kajukenbo

From a business perspective, I think it's a calculated risk to not announce anything now. It is always easier to loosen requirements (either reduced requirements or bonuses) than tightening requirements. The issue is you risk losing future purchases. Given how high the Executive Platinum requirements are, without bonuses, I doubt I'll make it. So looking at future trips later this year, I won't even bother to purchase from AA. I'll either use miles for flexibility or purchase the best schedule/product/service (which is rarely AA).

enviroian

I would like to see an extension and even more importantly extension of SWU expiration date as where these are primarily used --overseas travel-- isn't possible or at the very least impractical.

jhalapin

Yep. I do that as well.

SFO_FT

+1. To maintain loyalty, they could announce the 1-status extension as well as provide substantially increased bonus award miles to elites for the rest of 2021 (eg, EP get 15 miles per $, etc). When copied by the other carriers, it ensures that each carrier’s elites remain loyal, while minimizing free agent kayaking. Elite status loyalty isn’t done for our benefit—it’s for the carriers’ benefit. Have unrealistic/unachievable status hurdles and your pax won’t engage. Given the recently leveraging of the FFPs, these carriers have even more incentives to maintain elite player ranks, not pare them down.

kajukenbo

Unfortunately AA has been diminishing it's only real competitive advantage, it's affinity program (flyer program), for years. I agree with others that they don't want to announce too early and they want something similar to the other airlines, but I think at this point they've waited too long. At least in the USA, a large portion of the population is going to have the chance to be vaccinated soon. I think that will lead to increase optimism towards travel (especially later in the year). Without any announcements from AA, people will have to make a decision based on what they know now versus future expectations. The longer AA waits, the better chance they will lose their frequent flyers long term (flyers that can't make status deciding to become free agents). AA also risks upsetting the folks that are flying now based on the current AA rules. In short, AA risks alienating a lot of customers. Given my personal experience, AA will have a hard time winning back customers that leave.

All this ignores if we have another wave/lockdown and corresponding reduction in travel. If that happens, I think there would be increased pressure on just outright extensions of status which AA has been trying to avoid.

HaleiwaFlyer

Coming from a different experience: being a Delta Diamond for years, and having to fly for work during the entire COVID time, AA's soft and hard product beats the competitor's offering. The proactive customer service to receive a phone calls about schedule changes, or flight changes, also beats the competitors. AA having announced decreased spending requirements, AA has an advantage currently.

VFR

My gut says that the airlines are going to wait until much later this year to extend status (or offer challenges to regain status early next year, etc.).

Flyers who had elite status in 2019 (or gained status in 2020) are incentivized to fly AA by the previous status extension, because they get elite benefits on AA whereas they might not on other airlines.

Flyers who do not currently have elite status are incentivized to pick an airline (likely based on schedule) and stick with it to get status. These customers can be attracted by the usual Gold / Platinum 3 month status grant and challenge to extend that AA always seems to be throwing around.

redtop43

Even if they extend, there will still be a pecking order defined by those who fly/spend and those who don't. An EXP with $0 spend in CY2021 will be at the back of the line (for upgrades) until they start flying regularly again. And I agree that they have zero to gain by announcing anything right now. I'm EXP with $0 12-month spend, I'm starting to travel again (I've booked four trips between late May and late August) and I'm in paid F on all of them.

Nobody knows how much travel will return, or how quickly, or how much capacity the carriers will restore. If leisure travel comes back quicker and more robustly than business, that should be favorable for upgrades, unless some/many of the leisure travelers buy F. If anyone knows how cost-sensitive they are, it surely isn't me.

Doppy

I think it would be a mistake to do a blanket extension of everyone for another year - essentially giving people status in 2022 for flying they did in 2019. Who knows if people who were HVF 2+ years ago are still in the same jobs, whether their companies will want or need them to travel as much, etc.?

I think a better plan would be a soft landing plus a Q1 2022 challenge to regain or retain status. Their status could even be extended during the Q1 challenge. If things get largely back to normal by the end of the year and you're still not flying in Q1, then the airlines probably don't need to extend your status longer.

At least on AA, elites are prioritized by spend though. On the other airlines, people who earned status each year in 2020 and 2021 could behind those who haven't set foot on a plane in 2+ years for upgrades.

VFR

Back of the line among EXPs but ahead of PRO, PLT, GLD still gives you a chance. It really depends on where you are based and what kind of routes you fly.

SFO_FT

Announcing the status extension later in the year will really upset the pax that were making a concerted effort to fly incremental flights during the course of the year.

In the same way that I doubt many elites—those who were in the process of accumulating their 2020 requirements—were upset last year, when status extensions were announced in April 2020, it would make sense for the carriers to annouce the extensions now, so as to avoid free agency. Also, remember that one would still likely be required to fly this year’s (slightly, currently) lowered thresholds to get the new “elite choice” rewards, including SWUs, bonus miles, etc. So, there’s still pretty good incentives for status-extended elites to want to continue booking AA—to achieve those thresholds.

Doppy

United already has a Q1 bonus elite qualifying promotion. Telling those people now or later in the year "haha, you didn't need to spend any money on that promotion" is not likely to be welcome news.

aamilesslave

If they don't blanket extend status, I could see them still doing so for some of their major corporate customers.

ORDflyer92

I would if they offered 2019 service levels again. There's really little incentive to buy up for me from MCE to F except on premium transcon routes without service.

chris8796

I'd be surprised if they extend it. I think I prefer the current system where paid F is less of a premium relative to Y. I am like the others and tend to pay for F when it is important (leisure). I don't know how most people would make EXP without flying a lot of paid F with $12-15K EQD requirements. It is easier when you can fly INT w OW partners, but even that appears to be changing with many of the EQM/EQDs tables quietly changing during the pandemic for low cost fares. I like the general direction of things, with upgrades less of a benefit and flexibility in your rewards. An SWU is less useful if you need to wait until boarding to see if your upgrade cleared for DFW-HKG, I'm not willing to risk it now. I'd rather fly one of OW partners anyhow. The good thing is there should be many deals the next two years as the survivors fight over the international markets.