DFW-AKL in J = $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Old Feb 7, 20, 4:09 pm
  #1  
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DFW-AKL in J = $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

While I'm sitting in the FS lounge in MIA for my 2+ hour delayed inbound aircraft I thought I'd jump on the mighty aa.com and what the newly released fares are looking like on the DFW-Auckland route in December. I can't even begin to comprehend the algorithms AA revenue management use on pricing but at $16k return in biz (with one seat sold, and that's probably a crew block), I ask myself and those around me how many people will pay that? God forbid $32k for a couple or what about the Freddy Kruger of pain inducing CC charges - $64k for a family of four! You kids can sit in the back!


Even $4k Y, $11k (!) in PE it's bordering on Uber surcharging!

And no, no SWUs to be seen of course.
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Old Feb 7, 20, 4:20 pm
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They've likely loaded full fare rates only. Theres no Y being sold at all, which indicates that they haven't set it all up yet.
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Old Feb 7, 20, 4:32 pm
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Given that this is a new route, the revenue management software might be having difficulty finding the correct pricing. I used to be a hotel revenue manager. If American Airlines' software is anything like what I used, these dates/routes will be front and center on the exceptions report. Basically, that report is the software saying: "Help me, humans! I don't know how to interpret this data!"

Since there are still many months to go, I'd guess that the humans will wait until spring or summer before worrying about how to price the highest demand dates (Christmas/New Year). That's how we would have handled it in the hotel. Wait until the prices for the "regular" days solidifies before dealing with the holiday dates.

AA still has tons of time to finalize their prices. There's little downside to waiting, I would imagine. That's not great if you're a flyer who wants to book now; but AA only cares that the seat will eventually gets sold. Whether it's sold to the planner or the person booking 4 weeks before the flight is immaterial to the airline.
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Last edited by writerguyfl; Feb 7, 20 at 4:34 pm Reason: Changed first sentence qualifier from probably to might.
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Old Feb 7, 20, 6:45 pm
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There are mid-week seasonal I fares for $6094 roundtrip early in December (returns through Dec 10th) and there are dates with I bucket available in both directions. There are somewhat higher I fares published for flights after the 10th, but they just haven't opened any inventory yet in I bucket for those dates. As others have noted, the window to book these flights has just opened and you should give it some time and they will likely open some bucket availability on dates later in December. Getting late in December (after 17th or so) is going to see higher demand due to holidays. So even if their aren't many seats booked yet, rev management is well aware of the demand profile around holidays and you can't really expect them to release a lot of I and D bucket inventory just because flights don't have many seats booked yet. Do you really believe rev management only looks at current seats booked and does not consider well known historical seasonal demand patterns when releasing fare bucket inventory? Sorry, but they are a bit more sophisticated than that.


American (AA) ILX4AYN1 DFW to AKL
General notes BASIC SEASON MIDWEEK BUSINESS EXCURSION I FARES APPLIES FOR ROUND TRIP FARES FOR ADULT
Category 2: Day/Time restrictions PERMITTED MON THROUGH THU ON EACH TRANSPACIFIC SECTOR.
Category 3: Seasonal restrictions PERMITTED 11FEB THROUGH 27MAR OR 07OCT THROUGH 10DEC ON THE OUTBOUND TRANSPACIFIC SECTOR.




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Last edited by xliioper; Feb 7, 20 at 6:57 pm
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Old Feb 7, 20, 6:50 pm
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That's in line with Qantas' $17K flex business rates for DFW-SYD in mid/late December, which AA is now allowed to coordinate with. "Saver" (on QF) drops it to $12K and a "sale" to around $9K, and these are pretty well-tested levels, so you can probably expect to see something along those lines for AKL in the future.
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Old Feb 7, 20, 11:04 pm
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Originally Posted by writerguyfl View Post
Given that this is a new route, the revenue management software might be having difficulty finding the correct pricing. I used to be a hotel revenue manager. If American Airlines' software is anything like what I used, these dates/routes will be front and center on the exceptions report. Basically, that report is the software saying: "Help me, humans! I don't know how to interpret this data!"

Since there are still many months to go, I'd guess that the humans will wait until spring or summer before worrying about how to price the highest demand dates (Christmas/New Year). That's how we would have handled it in the hotel. Wait until the prices for the "regular" days solidifies before dealing with the holiday dates.

AA still has tons of time to finalize their prices. There's little downside to waiting, I would imagine. That's not great if you're a flyer who wants to book now; but AA only cares that the seat will eventually gets sold. Whether it's sold to the planner or the person booking 4 weeks before the flight is immaterial to the airline.
Good explanation, thanks. I was looking at these fares a couple weeks ago, and they were eye watering. There was no mileage award pricing built in yet, but I imagine it would have been as bad as $$ fares.

SO and I are fleshing out a trip to somewhere in the far South Pacific/SE Asia sometime next Spring. NZ is on the list, as are Vietnam and Thailand. All our transoceanic travel so far has been Europe, where we can find sub 3k fares in J to almost anywhere, with a little searching and waiting.
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Old Feb 8, 20, 5:19 am
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Originally Posted by NotDuncan View Post
Good explanation, thanks. I was looking at these fares a couple weeks ago, and they were eye watering. There was no mileage award pricing built in yet, but I imagine it would have been as bad as $$ fares.
Just to reemphasize, I'm merely speculating. But, it's speculation based on at least some relevant experience.

One hotel where I worked as Revenue Manager was a beta testing site for the revenue management software the chain developed. It's the software that's now used at all of their hotels worldwide. Since I was providing feedback directly to the programmers about how to improve the software, they sent me to the Central Reservations Office for training prior to implementation. It was four days of revenue management training, which is about 3.5 days more than most "regular" hotel managers got. All the programmers/project managers had background in airline revenue management. As such, a lot of their examples came from airlines.
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Old Feb 8, 20, 5:45 am
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They just have not opened all of the fares that have been filed. Give it a little more time. The most expensive fare filed on this route, incidentally, is F1E0EUN5 One-Way 16195.00 USD
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Old Feb 8, 20, 6:29 am
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with fares that high.. maybe my SWU might clear
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Old Feb 8, 20, 7:27 am
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Originally Posted by fotographer View Post
with fares that high.. maybe my SWU might clear
At least you have a sense of humor!
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Old Feb 8, 20, 8:27 am
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One can book round trip in J for 370,000 miles during that same time period. That actually seems like a bargain given the cash price.
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Old Feb 8, 20, 8:34 am
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UA AKL/SFO in J on 12/05=$2,198. So, yes, the pricing is a little off.
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Old Feb 8, 20, 8:36 am
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Originally Posted by NotDuncan View Post
Good explanation, thanks. I was looking at these fares a couple weeks ago, and they were eye watering. There was no mileage award pricing built in yet, but I imagine it would have been as bad as $$ fares.

SO and I are fleshing out a trip to somewhere in the far South Pacific/SE Asia sometime next Spring. NZ is on the list, as are Vietnam and Thailand. All our transoceanic travel so far has been Europe, where we can find sub 3k fares in J to almost anywhere, with a little searching and waiting.
what time of year are you seeing sub $3k J fares to europe? Curious because im seeing $1500-2k in Y to italy all year,
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Old Feb 8, 20, 9:27 am
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Originally Posted by geepmaley View Post
what time of year are you seeing sub $3k J fares to europe? Curious because im seeing $1500-2k in Y to italy all year,
I haven't looked for anything this year, but last October flew DFW-MAD return in J for $2750pp. Tickets were purchased in April. As I said, you need to keep searching and hopefully find a fare sale. My girlfriend and I usually take at least one trip to Europe a year, and I've never paid much more than 3k per ticket. I will search for at least a month, and usually book several months in advance.
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Old Feb 8, 20, 10:36 am
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Originally Posted by NotDuncan View Post
Good explanation, thanks. I was looking at these fares a couple weeks ago, and they were eye watering. There was no mileage award pricing built in yet, but I imagine it would have been as bad as $$ fares.

SO and I are fleshing out a trip to somewhere in the far South Pacific/SE Asia sometime next Spring. NZ is on the list, as are Vietnam and Thailand. All our transoceanic travel so far has been Europe, where we can find sub 3k fares in J to almost anywhere, with a little searching and waiting.
Don't understand this. There are sub 3k QR J fares to SE Asia year round. Then redeeming AA miles from Asia to NZ is one of the sweet spots at 40k each way in J. No point waiting for a cheap AA J fare to NZ...it'll likely never come.
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