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Any potential they extend status again in '21?

Any potential they extend status again in '21?

Old Apr 7, 2021, 9:25 am
  #76  
 
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Originally Posted by MiamiAirport Formerly NY George
My guess is that after awhile some of that business travel will come back because of the disaster that's going to occur in industry after industry with this mentality that anything done in person can be accomplished on a Zoom call. But it's not all going to come back, particular expensive long haul.
Well, I mean it looks like its worked for most Companies for the past year or so...

I agree that business travel will come back in some guise, but instead of a crew of auditors being on site for 2 months at year end (to draw from my own industry), you'll see every other week and critical on-site work (walkthroughs and the likes) being compressed into that week.

AA (and DL, UA) will pivot to what they're doing now, monetizing F - cheaper sticker fares/upgrades but more volume. So less upgrades for status'd fliers.
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Old Apr 7, 2021, 1:26 pm
  #77  
 
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Originally Posted by lunchtime
I don't think most airlines are going to extended status again. The real reason is that the business traveler of 2019 will not reflect the business traveler of 2022. People who spent a ton on leisure travel will earn it again or essential business travel that never stopped will earn it again anyway. I think some people on here want it to get extended again, because they know they wont requalify, but that doesn't mean much.
I agree with most of your points. I also think that AA will be reluctant to move the goal-posts mid year with overall bookings on the rise. However, the one thing I could see AA doing is to attempt to incentivize travel later this year after the peak summer travel season ends. Maybe through bonus EQM/EQD, or potentially through another round of rollover EQM/EQD. And yes, I do think that this summer will be a peak in terms of flight bookings, with a reduction in Fall linked to schools re-opening.
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Old Apr 7, 2021, 2:44 pm
  #78  
 
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I am not counting on extension of benefits. We are LTP so not such a big deal. We are buying up to F when we fly, and flying AA and UA. I can say with certainty that academic medicine is being very restrictive on domestic and international business travel which is where we made EXP. This week I got the rules for international business travel. If you have to go, when you come back you must quarantine for 10 days no matter if you test negative, take your temperature twice a day, record any symptoms, all on a spreadsheet and must turn this in for approval before you can go back to work. Vaccine or no vaccine, but the theory is that all providers have had the vax. Nobody likes the virtual academic meetings, but physicians don't get to decide if they can go to a meeting. Administrators do. And with hospital revenue down they are very unlikely to approve any travel unless you make a compelling case. I do have my first TPAC flight in November if Taiwan opens up and China doesn't attack.
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Old Apr 7, 2021, 3:42 pm
  #79  
 
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I think the pandemic just speeded up the inevitable of devaluing business FFers. In part, because of corporate contracts and travel compliance software many FFers don't have the sole discretion to be loyal to AA. I am sure there are plenty of things people do to try force travel to one program. But the people I know that travel the most seem to have very little control of the flights they are on. I think businesses have done a good job controlling travel costs, some even try to get the credit card transaction benefits now. It's no longer lucrative to bribe the road warrior, since they don't have the ability to move to a high margin product. I think it will be come much more targeted in the future. I have my limited leisure flying (mostly J) GF FF account come to my email and the offers she gets are much different and better than I get as a moderate spend EXP.
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Old Apr 7, 2021, 3:52 pm
  #80  
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Originally Posted by boerne
I do have my first TPAC flight in November if Taiwan opens up and China doesn't attack.
I also have a speculative Taiwan trip booked for later in the year. While I really hope they open up, I am not counting on it as they have approximately zero incentive to let us COVID-infested Americans in. Our only hope is to have enough of the population vaccinated that there's minimal risk to the Taiwanese to let us in.

As for requalification, I've gotten vaxxed and resumed my business travel. However, there are three major obstacles in the way of my requalifying for EXP:
1) No international travel (and the speculative int'l trips I have booked for later in the year are award travel thanks to the previously abundant award space and my lack of desire to give AA any more loans than I'd already given)
2) Domestic fares are generally cheap right now, and I've been clearing upgrades quite frequently so haven't needed to buy up to F
3) The schedules right now are AWFUL for business travel IME. Destinations that previously had well-timed and plentiful direct flights now require connections and annoying departure/arrival times - and this is from PHL. Thus, I've found business travel to be a real PITA lately and a giant time suck. I'm still in the habit of favoring AA over others, but when Delta or United have 3x more direct flights to a destination (at departure/arrival times that make sense), it's really tough to stick with AA. Here's an example: PHL-ATL on April 12. (https://www.google.com/travel/flight...fu=EgYIARAAGAA)

At the rate I'm going, it'll be tough to even hit PPRO since I refuse to spend $30k on the credit card.
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Old Apr 7, 2021, 4:02 pm
  #81  
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Originally Posted by hp12c

At the rate I'm going, it'll be tough to even hit PPRO since I refuse to spend $30k on the credit card.
I was strongly considering spending $30k on one of my AA cards.....but I just don't see me flying anywhere international until the end of the year. So I will hit up travel hard in Jan buying J or F on BA for a quick MR to start the year.

Because I have already SUBBED almost every CC known to this forum (haha)mI opted to get an Iberia Airlines Chase CC this month to spend $20k (taxes due in May) for 100,000 Avios instead. Nice to have as a backup stash to my 150,000 BA Avios sitting in that account....and they are transferrable between those two airlines, too!)
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Old Apr 7, 2021, 4:29 pm
  #82  
 
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The major challenge for the US programs is how to retain customers who through no cause of their own are unable to travel at even close to prior levels (ie, US and foreign-based high yield business travelers). With US domestic leisure travel rebounding nicely, and US domestic business travel slightly growing, but unlikely to get back to 2019 levels for several years, primarily US travelers should be able to get within striking distance of substantially reduced requirements during 2021. However, it’s the globetrotting executive who can’t get anywhere close to the requirements. How should an airline executive respond to that condition?

Some progressive-thinking airlines (NZ comes to my mind) enable pax to suspend their status for a year in the event of external forces impacting their lives (parental leaves, taking care of parent/spouse, etc). Good PR and, equally, benefits both pax (extended status for their hard earned efforts) and the carrier (maintains loyalty of a high value customer who then elects to return to the carrier because of the retained status level). I believe the US carriers will end up extending status for the same reasons NZ and others enable pax to extend their own status.

For some US FFP elites, the status earned in 2019 hasn’t been of value or use given factors outside of the pax control (ie, border closings, employer not allowing for Int’l travel). Makes sense to think about 2019 earnings providing for 2022 status when some pax through no fault of their own haven’t been able to use their hard earned status during 2020 and 2021. A different matter for pax that we’re able to earn and fly during 2020 and those pax earned miles and confirmable upgrades for their efforts.

Last edited by SFO_FT; Apr 7, 2021 at 4:35 pm
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Old Apr 7, 2021, 5:57 pm
  #83  
 
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Originally Posted by SFO_FT
The major challenge for the US programs is how to retain customers who through no cause of their own are unable to travel at even close to prior levels (ie, US and foreign-based high yield business travelers). With US domestic leisure travel rebounding nicely, and US domestic business travel slightly growing, but unlikely to get back to 2019 levels for several years, primarily US travelers should be able to get within striking distance of substantially reduced requirements during 2021. However, its the globetrotting executive who cant get anywhere close to the requirements. How should an airline executive respond to that condition?

Some progressive-thinking airlines (NZ comes to my mind) enable pax to suspend their status for a year in the event of external forces impacting their lives (parental leaves, taking care of parent/spouse, etc). Good PR and, equally, benefits both pax (extended status for their hard earned efforts) and the carrier (maintains loyalty of a high value customer who then elects to return to the carrier because of the retained status level). I believe the US carriers will end up extending status for the same reasons NZ and others enable pax to extend their own status.

For some US FFP elites, the status earned in 2019 hasnt been of value or use given factors outside of the pax control (ie, border closings, employer not allowing for Intl travel). Makes sense to think about 2019 earnings providing for 2022 status when some pax through no fault of their own havent been able to use their hard earned status during 2020 and 2021. A different matter for pax that were able to earn and fly during 2020 and those pax earned miles and confirmable upgrades for their efforts.
1) If the globetrotting executive won't be able to get back to 2019 levels for "several years," maybe she isn't all that globetrotting anymore
2) This ignores the issue of how to reward customers who are earning status in 2020 and 2021 - I guess in the AA system, ruling EQD should be a factor, but that may not be enough
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Old Apr 7, 2021, 7:00 pm
  #84  
 
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My son works for a tech firm in sales. They have also squeezed down the travel because Zoom calls have been effective to maintain sales, or even improve them. There is certainly value in face to face sales, but the follow up which might have been face to face will likely be Zoom. I have read futurists that said business travel would come back, and another that said it would never be the same. Basically they are guessing. Who Pays these people?

https://bahighlife.com/business/2020...siness-travel/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adigask...h=7abc26722e09

https://www.cntraveler.com/story/wha...vel-looks-like
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Old Apr 7, 2021, 7:07 pm
  #85  
 
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Originally Posted by Adelphos
1) If the globetrotting executive won't be able to get back to 2019 levels for "several years," maybe she isn't all that globetrotting anymore
2) This ignores the issue of how to reward customers who are earning status in 2020 and 2021 - I guess in the AA system, ruling EQD should be a factor, but that may not be enough
1. Likely globetrotting in 2022, but not in 2021. And in 2022, all travelers will need to achieve the required thresholds, which I anticipate will be lower than the 2019 levels.
2. 2020 and 2021 achieving elites are earning 500m certs and/or eVIPs, as well as the opportunity to jump levels, while freebie elites aren’t. One can argue that eVIPs are more valuable to a globetrotting executive than are unlimited domestic upgrades.

Given the expected 20% decline in business travel $ permanently, look to all airline thresholds to decease for the foreseeable future.
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Old Apr 7, 2021, 7:54 pm
  #86  
 
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Originally Posted by boerne
My son works for a tech firm in sales. They have also squeezed down the travel because Zoom calls have been effective to maintain sales, or even improve them. There is certainly value in face to face sales, but the follow up which might have been face to face will likely be Zoom. I have read futurists that said business travel would come back, and another that said it would never be the same. Basically they are guessing. Who Pays these people?

https://bahighlife.com/business/2020...siness-travel/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adigask...h=7abc26722e09

https://www.cntraveler.com/story/wha...vel-looks-like
Here's the thing though... All it takes is one sales team flying to force competitors to do the same. A zoom call can't match an in person meeting. It definitely can't beat a paid lunch, dinner, team happy hour, whatever. Zoom is good to fill the gaps but I am betting my days off getting away with multitasking on vendor calls are quickly going to become a thing of the past.
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Old Apr 7, 2021, 8:14 pm
  #87  
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Yeah with International travel still a no go for the most part (I'm in a little different situation since I have few trips planned to LHR for family) EQD is tough to get. Domestic Y fares are CHEAP.
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Old Apr 7, 2021, 10:05 pm
  #88  
 
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My prediction is that the overall volume (at least seat-miles) of business travel will hit the 2019 level fairly quickly (maybe 2022-23). But the composition and nature of that travel will change. Travel for meeting a client will probably never recover: the clients know they're ultimately footing the bill for travel and they have a lot more space to just say "this could be a zoom". For sales, the value of travel is also more or less in inverse proportion to how often the people you're selling to are in the office (it'd be pretty creepy to show up at the front door of their home...).

So miles/segments (i.e. time spent) for the most frequent of frequent travelers will, at the median, pretty dramatically decline relative to 2019. But a shift to more distributed teams implies more internal travel, especially in higher-income professions (consider software development). A couple of days in the office every fortnight for some; 1 week in 4 for others; and even for more clerical jobs that could absolutely be done 100% remote, 2-4 offsites a year. Everybody who's working what would have been an office job in 2019 will probably end up doing some business travel. That business travel will look a lot more like leisure travel in terms of scheduling, too (which will hide the rebound), and some of it might not even be OPM (if you're earning a superstar metro salary but living most of the time at what was your summer house, you're probably not expensing the flight).

That means a lot fewer high-tier elites and a lot more low-tier elites (and possibly even tiers below the current AA Gold/DL & UA Silver tiers), and the benefits that move the needle might be different (if the mix is more people who buy up, are complimentary upgrades a useful benefit?).
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Old Apr 8, 2021, 7:13 am
  #89  
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The comment about the schedules is telling because AA reduced the number of banks but increased the volume in the banks. The result is lots of airport congestion and waiting for gates. MIA and DFW are a zoo. So it's either a very risk 45-60 minute connection or a 3 hour connection.

As it is when I arrive at the gate I usually see some poor guy yelling over the airport noise into a MS Teams call (most business travelers are not going to be using an airline lounge). Poorly timed connections and doing work at a very crowded gate aren't going to go well together.

As far as the status extension if one of the US3 does it they all will I just have doubts that AA will lead the pack.
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Old Apr 8, 2021, 3:10 pm
  #90  
 
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Spirit, ,Frontier and Allegiant are going to slaughter the big 4 if they choose to compete on price in leisure markets. With higher cost structures AA, DL, WN, and UA need to incentivize travel for customers who buy F and last minute Y. Seems like giving a few SWU, free bags, and extra RDM through extended status is a small price to pay. We will see.
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