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Does EXP experience get worse after successfully completing trial?

Does EXP experience get worse after successfully completing trial?

Old Jan 15, 20, 5:21 pm
  #31  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Wanting First. Buying First.
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Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
I'm at 18% upgrade rate being DFW based.
Originally Posted by Antarius View Post
You have the lowest upgrade percentage I've ever heard of. I was DFW based a few years ago and didnt have it this bad.
DFW-based Platinum here. My upgrade rate was 36% in 2019.

Only upgrade-eligible flights are in the denominator. Obviously paid first and upgrade-ineligible fares (award redemption, basic economy, etc.) need to be excluded from the denominator.
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Old Jan 15, 20, 7:56 pm
  #32  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: ORD, sadly...
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Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
A lot has changed in two years too. Before EQD ranking I was indeed in the mid 80 percentage wise. Now at a rolling EQD at only $20K I'm in the high teens. Yep.
My EQD is definitely at the bottom end of EP yet I'll bet my upgrade percentage is better than 75...and I can't remember the last time I wasn't upgraded in/out of that awful "captive" DFW.

Guess I'm just lucky.
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Old Jan 15, 20, 8:11 pm
  #33  
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That's what makes me think there is an algorithm in play as my eqd is very small right now , like 1k. I am still about 90 or even 100 percent flying through phx or DFW.
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Old Jan 15, 20, 8:14 pm
  #34  
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Originally Posted by GrumpyYoungMan View Post
My EQD is definitely at the bottom end of EP yet I'll bet my upgrade percentage is better than 75...and I can't remember the last time I wasn't upgraded in/out of that awful "captive" DFW.

Guess I'm just lucky.
I don't understand how this happens. Just about every flight I take is zeroed out across the board so no upgrade.

Tomorrow for instance I'm on 1630 from atl to dfw. Zeroed out....no upgrade for me and will probably be in the mid teens out of 40 folks. What routes do you fly? Biloxi?
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Old Jan 15, 20, 9:12 pm
  #35  
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
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Originally Posted by ZBigFam View Post
That's what makes me think there is an algorithm in play as my eqd is very small right now , like 1k. I am still about 90 or even 100 percent flying through phx or DFW.
I really think it goes back to timing. This is where ExpertFlyer comes in handy for me. I take a quick look before I book flights to or through a hub; if the flight looks full compared to "normal" (*) then I might buy F upfront or use a BXP1, etc.; for my routine flights like DCA to SDF, MIA, etc., however, I just book Y. I have >90% upgrade success overall but that is skewed in my favor because a lot of my flights (see e.g. DCA-SDF) are on E75s with high F-Y seat ratio, and a lot of my DCA-DFW activity is on Tues/Wed/Fri rather than the busier Sun/Mon/Thurs. Note that I have pretty good upgrade success even when I'm on award tickets, which are prioritized after all EXP revenue tickets (but higher than PPRO).

Anyhow I very much doubt that there's an algorithm at play.

* "normal" above is hard to quantify--depends on how far out, day of the week, etc.
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Old Jan 15, 20, 9:28 pm
  #36  
 
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Originally Posted by ZBigFam View Post
That's what makes me think there is an algorithm in play as my eqd is very small right now , like 1k. I am still about 90 or even 100 percent flying through phx or DFW.
Given that AA's systems basically run on ENIAC and cant validate an expired card at the time of booking, I am confident that there is no algorithm present.
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Old Jan 15, 20, 9:31 pm
  #37  
 
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Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
I don't understand how this happens. Just about every flight I take is zeroed out across the board so no upgrade.

Tomorrow for instance I'm on 1630 from atl to dfw. Zeroed out....no upgrade for me and will probably be in the mid teens out of 40 folks.
Did you see where I posted that day of week, time of day, and directionality matter?

If I had to pick a flight where one would be least likely to be upgraded, ATL>DFW at 4:30pm on a Thursday afternoon would be right at the top of my list.

If you don't think directionality matters, look at the difference between ATL>DFW versus DFW>ATL tomorrow afternoon.

I have cleared weekday upgrades DFW<>ATL as a Plat. I've also bought my share of paid first on that route (on AA and DL). It's all about understanding directional POO trends, which in this market is trivially easy to do.
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Old Jan 16, 20, 12:00 am
  #38  
 
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Originally Posted by Beltway2A View Post
Bolding mine. Flying any non-UA airline to/from SFO means competing with significantly fewer elites, including especially those at the GS/CK/360 level, per flight.
I don't understand the logic here ... given the hub and spoke model any non-UA flight into SFO is coming from that non-UA airline's own hub. F or example why would DFW-SFO on AA have fewer AA elites than a flight on UA from DFW to SFO has UA elites?

If there is a hub explanation I think it would be that the OP was probably going DSM-DEN-SFO before versus DSM-DFW-SFO now, and that previous UA route has a hub-to-hub flight in it, whereas the AA route is only hub-to-spoke flights.
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Old Jan 16, 20, 5:19 am
  #39  
 
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Originally Posted by LondonElite View Post
Glad to hear that UA is actually selling F tickets rather than upgrading everyone. Good news!
Do not disagree, just a shame what has happened to the old United First Class.
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Old Jan 16, 20, 8:45 am
  #40  
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
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Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
I don't understand how this happens. Just about every flight I take is zeroed out across the board so no upgrade.

Tomorrow for instance I'm on 1630 from atl to dfw. Zeroed out....no upgrade for me and will probably be in the mid teens out of 40 folks. What routes do you fly? Biloxi?
Biloxi is only once a year.

But I'm usually not on the "beautiful people" routes, and rarely do Monday mornings or Thursday evenings. Almost always clear between DFW and ORD, but again I try to stay away from super heavy travel times.
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Old Jan 16, 20, 8:54 am
  #41  
 
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Originally Posted by GrumpyYoungMan View Post
Biloxi is only once a year.

But I'm usually not on the "beautiful people" routes...
If Biloxi is a proxy for Cedar Rapids, Wichita, and Midland/Odessa, I have missed upgrades in all of those markets.

It's not beautiful people who pay AA's fuel bill!
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Old Jan 16, 20, 11:04 am
  #42  
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Originally Posted by Herb687 View Post
Did you see where I posted that day of week, time of day, and directionality matter?

If I had to pick a flight where one would be least likely to be upgraded, ATL>DFW at 4:30pm on a Thursday afternoon would be right at the top of my list.

If you don't think directionality matters, look at the difference between ATL>DFW versus DFW>ATL tomorrow afternoon.

I have cleared weekday upgrades DFW<>ATL as a Plat. I've also bought my share of paid first on that route (on AA and DL). It's all about understanding directional POO trends, which in this market is trivially easy to do.
Iím 12 on the list out of 65 today. LOL
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Old Jan 16, 20, 11:15 am
  #43  
 
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OP - As others have stated, there isn't any algorithm. Upgrades are based on rolling EQD and impacted significantly by routing / timing. So far this year I'm 8/9 on eligible flights with about $27k Rolling EQD. The more you spend, the more likely of an upgrade. I've certainly been happy with my upgrade rate so far this year. I think I was probably more in the 60-75% range last year but I have some flexibility in my flight times. Hub to hub is always harder especially in peak times. The one miss I had was yesterday late afternoon PHL-PHX. I was #4 on the list and I don't believe anyone was upgraded. My one highlight this year was scoring an upgrade on PHX to CLT which was on a 330 with lie flats. Nice surprise. That was a gate upgrade that I was #1 on the list (I think 2 upgraded). This is also with a 28 seat F cabin.
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Old Jan 16, 20, 1:09 pm
  #44  
 
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Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
I’m 12 on the list out of 65 today.
Thursday afternoon. ATL>DFW. Of course you are.

Want first? Buy first.

(Or walk over to the gate for a DL ATL>DFW flight leaving around the same time as yours. I'm sure you will see a shorter upgrade list. Do the same thing at DFW looking at DFW>ATL flights on a Monday morning. The directional difference between AA and DL will be striking.)
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Old Jan 16, 20, 1:22 pm
  #45  
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Originally Posted by Herb687 View Post
Want first? Buy first.
Please cite where I said anything about complaining about not being upgraded on this flight?

FWIW Iím now 19/73. Iíve never seen 73 people on a upgrade list let alone a non hub to hub flight.
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