Possibly oversold flight from LHR - bump possibility, EC261?
 

I know this is a query about an AA flight from LHR, but I find the knowledge on the BA sub forum second to none, hence the post.

I'm flying with my wife on AA39 LHR-MIA tomorrow and it's been sold out for the best part of a week. I'm guessing it's well oversold. We've got a basic economy seating and I/we now have no status. We will be prime candidates to be bumped.

I tried to OLCI and it wouldn't allow me. I've had this situation before, and subsequently been denied boarding, so would like to be prepared for the eventuality (even if it doesn't happen), and so I could influence the outcome, or fight my case at the check-in desk.

Firstly, if AA deny us boarding on the direct flight to MIA, and then ry to route us via JFK, PHL or CLT, do they have to ask for volunteers before denying us boarding?

Secondly, if they do deny us boarding, and re-route us via JFK/PHL/CLT, does EU261 apply if the new stopover re-route gets us into Miami less than 4 hours after the direct flight we are booked on? Note, all the re-routes with stopover generally would get us into Miami 3-3.5 hours late when compared to the direct flight we have booked.

Yes, Article 4.1 says the airline should ask for volunteers. Generally AA does this, this is very much part of their way of life, so if you check in later on then this may have been resolved already. If you check in early it is possible they will give you some sort of tentative offer via RDU or CLT. Having said that, generally IDB happens a lot less than people fear.

For the second point, it depends on precise timings, but IDB always gets some compensation, but it can be cut in half if they get you to MIA less than 4 hours late, so 300€ instead of 600€. If you volunteer, then they may (for example) offer a higher dollar amount but as a travel voucher.

There is an EC261 thread in the AA forum, it will give you more AA specific advice than I can give, and outcomes too (though for some reason relatively few examples of the outcomes).

It looks like economy class is sold out, but that doesn't mean AA have oversold it. There are some seats in business and first class. Chances are if they are in an oversell situation in economy, it will resolve itself by elites requesting upgrades. Otherwise, AA will likely comp upgrade elites to resolve the issue.

Overall I would say the chances of you being IDB are close to none.

While the main cabin is booked slightly over capacity, the flight as a whole is not overbooked. Once a few passengers are upgraded, a few seats will open up in Y.

Hopefully the mods will move this to the AA forum as there is useful AA-specific information there which will assist OP.

1. AA's algorithm is quite solid. It is unlikely that it will actually involuntarily deny boarding as it almost always finds volunteers. In this case, it will simply OPUP passengers in order to create space and not have to even seek volunteers.

2. As a US carrier, AA is required to deny boarding in a pre-specified manner. As an elite, it is extraordinarily unlikely that OP will be denied boarding.

3. As a US carrier, OP would have the option of seeking compensation for denied boarding under the US scheme. That would pay 400% of the segment fare up to a maximum of US$1,350 if AA gets him onto flights scheduled to arrive at his destination within 2 hours of the original. That might be a better route to go.

4. The delay is a matter of calculating scheduled arrival time at MIA against actual arrival. At 3 hours, it is EUR 300 and at 4 hours it is EUR 600. That claim must, of course, be made under EC 261/2004.

To be clear, this is all an interesting hypothetical as it is more than likely that AA will either not deny anyone boarding or will find a volunteer (who will accept a nice tidy voucher for a good deal more than the involuntary cash amount).

The UK is into the autumn school break season now which is probably leading to heavily booked cabins down the back and a little more wriggle room up front. This resulted in a welcome opup from premium economy to business for me and partner a week or so ago on LHR-JFK. They also were calling up to the gate podium a relatively large number of pax who didn't yet have seat assignments to get them assigned after the computer had rolled forward enough other people. Probably best for OP not to worry too much at this stage.

To put this in perspective, during a random quarter (2018-Q1), AA reported 363 IDB on 34.2 Million passenger boardings. Worry more about being struck by lightening enroute the airport than being IDB on a US carrier.

Revenue Management ...

As far as an individual situation goes - someone driving to the airport on a sunny morning, booked on a flight that is oversold has a much higher chance of being denied boarding than being struck by lightning

Out of curiosity, what was the exact error message you got when you attempted OLCI. Based on your earlier post I was wondering if perhaps you are hoping for denied boarding?

There's probably an algorithm that at some point seats go to Airport Control. I would assume a certain number of seats need to be reserved for parent with a small child(ren) and disabled paxs. It's a very, very small chance the OP would be IDB. His best bet is to arrive early as if there is an IDB it's usually targeted at the last paxs to check in.

From the OPs lone post "We've got a basic economy seating and I/we now have no status. We will be prime candidates to be bumped."

So the Op was correct being on a Lite Fare and no status they would indeed be at the top for an IDB, but it probably wont come to that. also Also depending on what the fare that was paid for the LHR-MIA flight, AA might find its better to pay out a little ca$h then a ton of AA money, ifindded an IDB was needed

Lastly I wonder if the UK has any plans to write up its own EU261 rules once they leave the EU?

It’s already part of UK domestic legislation, this will remain in effect as is. (Unless repealed post-brexit.)

The flight in question left with a handful of empty seats; no one was denied boarding.

DOT disagrees

In the list under: "Bumped passengers are NOT eligible for compensation in the following situations:"
"Flights Departing a Foreign Location - International flights to the United States. However, some airlines on these routes may provide compensation voluntarily. Also, the European Commission has a rule on bumping passengers from flights that apply to passengers departing from a European Union member state"
https://www.transportation.gov/indiv...ping-oversales

This differs from EU261 which applies in both directions to EU airlines and flights from the EU on non-EU airlines.
The US law for IDB applies only to flights originating in the US, and makes no distinction between US and foreign based airlines