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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

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Old Mar 6, 2022, 1:17 pm
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Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing (Be aware of possible upgrade priority changes as of Loyalty Points becoming the qualifier for rewards)

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)

Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold


Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)


Then, by
  1. EQD earned, possibly changing to Loyalty Points earned, in the past 12 months (rolling) as far as we know today
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request


Link to 2020-2021 archived thread.

For previous changes, see Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017





Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

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Old Nov 27, 2022, 7:44 am
  #781  
HGH
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 126
True story - upgraded on my first eligible flight as a Gold. DFW-CLL midweek, first flight. No idea what the odds were, but may have blown all my luck on that one short leg. I was number 15 on the return flight.
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Old Nov 28, 2022, 5:51 am
  #782  
 
Join Date: Oct 2021
Location: PHL/LAX/MAD (for now)
Programs: American Airlines Executive Platinum, AmEx Membership Rewards
Posts: 872
11/28 PHL-PHX AA499: Had not cleared when I purchased in-app offer ($242) at T-18. Went out with 40 on the list.
11/28 PHL-PHX AA474: Same day changed to the 8:38 on the 787 and the list is 45 deep.
11/28: PHX-BUR AA1271: Had not cleared when I SDFC’d to the 3:34 flight. 20 on the list.
11/28 PHX-BUR AA4961: Cleared immediately after switching to this flight. No suprises here on the -700
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Old Nov 28, 2022, 4:09 pm
  #783  
 
Join Date: May 2022
Location: Arlington, Virginia
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum, Aeroplan 25k, Hyatt Explorist, Marriott Gold
Posts: 194
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
Web specials don't book into the usual award inventory of T/U so somehow the system got confused and didn't realize you were on an award ticket.
Was just browsing "Your activity" in the app and I see that this flight booked into Y fare class! Wild. I should book Web Specials more often (This is my first year having AA status so apologies if this is a known feature of Web Specials and I sound like a newbie)
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Old Nov 28, 2022, 4:45 pm
  #784  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, AA Million Miles, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,586
OMA-CLT, 738, Monday mid-afternoon - cleared after boarding (agent did mention as I boarded that "we might have an upgrade for you"), moved up to 1F from 9D.

Just around 200K LPs.
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Old Nov 28, 2022, 8:10 pm
  #785  
 
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 68
JFK to LAX, basic economy fare, cleared from main to J, exec plat.

Curious though, the first cabin (3 cabin transcon) was mostly empty, with business and main cabin full. Does AA not complimentary auto-upgrade J to F or Y to F?
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Old Nov 28, 2022, 8:16 pm
  #786  
 
Join Date: Jun 2021
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, BAEC Gold, IHG Platinum
Posts: 319
Originally Posted by djdw905
JFK to LAX, basic economy fare, cleared from main to J, exec plat.

Curious though, the first cabin (3 cabin transcon) was mostly empty, with business and main cabin full. Does AA not complimentary auto-upgrade J to F or Y to F?
I've been double upgraded as an EXP, from Y to J on a complimentary upgrade and then a further operational upgrade into Flagship First (original Y ticket was $109 one way lol) because J was oversold by 4 seats. This was SFO-JFK. So yes it does happen, but it'll never happen if J is not oversold. And you cannot use a complimentary upgrade to go from J to F or Y to F. Only a Systemwide or mileage upgrade from paid J to F.
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Old Nov 28, 2022, 8:45 pm
  #787  
 
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 68
Originally Posted by ghsbass0406
I've been double upgraded as an EXP, from Y to J on a complimentary upgrade and then a further operational upgrade into Flagship First (original Y ticket was $109 one way lol) because J was oversold by 4 seats. This was SFO-JFK. So yes it does happen, but it'll never happen if J is not oversold. And you cannot use a complimentary upgrade to go from J to F or Y to F. Only a Systemwide or mileage upgrade from paid J to F.
got it, thanks!
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Old Nov 29, 2022, 5:57 am
  #788  
 
Join Date: Feb 2022
Programs: AAdvantage
Posts: 949
EXP at 185K LP Cleared DFW/SNA about 12 hours out. Presumably this is a difficult route for a low spend EXP to clear (on a Tuesday).

T-100 cleared SNA/JFK on the 321T (another shocker, Friday night on the only flight of the day)
T-105 JFK/MIA (738 Max)
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Old Nov 29, 2022, 11:39 am
  #789  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Programs: Choice Hotels
Posts: 762
PlatPro with about 100k LP
11/1 OKC-PHX CR7.
#1 on the list out of 9 ..nobody cleared. Upgrades offered on the app for $126 right up until t-24. First time I've ever missed an upgrade on this flight as a Plat or PPro.

11/1 PHX-SFO E175 cleared at the window! Wasn't expecting that.



11/8 SFO-PHX 737. #1 out of 12 on the list. Nobody cleared. Upgrades offered on the app for $146 right up until t-24

11/8. PHX-SLC A321 #2 on the list out 16 and 1 cleared. So I was the first loser on both flights on this day. Upgrades offered on the app for $97 right up until t-24


11/15. SLC-DFW A321 cleared at the window!

11/15 DFW-JAN CR9. #1 out of 8, and I was the only one who cleared at the gate. Upgrades offered for $76 right up until t-24


​​​​​​
11/22 JAN-DFW E175 #1 out of 11, and I was the only one that cleared at the gate. Upgrades being offered for $49! Right up until t-24
11/22 DFW-OKC A319. #10 out of 22; nobody cleared.



11/29 OKC-LAX E175. Cleared at the window.

11/29 LAX-LAS A321. Cleared at the window. Boarding this flight now.


Overall, a good upgrade percentage with all flights being on Tuesdays. A couple of flights where I was surprised to get an upgraded.....and a couple where I was uprised to be in MCE....so it all evened out. Some very cheap upgrade offers on the app on some of these flights well into the upgrade window.
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Old Nov 30, 2022, 6:00 am
  #790  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: CMH, West Coast
Programs: AA Executive Platinum, oneworld emerald
Posts: 2,741
I'm surprised to hear that folks are still getting in-app upgrade offers past their status window for upgrades opening. 100% of the time, my offers in the app disappear after T-100 hours.
thunderdeacon likes this.
nineworldseries is offline  
Old Dec 4, 2022, 11:54 am
  #791  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Germany
Programs: BA GGL, CCR - TK G
Posts: 809
New to this. Please bare with me.. Just got platinum pro and have an upcoming flight on Tues from MCO to ord. I'm in the 4pm flight. C had been sold out for long. And all seats as taken. I'm in the upgrade list with my y ticket. I do have exit row.
No more c for sale on the earlier 12.35 flight but seats not all taken.
I am thinking of doing a same day change to this earlier flight just to get to ord early. Risking I loose my exit row.
​​​​​Question. As I will be signing up within 24h for that flight will any possible upgrade has already been given to anyone else? Even aa gold is now before me? Or would they value my higher status and I still have a chance to get upgraded over golds and plats?
Vasco Pridat is offline  
Old Dec 5, 2022, 4:41 am
  #792  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,474
Originally Posted by Vasco Pridat
New to this. Please bare with me.. Just got platinum pro and have an upcoming flight on Tues from MCO to ord. I'm in the 4pm flight. C had been sold out for long. And all seats as taken. I'm in the upgrade list with my y ticket. I do have exit row.
No more c for sale on the earlier 12.35 flight but seats not all taken.
I am thinking of doing a same day change to this earlier flight just to get to ord early. Risking I loose my exit row.
​​​​​Question. As I will be signing up within 24h for that flight will any possible upgrade has already been given to anyone else? Even aa gold is now before me? Or would they value my higher status and I still have a chance to get upgraded over golds and plats?
Once you are confirmed on the new flight then you will be added to the upgrade list based on your status and it will be resorted at that time. So as soon as you are added to the list as a PLT Pro you will be above any PLT's or Gold's who are also on the list.
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Old Dec 5, 2022, 4:57 am
  #793  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Germany
Programs: BA GGL, CCR - TK G
Posts: 809
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
Once you are confirmed on the new flight then you will be added to the upgrade list based on your status and it will be resorted at that time. So as soon as you are added to the list as a PLT Pro you will be above any PLT's or Gold's who are also on the list.
Thank you. Makes sense. How likely are the chances in my scenario that if there were 1 or two upgrades that they already cleared ahead to gold or platinums? Or will updates not clear in a tight situation until take off?
Vasco Pridat is offline  
Old Dec 5, 2022, 5:10 am
  #794  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,474
Originally Posted by Vasco Pridat
Thank you. Makes sense. How likely are the chances in my scenario that if there were 1 or two upgrades that they already cleared ahead to gold or platinums? Or will updates not clear in a tight situation until take off?
AA will typically never clear all upgrades until right before the flight. So if there are only 2 seats left for sale in business, for example, those will not be given out to a Gold (or anyone) right at T-24. They will keep those seats available for sale for any last minute travelers, then if they're still available they will clear any upgrades at the gate right before the flight.
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Old Dec 5, 2022, 7:28 am
  #795  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 30,009
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
AA will typically never clear all upgrades until right before the flight. So if there are only 2 seats left for sale in business, for example, those will not be given out to a Gold (or anyone) right at T-24. They will keep those seats available for sale for any last minute travelers, then if they're still available they will clear any upgrades at the gate right before the flight.
Yep that buy up offer in the app is available until the gate agent is closing the door.
enviroian is offline  


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