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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

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Old Sep 20, 22, 9:19 am   -   Wikipost
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Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing (Be aware of possible upgrade priority changes as of Loyalty Points becoming the qualifier for rewards)

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)

Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold


Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)


Then, by
  1. EQD earned, possibly changing to Loyalty Points earned, in the past 12 months (rolling) as far as we know today
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request


Link to 2020-2021 archived thread.

For previous changes, see Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017





Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
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Old Sep 25, 22, 10:18 pm
  #571  
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Join Date: Nov 2001
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Originally Posted by enichols22124 View Post
#1 3 times in a row RIC to DFW, 0 seats available. No upgrade. Exec Plat with 200,000+ Loyalty Points this far this year.

This year has been the worst for upgrades compared to previous. SFO, DFW, RIC, CDG , I'm sitting around 10% of time getting upgrades. Even when attempting to use SWU for the long legs.
DFW-RIC is one of my top WFBF routes over the past 5 years.

Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
I don't think I've ever seen 56 people on a wait list let alone a non hub to hub flight.
DFW>PHL pre-merger on a Monday AM. DFW>ATL on a Monday AM or ATL>DFW on a Thursday PM (flip those directions and you'll see the same thing on DL)
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Old Sep 25, 22, 10:19 pm
  #572  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Boston, MA
Programs: AA EXP, DL Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Bonvoy Ambassador (RIP SPG), Aeroplan 75K
Posts: 635
Originally Posted by nineworldseries View Post
Flying JFK-SFO 12/2 on 2652 (5:55pm friday depart) on an A321t. Paid ticket in N, will be EXP by flight date-- worth it at all to try to increase upgrade chances with miles plus cash, or is that just superfluous for an EXP?
No confirmable C space per EF, however the 15k+$75 is an easy way to lock it in early (if inventory opens up) given youre 2+ months out.

Also check to see what the app is offering for buy-ups. For my upcoming BOS-LAX trip, J and F have either been the same price or F $50 more.
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Old Sep 26, 22, 1:15 am
  #573  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Silver/MM, Hilton Diamond, Hertz 5* Gold
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Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
#2 for 1 seat out of 38 on today's late AM flight to DTW. I don't see myself getting pulled up front today.
Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
Today for dtw-Dfw Im #4 out of 50 for 0 seats.
DFW-DTW and return used to be a pretty easy upgrade. My one miss this year was on a DTW-DFW.
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Old Sep 26, 22, 2:54 am
  #574  
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: DEN
Programs: Hilton Diamond Hyatt Globalist Marriott Gold AA EXP
Posts: 882
I'm flying DEN-DFW on Tuesday as a new EXP. I'm looking to do a SDC to increase my chances of upgrade as well as to meet up with some co-workers for dinner. One of the earlier flights shows C1 but J3 on expert flyer. Which fare is relevant for me to be upgraded? Or will more C's be added if the J's aren't sold for cash?
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Old Sep 26, 22, 6:53 am
  #575  
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
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Originally Posted by bbriscoe34 View Post
I'm flying DEN-DFW on Tuesday as a new EXP. I'm looking to do a SDC to increase my chances of upgrade as well as to meet up with some co-workers for dinner. One of the earlier flights shows C1 but J3 on expert flyer. Which fare is relevant for me to be upgraded? Or will more C's be added if the J's aren't sold for cash?
J is full fare business which is basically the total # of seats in business left for sale.

C is upgrade space but only if you're upgrading with miles/copay or SWU. C has no bearing on complementary upgrade space (that is R, the comp upgrade R space is not visible at EF).

Assuming you're trying to increase your odds of a comp upgrade, then this close in I would SDFC to whatever flight has the most J open, all else being equal.
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Old Sep 26, 22, 8:55 am
  #576  
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Join Date: Dec 2000
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Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
Im now 4 out of 56. I don't think I've ever seen 56 people on a wait list let alone a non hub to hub flight.
I would think that's more the result of the move to automatically add everyone down to Gold to the upgrade list.
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Old Sep 26, 22, 9:08 am
  #577  
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Originally Posted by PHL View Post
I would think that's more the result of the move to automatically add everyone down to Gold to the upgrade list.
Well then all things being equal I don't or haven't seen lists like that anywhere else.

Anyway the boarding area at DTW was chaos. Group 1 must have been 50 people and I heard people talking to each other with sayings like "what is going on here? I'm #14! I used to always get an upgrade on this flight" and "No I didn't get an upgrade and I'm 6 on the upgrade list. First time for that, wow". Clearly elite members are seeing the app buy up in action.

Last edited by enviroian; Sep 26, 22 at 9:16 am
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Old Sep 26, 22, 9:42 am
  #578  
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
Posts: 9,180
He is getting no respect, and now FL is paying the price...
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Old Sep 26, 22, 11:07 am
  #579  
PHL
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
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Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
Well then all things being equal I don't or haven't seen lists like that anywhere else.

Anyway the boarding area at DTW was chaos. Group 1 must have been 50 people and I heard people talking to each other with sayings like "what is going on here? I'm #14! I used to always get an upgrade on this flight" and "No I didn't get an upgrade and I'm 6 on the upgrade list. First time for that, wow". Clearly elite members are seeing the app buy up in action.
The new norm. I'm surprised it took AA so long. UA started doing this, much to their VFFs chagrin, like 10 years ago. <sigh>
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Old Sep 26, 22, 2:45 pm
  #580  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Washington DC
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 63
I have a flight to Italy in a couple of weeks that is J4 C4. I called to apply a miles and copay upgrade but they could only waitlist me. Ive been able to confirm upgrades before over the phone where C space was available.

When I look on AA.com, I do not see the option to apply a SWU. Anyone else come across this issue recently? Thanks in advance for any thoughts.
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Old Sep 26, 22, 2:49 pm
  #581  
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
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Originally Posted by Tbooth3 View Post
I have a flight to Italy in a couple of weeks that is J4 C4. I called to apply a miles and copay upgrade but they could only waitlist me. I’ve been able to confirm upgrades before over the phone where C space was available.

When I look on AA.com, I do not see the option to apply a SWU. Anyone else come across this issue recently? Thanks in advance for any thoughts.
Assuming there is true C availability (and no phantom one), it may depend on your status and the agent who answered the phone. I would call again, especially if you are EXP.
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Old Sep 26, 22, 2:55 pm
  #582  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Washington DC
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Originally Posted by nk15 View Post
Assuming there is true C availability (and no phantom one), it may depend on your status and the agent who answered the phone. I would call again, especially if you are EXP.
Thanks and I was wondering if I should just call again. Its a direct segment on AA so I assumed there was no phantom C space sort of issue. The flight is actually for my mother in law who has no status but since the C space was open I didnt think it would matter like it might if shes waitlisted.
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Old Sep 26, 22, 3:01 pm
  #583  
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
Posts: 9,180
You can try again, my sense is that the EXP line would have a better chance doing it for an EXP traveler.
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Old Sep 26, 22, 3:19 pm
  #584  
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: DEN
Programs: Hilton Diamond Hyatt Globalist Marriott Gold AA EXP
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Boarding is in 17 hours. Why can't I see the waitlist in the app? It only shows same-day Flight Change, Cancel, and Modify...
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Old Sep 26, 22, 4:59 pm
  #585  
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: LA
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Originally Posted by bbriscoe34 View Post
Boarding is in 17 hours. Why can't I see the waitlist in the app? It only shows same-day Flight Change, Cancel, and Modify...
I believe now it is 8 hours before departure (used to be 4 hours) before you will be able to see the waitlist.
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