Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Airlines and Mileage Programs > American Airlines | AAdvantage
Reload this Page >

Which AA hub will hurt the most from travel slowdown / stop?

Which AA hub will hurt the most from travel slowdown / stop?

Old Mar 16, 20, 12:32 pm
  #1  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: SLC
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Plat
Posts: 550
Which AA hub will hurt the most from travel slowdown / stop?

Wondering what AA Hub will experience the most pain from the travel slow/stop.

My guess is CLT. They have the lowest landing/ passenger fees in the AA network, and a huge volume from early morning to late night. AA has huge overall market-share of 91% at CLT.

Maybe being the low cost landing/Passenger fee leader has a major risk when volume significantly drops.
GunsOfNavarone is offline  
Old Mar 16, 20, 12:42 pm
  #2  
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EP, AA AC
Posts: 4,202
Originally Posted by GunsOfNavarone View Post
Wondering what AA Hub will experience the most pain from the travel slow/stop.

My guess is CLT. They have the lowest landing/ passenger fees in the AA network, and a huge volume from early morning to late night. AA has huge overall market-share of 91% at CLT.

Maybe being the low cost landing/Passenger fee leader has a major risk when volume significantly drops.
I actually doubt it will be CLT. You point out CLT low operational costs which tends to swing in its favor I think. In addition, general NC exposure to the virus (as opposed to bigger population centers) make us a tad less likely to feel the same strain of the other hubs (though there will be considerable strain the Lord knows). We also did not have a great deal of international flights. I would expect LAX, JFK, PHL and to lesser extent DFW and/or ORD to feel it worse than Charlotte.

Safe Travels
LovePrunes and BWISkyGuy like this.
GTITAN is offline  
Old Mar 16, 20, 12:49 pm
  #3  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Programs: AAdvantage PP
Posts: 12,960
if the US halts domestic air travel it's game over for this industry. It won't be just CLT and it won't be just AA. Airlines will fail in mass because certain fixed costs will continue with no revenue coming in. Untold numbers in the travel and hospitality industry will find themselves immediately unemployed. An airline can't park it's entire fleet and be around for very long.
MiamiAirport Formerly NY George is offline  
Old Mar 16, 20, 1:17 pm
  #4  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: SLC
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Plat
Posts: 550
Originally Posted by MiamiAirport Formerly NY George View Post
if the US halts domestic air travel it's game over for this industry. It won't be just CLT and it won't be just AA. Airlines will fail in mass because certain fixed costs will continue with no revenue coming in. Untold numbers in the travel and hospitality industry will find themselves immediately unemployed. An airline can't park it's entire fleet and be around for very long.
LAX, DFW, ORD, MIA, etc have some alternative revenue coming in from cargo, and I speculate other streams of revenue that will continue to flow less PAX/ Landing fees. There is some potential diversification.

CLT does have a Air National Guard on its field, but I am of aware of what else they have to aid in the loss of revenue.
GunsOfNavarone is offline  
Old Mar 16, 20, 1:35 pm
  #5  
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: ORD / MDW / FLL
Programs: DL DM/1MM, AA EXP, SPG Platinum, Hyatt Platinum, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 2,089
I have to imagine it would be PHX. Heavily reliant on tourism to the lovely weather. Not as much business traffic as moving through the other hubs (sans-MIA, but that serves a larger O&D market). The other hub to get decimated will be JFK since it is reliant on O&D traffic mostly, all TATL flights are done and NY is growing as an epicenter of the domestic outbreak.

This is just bad...bad...bad...
LovePrunes and E55 like this.
SOBE ER DOC is offline  
Old Mar 16, 20, 1:43 pm
  #6  
IHG Contributor Badge
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AA EXP, IHG Spire, IC Amb
Posts: 4,075
Originally Posted by SOBE ER DOC View Post
I have to imagine it would be PHX. Heavily reliant on tourism to the lovely weather. Not as much business traffic as moving through the other hubs (sans-MIA, but that serves a larger O&D market). The other hub to get decimated will be JFK since it is reliant on O&D traffic mostly, all TATL flights are done and NY is growing as an epicenter of the domestic outbreak.

This is just bad...bad...bad...
PHX was busy on Thursday and Sunday of this past week based on my visits and flights being 90% full top/from PDX.
E55 likes this.
355F1 is offline  
Old Mar 16, 20, 3:06 pm
  #7  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: ORD/MDW
Programs: BA/AA/AS/B6/WN/ UA/HH/MR and more like 'em but most felicitously & importantly MUCCI
Posts: 19,013
Originally Posted by MiamiAirport Formerly NY George View Post
if the US halts domestic air travel it's game over for this industry... Airlines will fail in mass because certain fixed costs will continue with no revenue coming in.
There is talk today of $25 billion in direct government grants to US passenger carriers to keep them liquid, with another $4 billion for cargo airlines, plus another $20 to $30 billion in credit lines and tax easements. That would go a long way to preventing the outcome you suggest.
BearX220 is offline  
Old Mar 16, 20, 3:09 pm
  #8  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: NYC
Programs: DL GM, AAdvantage EXECPLAT, Hyatt Plat, HHonors Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 6,793
JFK if you can even call that a hub anymore.
AANYC1981 is offline  
Old Mar 16, 20, 3:14 pm
  #9  
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: MSP/BUF/BNA/LFT
Programs: AA Plat, Priority Club Gold, Choice Privileges Gold
Posts: 743
I'm going to speculate PHX and MIA as well. Much of the travel demand to PHX is discretionary (i.e. vacations and conferences etc) that have the most risk for being cancelled under the current climate. MIA is the most international oriented of the hubs so it will suffer the most from the international travel restrictions.
dls25 is offline  
Old Mar 16, 20, 3:56 pm
  #10  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Austin, TX
Programs: Airline Free Agent, Hilton, Hyatt, IHG
Posts: 1,566
JFK looks to be most vulnerable. LAX as well if TPAC traffic remains down for a long time.
Austin787 is offline  
Old Mar 16, 20, 6:52 pm
  #11  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Programs: AA PLT, HH Gold
Posts: 102
I hate to say this but JFK as much as I would like to see that back as a major hub.

AA went forward with a brand new terminal and 9-11 happened and the terminal was cut back in size.

Now they are to move forward to expanding and upgrading the terminal for the BA move over and now this which may put the improvement in jeopardy.

Maybe with the bailout money they can use it to come back bigger and better attractive to build back travel in NYC.
LovePrunes likes this.
jmoskal is offline  
Old Mar 16, 20, 7:03 pm
  #12  
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: CLT
Posts: 64
Originally Posted by GunsOfNavarone View Post
Wondering what AA Hub will experience the most pain from the travel slow/stop.

My guess is CLT. They have the lowest landing/ passenger fees in the AA network, and a huge volume from early morning to late night. AA has huge overall market-share of 91% at CLT.

Maybe being the low cost landing/Passenger fee leader has a major risk when volume significantly drops.
Ehhh... I still picked up 1493 flights on my flight aware at CLT today and that's pretty much spot on for the last few months. Sometimes a little less, sometimes around 1700 but 1500 is about the norm. If it starts dropping off a ton then I'd be worried about CLT but American hasn't cut as much as other carriers. If I was Chicago, PHL, JFK where international flights make me a ton of money and all of my carriers quit I would be extremely worried. PHX and CLT will probably weather the storm unless domestic travel ceases.
BarrenLucidity is offline  
Old Mar 16, 20, 7:58 pm
  #13  
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: los angeles, calif.
Programs: AAdvantage PLAT
Posts: 7,104
Originally Posted by SOBE ER DOC View Post
I have to imagine it would be PHX. Heavily reliant on tourism to the lovely weather. Not as much business traffic as moving through the other hubs (sans-MIA, but that serves a larger O&D market). The other hub to get decimated will be JFK since it is reliant on O&D traffic mostly, all TATL flights are done and NY is growing as an epicenter of the domestic outbreak.

This is just bad...bad...bad...
huh? MIA is an infinitely larger business market than Phoenix and one of the most important business travel markets in the country.

Post-9/11, MIA suffered the least because of the resiliency of LatAm travel, but I donít think thatíll be the case this time around. Everybody will be hurting.
MAH4546 is offline  
Old Mar 17, 20, 6:10 am
  #14  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Programs: AAdvantage PP
Posts: 12,960
Originally Posted by MAH4546 View Post
huh? MIA is an infinitely larger business market than Phoenix and one of the most important business travel markets in the country.

Post-9/11, MIA suffered the least because of the resiliency of LatAm travel, but I donít think thatíll be the case this time around. Everybody will be hurting.
I'm in the MIA D30 AC and it's packed. Other than the way they have the food laid out (and no bowl of the mints I like) you'd never know there was anything called a Corona virus. Going through the MIA airport this morning and even here in the AC there's no shortage of frail, sickly looking seniors, some in wheelchairs. As I said you can't legislation common sense.
AANYC1981, JB OmahAA and rollthere like this.
MiamiAirport Formerly NY George is offline  
Old Mar 17, 20, 6:46 am
  #15  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 1,962
Originally Posted by BarrenLucidity View Post
Ehhh... I still picked up 1493 flights on my flight aware at CLT today and that's pretty much spot on for the last few months. Sometimes a little less, sometimes around 1700 but 1500 is about the norm. If it starts dropping off a ton then I'd be worried about CLT but American hasn't cut as much as other carriers. If I was Chicago, PHL, JFK where international flights make me a ton of money and all of my carriers quit I would be extremely worried. PHX and CLT will probably weather the storm unless domestic travel ceases.
AA has already said the domestic cutbacks are coming in April and May (20% and 30%). Don't expect CLT to be spared. UA/DL domestic cutbacks also don't go effect until April, and look to have largely been loaded into systems at this point (either via cancellation or zeroing out flights). AA looks to be a bit behind UA/DL in sizing up where they will cut domestically, but it is definitely coming.
xliioper is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Search Engine: