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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2022 master thread)

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Old Sep 20, 22, 9:19 am   -   Wikipost
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Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing (Be aware of possible upgrade priority changes as of Loyalty Points becoming the qualifier for rewards)

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)

Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold


Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)


Then, by
  1. EQD earned, possibly changing to Loyalty Points earned, in the past 12 months (rolling) as far as we know today
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request


Link to 2020-2021 archived thread.

For previous changes, see Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017





Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
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Old Sep 22, 22, 6:20 am
  #556  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,121
Cleared Y-J complimentary upgrade JFK-LAX as an EXP at about 84 hours prior to departure for a 5pm flight on a Sunday.
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Old Sep 22, 22, 8:17 am
  #557  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: East Coast
Programs: AA CONCIERGE KEY, HILTON DIAMOND
Posts: 11,224
Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
They cleared me right before the door closed. I was in 8F and dozing off then my phone pinged with a 2E BP. I'm guessing three people didn't show up since this flight was zeroed out before. Then there's the awkward "excuse me" while I ask 8DE to please excuse me as I get up and walk up to F.
Most likely a no-show or misconnect (AA doesn't have great communications among its airport teams... sometimes a plane lands and there is a delay due to shortage of gate or a new gate agent struggles attaching the jetway so a connecting pax who in theory had sufficient time ends up leaving the aircraft with almost no time to make it to next gate)
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Old Sep 22, 22, 2:20 pm
  #558  
 
Join Date: May 2022
Location: Arlington, Virginia
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum, Aeroplan 25k, ANA Platinum, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 56
Originally Posted by EJRofChicago View Post
What on earth was happening that the upgrade list from DCA to ORD on a Wednesday afternoon was 40 people long and as PLAT I was way down at 16...never been that low on what seems to me such an off time...albeit I've never cleared off the list but still, I've at least died at #1 before as a Platinum on that route on a Wednesday...

(This was AA806, today 9/21. Absolutely packed.)
On the other hand, my return trip along the same route, AA636 ORD>DCA departing 3:14pm on a Saturday...just had the upgrade notification at 47 hours before departure. My first-ever complimentary upgrade on any airline. What should I order to drink to celebrate?
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Old Sep 22, 22, 2:58 pm
  #559  
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Palm Beach/ New England
Programs: AA EXP 3MM, DL GM, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 4,212
Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
Flying to St Louis tomorrow in a sold out F cabin. For the last several days AA has had app buy ups for $97 to F and it's obviously worked as it's now full. I'm flying to Detroit Friday and the same so that cabin will be zeroed out by Thursday I assume. Just SMH AA would take $97 from a kettle rather than keep an EXP happy.
I'm EXP with 250k LPs and have only missed one "R" upgrade this year -- are you looking at C class availability on these segments before booking? DFW-STL and esp. DFW-Detroit would seem like a strange flight for much paid F. Nevertheless, there is enough "signal" here to indicate that lots of EXPs aren't getting even 50% upgrades, which for me would be a deal-breaker.

Maybe AA is trying to replicate the revenue it lost by getting rid of the paid e500s by selling cheap upgrades for sale. If so, they are devaluing the program. I had no problem doing the copay dance for my companions on midcons, which were often $120 each way. But if upgrading disappears for elites in the program, then you've lost a big product differentiator.
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Old Sep 22, 22, 8:50 pm
  #560  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Boston, MA
Programs: AA EXP, DL Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Bonvoy Ambassador (RIP SPG), Aeroplan 75K
Posts: 579
Originally Posted by EJRofChicago View Post
On the other hand, my return trip along the same route, AA636 ORD>DCA departing 3:14pm on a Saturday...just had the upgrade notification at 47 hours before departure. My first-ever complimentary upgrade on any airline. What should I order to drink to celebrate?
A plastic cup of lukewarm Prosecco
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Old Sep 22, 22, 9:07 pm
  #561  
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: East Coast
Programs: AA CONCIERGE KEY, HILTON DIAMOND
Posts: 11,224
Originally Posted by ryanbriar View Post
A plastic cup of lukewarm Prosecco
Come on now, AA has brought back proper glassware in F even on short flights
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Old Sep 23, 22, 7:59 am
  #562  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, TX
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 26,518
#2 for 1 seat out of 38 on today's late AM flight to DTW. I don't see myself getting pulled up front today.
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Old Sep 23, 22, 9:44 am
  #563  
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 21
#1 3 times in a row RIC to DFW, 0 seats available. No upgrade. Exec Plat with 200,000+ Loyalty Points this far this year.

This year has been the worst for upgrades compared to previous. SFO, DFW, RIC, CDG , I'm sitting around 10% of time getting upgrades. Even when attempting to use SWU for the long legs.
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Old Sep 23, 22, 11:03 am
  #564  
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, TX
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 26,518
Originally Posted by enichols22124 View Post
#1 3 times in a row RIC to DFW, 0 seats available. No upgrade. Exec Plat with 200,000+ Loyalty Points this far this year.

This year has been the worst for upgrades compared to previous. SFO, DFW, RIC, CDG , I'm sitting around 10% of time getting upgrades. Even when attempting to use SWU for the long legs.
Thank you for having the dubious honor of trumping my horrible upgrade rate.

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Old Sep 23, 22, 11:22 am
  #565  
 
Join Date: Feb 2022
Programs: AAdvantage
Posts: 438
From last May I've been buying F out right unless it's an E175/CRJ or a 321ceo on a shorter flight. The upgrade offers don't earn LPs and to me that's self defeating to spend money with an airline and not get credit for it.

During that time domestic F fares for at most mid cons were in the $750 to $1K range. Now they're up to $1.5K or more. IMHO too much money for a MIA/DFW type of flight. So it's back to either the upgrade lottery or giving AA more of my money and not getting LPs for it.
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Old Sep 25, 22, 4:07 am
  #566  
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, TX
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 26,518
Today for dtw-Dfw Im #4 out of 50 for 0 seats.
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Old Sep 25, 22, 7:25 am
  #567  
PHL
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: PHL, NYC
Programs: AA PLT, DL SLV, UA SLV, MR LTT, HH DIA
Posts: 9,276
The last few posts above this one make it fairly evident that the buy-up offers are working out well for airline. Welcome to the new and improved AA
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Old Sep 25, 22, 12:16 pm
  #568  
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Dallas, TX
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 26,518
Originally Posted by PHL View Post
The last few posts above this one make it fairly evident that the buy-up offers are working out well for airline. Welcome to the new and improved AA
Im now 4 out of 56. I don't think I've ever seen 56 people on a wait list let alone a non hub to hub flight.
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Old Sep 25, 22, 1:30 pm
  #569  
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
Posts: 8,590
The dream of direct flights and complimentary upgrades is gone, under this environment, at least for DFW; you can have one or the other.

I decided to stay with AA as a non hub based flier, and I am getting 100% upgrades, but the cost is that I have to connect. Which is fine, because I need the segments anyway
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Old Sep 25, 22, 9:08 pm
  #570  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: CMH, SEA
Programs: AA Platinum Pro; AS MVP Gold, oneworld emerald
Posts: 2,531
Flying JFK-SFO 12/2 on 2652 (5:55pm friday depart) on an A321t. Paid ticket in N, will be EXP by flight date-- worth it at all to try to increase upgrade chances with miles plus cash, or is that just superfluous for an EXP?
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