upgrades - especially on non AA hub routes. Also the buy up offers are lower than ever, and with the average human in the US being larger than ever, many will shell out a few bucks for a buy up in the app.

nineworldseries

As a counterpoint, I'm two weeks into EXP flying and have been upgraded on 7/8 segments, including the lie flat J seat I'm in ex-JFK to SFO. 5 of the 7 upgrades were either into or out of DFW as well. Still waitlisted on the last segment Sunday so could be batting 1.000

PowerLu

Same. I pretty much never get a comp upgrade out of Miami as EXP at 250k to other big AA destinations (LGA, ORD, DCA, PHX, etc.). I'm talking Tuesday/Wednesday midday or even late night flights. I am regularly 10+ on the list on paid, and I was 16 on the list when using miles to ORD last month (no joke) - I should've taken a screenshot. I asked the agent and was told there were 4 CKs and 12 EXPs in front of me--no one was upgraded.

The thing about Miami it seems that everyone is buying, probably the cheap upfares they are pushing so hard. At T-100 the J space is almost always at zero already so it doesn't even matter what the waitlist is unless you get last minute no-shows. I guess everyone in Miami has money to burn - all that extra crypto cash or something? Lol

EXP100

Same and at only 190KLP. Miami is becoming a tough airport for upgrades. I sometimes buy F and sometimes take the upgrade offer, the latter although doesn't yield LPs.

AM17

Same. I've flown DCA-MIA-DCA a lot over the last month and I've cleared the 5:30 am DCA-MIA at the 100 hour mark and not cleared at all on the way home. There was a POUG for $98 on my last flight ex-MIA and I took it - didn't want to risk it.

Gaucho100K

Agree that the Status dilution has gotten harsh (and sadly I think the trend will continue).... but in the end, I find EXP status makes the hardship of domestic airtravel (somewhat) bearable. MIA is very tough with upgrades, but in my case Im still chasing EXP status because of the generous baggage allowance (I always travel very heavy) and also the benefits I can extend to family when we all go on trips does (still) make quite a difference.