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Speculation: will AA & other airlines use this 100 year event to reorg Hubs?

Speculation: will AA & other airlines use this 100 year event to reorg Hubs?

Old May 21, 20, 9:40 pm
  #1  
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Speculation: will AA & other airlines use this 100 year event to reorg Hubs?

While most of the airlines are bleeding cash in the immediate term, it makes sense for some airlines to use this 100 year opportunity to establish themselves in a market where they need a footprint.

While I doubt AA is in the position to do this (more so wind down hubs). Alaska could be aggressive and look at a new hub home somewhere in the middle or east, Jetblue in middle, Frontier somewhere east, and so on.

I do not think they will have another change at the playing-field being leveled as it has been in the last three months.
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Old May 21, 20, 9:41 pm
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Originally Posted by DistrictOfColumbia View Post
While most of the airlines are bleeding cash in the immediate term, it makes sense for some airlines to use this 100 year opportunity to establish themselves in a market where they need a footprint.

While I doubt AA is in the position to do this (more so wind down hubs). Alaska could be aggressive and look at a new hub home somewhere in the middle or east, Jetblue in middle, Frontier somewhere east, and so on.

I do not think they will have another change at the playing-field being leveled as it has been in the last three months.
Establish new hubs with what money?
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Old May 22, 20, 12:08 am
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Originally Posted by DistrictOfColumbia View Post
While most of the airlines are bleeding cash in the immediate term, it makes sense for some airlines to use this 100 year opportunity to establish themselves in a market where they need a footprint.

While I doubt AA is in the position to do this (more so wind down hubs). Alaska could be aggressive and look at a new hub home somewhere in the middle or east, Jetblue in middle, Frontier somewhere east, and so on.

I do not think they will have another change at the playing-field being leveled as it has been in the last three months.
do you have any specific suggestions for where a new hub would make sense? If itís a current non-hub city, where do you see enough demand to warrant a hub or focus city? If if itís already a hub for someone else, if demand increases again would the existing hub airline just ramp up flights to keep out a competitor?
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Old May 22, 20, 6:52 am
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Originally Posted by dls25 View Post
Establish new hubs with what money?
Exactly. Airline hubs require infrastructure. Neither airlines nor the various agencies that run individual airports are going to be spending money on that type infrastructure improvements for a very long time.

Additionally, the increase of flights that come with a hub won't be popular with some local residents. I'd imagine lawsuits would happen, which would delay any action for a significant time period.
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Old May 22, 20, 10:01 am
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Originally Posted by DistrictOfColumbia View Post
While most of the airlines are bleeding cash in the immediate term, it makes sense for some airlines to use this 100 year opportunity to establish themselves in a market where they need a footprint.

While I doubt AA is in the position to do this (more so wind down hubs). Alaska could be aggressive and look at a new hub home somewhere in the middle or east, Jetblue in middle, Frontier somewhere east, and so on.

I do not think they will have another change at the playing-field being leveled as it has been in the last three months.
The only way this is likely to happen is if AA files for Ch. 7 and ends up being liquidated. In that instance I could see other airlines (AS, B6, F9, DL, UA, etc.) bidding on some of the profitable elements of the AA operation as things rebound.

Otherwise, no. I would not expect to see any natural growth by any of these airlines in markets vacated by AA, at least initially. It's possible that down the road ULCCs could pick up some route that AA may have abandoned from lack of profitability.
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Old May 22, 20, 11:50 am
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Originally Posted by writerguyfl View Post
Additionally, the increase of flights that come with a hub won't be popular with some local residents. I'd imagine lawsuits would happen, which would delay any action for a significant time period.
Sorry for the potentially stupid question, but why would lawsuits happen? Noise and/or other environmental impact concerns? Or something else?
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Old May 22, 20, 12:32 pm
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The only opportunities for profitable hub expansion are abandoned ex-hubs like PIT and MEM. That would take money AA has not got, ands fly in the face of the industry-wide hunch that all networks carriers will come out of this smaller and leaner and struggling for black ink, not expanding.
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Old May 22, 20, 1:03 pm
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Not a chance. Airlines will be hunkering down in their fortress hubs and shedding unprofitable ones. A smaller footprint means cities will be served by reduced frequencies from fewer hubs, so expect more/longer connections than in the past. Expanding into new hubs requires heavy capital at a time when airlines are facing precarious cash flow and balance sheet situations. At best, such an expansion would be the better part of a decade away for any US airline right now.
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Old May 22, 20, 4:28 pm
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I would imagine most airlines will reduce traffic through their secondary hubs given the lower overall traffic. Once traffic starts to recover, the airlines might reconsider their options for secondary hubs.
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Old May 22, 20, 4:55 pm
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Originally Posted by meh130 View Post
I would imagine most airlines will reduce traffic through their secondary hubs given the lower overall traffic. Once traffic starts to recover, the airlines might reconsider their options for secondary hubs.
There's isn't a hub that hasn't had significant reductions since the cutbacks began back in late March. Both primary and secondary hubs have gotten whacked.
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Old May 22, 20, 5:59 pm
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Perhaps a downsizing as reactionary move due reduced demand, but no way to carve into a new market. No one has the capital for that right now.
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Old May 22, 20, 7:33 pm
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while this isnít exclusive to airlines, let me sum it up in 2 bullet points


Thoughts on mind of executives in the world today:
survival and how to get back to a new normal

Thoughts on the mind of people who would go bankrupt running a hot dog cart:
Letís spend money in ways that wont make money, at least anytime soon
arollins and hhdl like this.

Last edited by DataPlumber; May 22, 20 at 7:39 pm
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Old May 22, 20, 7:40 pm
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Originally Posted by DataPlumber View Post
while this isnít exclusive to airlines, let me sum it up in 2 bullet points


Thoughts on mind of executives in the world today:
survival and how to get back to a new normal

Thoughts on the mind of people who still live off mom and dad:
Letís spend money in ways that wont make money, at least anytime soon
So, are you suggesting that executives in the world today are more shortsighted than people living of their parents?
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Old May 22, 20, 7:40 pm
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Which hub is more important to AA? DFW, MIA or ORD?
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Old May 22, 20, 7:42 pm
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Originally Posted by cmd320 View Post
So, are you suggesting that executives in the world today are more shortsighted than people living of their parents?
On second thought I did change it someone who owns a hot dog cart.
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