Hurricane Dorian- Labor Day 2019

Old Aug 28, 19, 9:14 am
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Hurricane Dorian- Labor Day 2019

I know alot of us have travel plans this labor day weekend. The newest track has it making landfall in central Florida early Monday morning. I have a connecting flight in ATL that afternoon. When can we expect travel waivers? I'm flying to Barcelona for a bachelor party, so my options are limited if I'm in ATL. Hopefully it will fizzle out and weaken, as a large portion of my income are rental properties in Orlando and I dont want to deal with this while overseas.

https://www.npr.org/2019/08/28/75498...-forecast-says

Last edited by bsagator; Aug 28, 19 at 9:21 am
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Old Aug 28, 19, 9:21 am
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Are you worried about delays/issues at ATL or MCO? I highly doubt you'll have issues flying out of ATL Monday afternoon. There's still plenty of time for the storm to develop, so DL probably won't issue any waivers until the storm path is much more certain.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 9:24 am
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Originally Posted by eneq View Post
Are you worried about delays/issues at ATL or MCO? I highly doubt you'll have issues flying out of ATL Monday afternoon. It still super early, but most of the tracks have it way clear of ATL after landfall.
I'm connecting from LAX. If Dorian is in central Florida Monday afternoon, tropical storm force winds may be in ATL by then.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 9:34 am
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Unless the track shifts even further north, ATL will barely have a breeze.

The storm is currently still small and compacted meaning the area of reach is small and ATL sits in NW Georgia. A small compacted Cat 2 (assuming it reaches that status) isn't going to do much unless your close to the center.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 9:43 am
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Originally Posted by Yellowjj View Post
Unless the track shifts even further north, ATL will barely have a breeze.

The storm is currently still small and compacted meaning the area of reach is small and ATL sits in NW Georgia. A small compacted Cat 2 (assuming it reaches that status) isn't going to do much unless your close to the center.
As someone who spent the first 35 years of their life in Florida, I know these storms can vary wildly with a slight wiggle here and there. Dorian is currently moving at 13 mph, and the track has a landfall around central Florida around 8am Monday. My flight leaves from ATL at 6pm, and if the speed stays constant, Dorian could be over southern Georgia by then, and unless it stays compact, this will cause a nightmare at ATL the evening of labor day. It's something to watch very closely.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 10:13 am
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Originally Posted by bsagator View Post
As someone who spent the first 35 years of their life in Florida, I know these storms can vary wildly with a slight wiggle here and there. Dorian is currently moving at 13 mph, and the track has a landfall around central Florida around 8am Monday. My flight leaves from ATL at 6pm, and if the speed stays constant, Dorian could be over southern Georgia by then, and unless it stays compact, this will cause a nightmare at ATL the evening of labor day. It's something to watch very closely.
Indeed something to watch closely. Based on the current cone and trajectory, it looks like the Panhandle/Tallahassee and Alabama will get the brunt of the eye. I think DL will issue a waiver but depending how strong the storm is; they may still be able to operate. With ATL being 200+ miles from Tallahassee, I doubt wind will be too much of a problem; there was a CAT 4 that was slightly closer a few years ago from me and we felt no effects. This is of course assuming Dorian doesn't shift or grow bigger in circumference.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 10:25 am
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Originally Posted by Yellowjj View Post
Indeed something to watch closely. Based on the current cone and trajectory, it looks like the Panhandle/Tallahassee and Alabama will get the brunt of the eye. I think DL will issue a waiver but depending how strong the storm is; they may still be able to operate. With ATL being 200+ miles from Tallahassee, I doubt wind will be too much of a problem; there was a CAT 4 that was slightly closer a few years ago from me and we felt no effects. This is of course assuming Dorian doesn't shift or grow bigger in circumference.
Right now I'm more worried about my parents in the Lake Nona area of Orlando and my tenants than I am of my trip being impacted as the new forecast has it hitting central Florida as a category 3 storm.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 10:25 am
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DL is typically very slow to issue waivers for ATL (unlike NYC) and will only likely do so if absolutely necessary.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 10:39 am
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Originally Posted by Yellowjj View Post
Unless the track shifts even further north, ATL will barely have a breeze.

The storm is currently still small and compacted meaning the area of reach is small and ATL sits in NW Georgia. A small compacted Cat 2 (assuming it reaches that status) isn't going to do much unless your close to the center.
There are indications that the storm will grow in size as it nears the Southeast coast (higher environmental relative humidity is typically associated with bigger tropical systems), and it is now forecast to become a Cat 3. However, the track is still highly uncertain, and I doubt Delta will issue anything soon for ATL. Maybe JAX/DAB...
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Old Aug 28, 19, 10:44 am
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Ehh. Even with Irma, the airport didn't have many issues. If they issue a waiver then you can "panic". You'll be departing and flying in the opposite direction of the storm. It's all hype at this point and subject to drastic changes.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 10:53 am
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Originally Posted by bsagator View Post
Right now I'm more worried about my parents in the Lake Nona area of Orlando and my tenants than I am of my trip being impacted as the new forecast has it hitting central Florida as a category 3 storm.
Understandable. Are they planning on staying through it?
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Old Aug 28, 19, 12:21 pm
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Originally Posted by Yellowjj View Post
Understandable. Are they planning on staying through it?
Obviously itís still too early too understand what the real impact of the storm is going to be, but the Lake Nona area of Orlando is a fairly new area with lots of new home construction and not too many large trees (unless they live in Northlake Park area) so I think they should be pretty safe there.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 12:41 pm
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Originally Posted by Yellowjj View Post
Understandable. Are they planning on staying through it?
Lake Nona as another poster said is fairly new and not a lot of trees around, my Uncle and Aunt are in Bear Gulley (NE Orlando really Seminole County) and there are far more trees there, but it is hard to say exactly what if any effect they may or may not feel.

During Irma they lost power for around 30 hours or so, but Duke was able to restore the power quickly.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 2:14 pm
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I'm supposed to be flying out of MLB on Sunday and have been on the phone all day trying to find other options. Everything was booked prior to this week because of the holiday so it's been a pain. I'm trying for an MCO departure tomorrow but unfortunately also have a flight back to MLB on Tuesday that may be impacted as well.
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Old Aug 28, 19, 3:00 pm
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At this point, the track has already shifted significantly due to interaction with the windward islands and the storm is far north and east of the original forecast track. The impact of land interaction with Puerto Rico is still a huge, huge question mark. The location and intensity of the high-level steering flows over the Atlantic are also disagreed upon by the different global forecasting models. All along, forecasters have been saying that with this particular storm, any forecast past 48 hours has a very, very low confidence.

tldr; check back for tracks/impacts on Friday, as they'll be far more accurate. It's tough to know right now.
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