Very positive unexpected upgrade activities
I fly 8-12 flights per week, many on AA .
Over the past two weeks I have been getting very unexpected upgrades within 24 hours of departure. What is surprising is I am getting upgrades on flights at J2 or less, under 24 hours out. Yesterday MIA DFW 772 flight J2, I was upgraded 18 hours out This morning DFW HOU, flight has been at J1 for three days, just received upgrade notification e-mail. I checked 30 minutes ago, J1. I suspect flight went J2, but yet AA normally would not upgrade with just a few hours before departure (gate upgrade). Vey unexpected, have no idea what is going on, but sure is nice...... |
Originally Posted by GunsOfNavarone
(Post 33164576)
I fly 8-12 flights per week, many on AA .
Over the past two weeks I have been getting very unexpected upgrades within 24 hours of departure. What is surprising is I am getting upgrades on flights at J2 or less, under 24 hours out. Yesterday MIA DFW 772 flight J2, I was upgraded 18 hours out This morning DFW HOU, flight has been at J1 for three days, just received upgrade notification e-mail. I checked 30 minutes ago, J1. I suspect flight went J2, but yet AA normally would not upgrade with just a few hours before departure (gate upgrade). Vey unexpected, have no idea what is going on, but sure is nice...... |
Some of those under T-24 upgrades are usually the result of cancellation/flight changes and seats become open. What I really see is fewer no show upgrades at the gate or onboard. Guess paxs buying upfares are determine to get their F experience, such as it has become.
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I agree that upgrades at J2 are not as rare as one might think. Heck, I've even been upgraded at J1 once or twice, back when I was EXP in 2017-2019.
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Originally Posted by GunsOfNavarone
(Post 33164576)
I fly 8-12 flights per week, many on AA
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/amer...gain-21-a.html |
I was 4 out of 28 for a zeroed out DFW-ORD flight Wednesday
I was 1 out of 26 for a zeroed out ORD-DFW flight Thursday. |
AA should not be clearing many upgrades prior to D-30 minutes at the gate. AA needs to hold back as much inventory as possible for last minute paid F bookings and/or for IRROPS reaccommodation of paid F passengers.
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Originally Posted by Herb687
(Post 33165804)
AA should not be clearing many upgrades prior to D-30 minutes at the gate. AA needs to hold back as much inventory as possible for last minute paid F bookings and/or for IRROPS reaccommodation of paid F passengers.
Could they change the thresholds? Sure. But that would just make upgrades more difficult across the board for the exceptional cases, like what you mention. |
Originally Posted by btonkid12345
(Post 33165849)
This is not human intervention. This is a machine algorithm that uses past data and once certain thresholds are met - processes the upgrade.
Could they change the thresholds? I am arguing that in many domestic markets AA has been too liberal for a couple of years now in its allocation of upgrade inventory prior to day of departure. I've been locked out of buying last minute first class fares on several occasions. That's a problem and it's revenue sub-optimal for AA. |
Originally Posted by Herb687
(Post 33165867)
I don't need a lesson in how revenue management works.
... I've been locked out of buying last minute first class fares on several occasions. That's a problem and it's revenue sub-optimal for AA. I say this as an AA elite who occasionally buys an F fare on UA when AA’s schedule or fare does not meet my needs. |
Originally Posted by btonkid12345
(Post 33165849)
This is not human intervention. This is a machine algorithm that uses past data and once certain thresholds are met - processes the upgrade.
Could they change the thresholds? Sure. But that would just make upgrades more difficult across the board for the exceptional cases, like what you mention. |
Originally Posted by Herb687
(Post 33165804)
AA should not be clearing many upgrades prior to D-30 minutes at the gate. AA needs to hold back as much inventory as possible for last minute paid F bookings and/or for IRROPS reaccommodation of paid F passengers.
Originally Posted by btonkid12345
(Post 33165849)
This is not human intervention. This is a machine algorithm that uses past data and once certain thresholds are met - processes the upgrade.
Could they change the thresholds? Sure. But that would just make upgrades more difficult across the board for the exceptional cases, like what you mention. |
Originally Posted by _kurt
(Post 33165968)
I know little to nothing of revenue management so I’m asking... isn’t it always a balancing act between the loyalty program driving long-term engagement to the brand vs immediate revenue from cash customers?
In practice, yield management seeks to optimize the airline's revenue across the network one departure day at a time. I understand your argument that the current balance is not optimal for *you* but how can you assert with such certainty that it’s not optimal for the airline? There is a core tenet of airline yield management that a cabin should NEVER be closed for sale. If a cabin is closed for sale, then theoretically you turned away a passenger who would have paid at least $1 more than the last one who booked. I say this as an AA elite who occasionally buys an F fare on UA when AA’s schedule or fare does not meet my needs.
Originally Posted by mvoight
(Post 33166151)
I would tend to agree, but I expect this algorithm is not yet mature enough for seasonal traffic/etc because the number of no shows and cancellations have increased quite a bit since there is no long a charge for changing your trip.
I've posted elsewhere that one of the core issues in airline revenue management is that you have an incredibly sophisticated black box tasked with optimizing network revenue. Individual RM teams, however, are evaluated on their own markets. |
Originally Posted by GunsOfNavarone
(Post 33164576)
I fly 8-12 flights per week, many on AA ......
I have traveled through the pandemic (healthcare related) but still my EQDs are relatively low since my corporate policy makes me buy the lowest y fare available. Even so, i have been fairly successful with upgrades, but it is far from guaranteed and actually LESS than when there were more flights from A to B. I understand the point of above posters who buy F fares last minute and find F full at T-48, but that has always been the case. It is just that now F is more full with other paid F fares along with (fewer) upgraded elites. |
Originally Posted by Herb687
(Post 33165867)
I don't need a lesson in how revenue management works.
To the topic at hand, it’s working as intended. You book away? Fine. They may prefer a full Y fare in the back. Or maybe they actually sold all the F seats, so holding out for a once in awhile last minute purchase isn’t worth the bird in the hand. And AA knows people will accept whatever on rebookings to get to their destination and could care less about holding back for SDCs or IRROPs. RM is not there to hold out for the .1% chance of YOUR actions; it is to respond to major trends from 50+ years of data, and take to the bank guaranteed purchases in favor of holding out for last minute full F - something they learned about 20 years ago when F didn’t sell because it was too expensive. |
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