allset2travel

AA is always a follower, hence D!

Centurion

D Follow the legacy airlines by signals sent out Sunday night with new fare increases. If other airlines follow the increase you stick to the customer that just bailed you out and hold the higher new fare. It's like smoke signals

Hawkeyefan

I wouldn't hesitate to travel now, but too many routes down better to wait.

cw22288

Domestic fares in China are significantly lower than before even though China is now pretty much back to normal. Airlines need to cover their losses and so they sell discounted tickets to get more people buying tickets in advance.It would take a long time to recover the demand even when it is safe to travel.

MSYtoJFKagain

The price, as always, will be dictated by the market.

jerseytom

Seems to me like post-9/11 data would be a pretty decent comparison point. At least a start point. I was still in HS at the time and really have no first hand experience.

Personally I would love to get my personal travel back on track once this has all been flushed out. However, having been forced to use almost all of what little PTO I have to sit at home, I'm not sure if I'll even have the opportunity until at least a year from now

xliioper

You don't say. Sorry, but I suspect "air fares going up after it's over" is not one of the things most people think about when they consider pandemic "dark sides".

oopsz

I think large segments of the economy will take years to recover, and with it a lot of leisure travel demand is going to just evaporate. People were still traveling in 2008 but by 2009 belts were tightening.

It will come down to the amount of lift that the airlines are forced to fly. If that exceeds demand, ticket prices will be low.

I mean, leased planes have to fly if the lessor won't take them back, because otherwise it's just burning cash. Owned planes can be grounded or stored. Outstanding deliveries can potentially be deferred (not sure about the 737 MAX deliveries that are on hold).

IADCAflyer

For now there are some good deals out there. Booked DCA-SNA F class for late August for $800 r/t.

MikeShores

There's too many variables still left undetermined for me to make a choice...and I would imagine that is the case at revenue management as well.

My considerations, however, would take into consideration that government loans/grants/etc will come with no/reduced layoff caveats. That said, if I were managing an airline and took a loan that required me to maintain my flight crews on the payroll, I would schedule them for their minimum contracted duty hours. That base for flight attendants is either 71 (lineholder) or 75 (reserve) hours per month. That would be the minimum amount of flying I would do. After that, the market would dictate the pricing...if flights are running more full, increase the price and/or frequency/gauge. If flights are running at lower capacity, reduce the price and/or gauge.

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

The schedule changes in May are something totally bizarre. One x two hub to hub flights a day. Some routes not operating on certain days, for example no direct MIA/ATL on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. In May the only way for me to leave ATL in the afternoon is to connect through DFW arriving back at MIA at 1:22AM or a double connection through CLT and DCA. Lot's of business people are going to look at these schedules and say "digital remote." I know it will come as a shock but most road warriors don't obsess on whether 3F or 4F is the better seat on a 738. Nor do they want to spend their days visiting multiple airports particularly if ACs are closed.

I think Parker has been hitting the sauce too much to think things will be back to normal by September.

Firewind

I submit that the vastly most important question is: "Vaccine, or no vaccine?"

allset2travel

+1. Same here.

diver858

Something will have to give after the current loan terms expire, airlines are no longer required to retain staff, as there will simply be too much capacity - well beyond what ULCC fares can fill. Virgin Australia and South African are done, the list will continue to grow - even negative oil prices can't help.

Under the current conditions, airlines are no longer too big to fail, US Treasury cannot print enough money to keep them all afloat indefinitely. While it will be painful, it is time for the US Government to step back, allow market forces to decide which carriers survive, what they will look like. At that point, it will be reasonable to expect fares to increase relative to pre-Covid19 levels, settle back down once new competitors enter the market.

Tack

If it were me? Buy now. I’ve continued to fly to support my small business. Fares are the best I’ve seen in years. I’ve purchased my twice a month travel through to the 4th quarter. I plan on buying the remainder of the year this month.
The fact that my EP status carries over is also helping by not having to buy up or purchase FC fares to make the EQD requirement.