gooselee

I'm keeping an eye on this for my flight ex-ATL Tuesday afternoon. Well after landfall, of course, but even if the storm dies down, a little wiggle to the north and ATL is under heavy thunderstorms for much of Tuesday.

bsagator

They live in Laureatte Park. Not worried about trees, but they live on a brand new street where there are a dozen homes under construction, so loose debris would be a bigger worry.

Hurricane Irma on 9/11/17 didnt even make landfall close to Central Florida, and I still spent a couple of long days cleaning up debris.

bsagator

5pm update has Florida in 98% of cone. I don't think ATL will be affected anymore. Looks like it will be a Florida storm until it moves into the gulf. The problem with waiting until Friday is that there will be the usual panic and everyone rushing to the stores and flights out prior to the storm will be sold out quickly. Then all the roadways north will be jammed up. I always preferred to be better safe than sorry.

RumPatrol

I am flying out of FLL through ATL tomorrow and supposed to come back through ATL to FLL Sunday night. My hopes are not particularly high that the return is going to work. If the earliest possible arrival time checks out, it may pass by then but more likely, it'll be somewhere between ATL and FLL right when I'm supposed to be flying.

Still early though, the cone is literally the entire length of Florida and much of the GA coast and it has a whole lot of ocean it needs to pass through between now and then. Looking at the pressure east of it though isn't really encouraging. It looks like it wants to push Dorian into a hard left straight through the middle of FL.

glboisvert

I'm flying ATL-SXM on Friday, and while Dorian won't be in either of those places I suspect it'll be inconveniently located over the flight route. Having not flown to the Caribbean in hurricane season before, is that likely to be a problem?

MSPeconomist

FlyerWx

The airline typically files a different flight route in these situations. It may result in a slightly longer travel time, but you should be fine.

bsagator

The governor of Florida has declared a state or emergency. I would assume weather waivers might go out tomorrow if track holds? Delta should be proactive as it's a holiday weekend.


https://www.orlandosentinel.com/weat...dma-story.html

[Quote]

RumPatrol

I've done ATL-SXM a couple times during hurricane season, with hurricanes in various stages of development in the area, without trouble. The flight path for that route typically hugs the east coast of Florida until about Orlando and then flights direct to SXM. Looking at the route flown yesterday and today, they did the same thing but took a quick detour around the front side of the hurricane.

On Friday, the hurricane will probably be right in the middle of that second leg directly between Orlando and SXM, so I wouldn't be surprised if they just flew the first leg a bit farther down the coast to the MIA area and then flew direct to SXM "under" the storm. Doubt it'll cause you any problems, especially since the ATL-SXM flight today and yesterday both operated on-time with the storm very close to SXM. If anything, you may add 20 minutes of flight time if they need to go especially far south before making the turn SE to SXM.

A lot can change between now and then of course, but you should be fine.

ATOBTTR

apodo77

bsagator

11pm update has it slowing down. Now won't be over central Florida until 8pm Monday. Previous track had it at 2pm. This puts ATL in the clear for the busy Monday.

MSPeconomist

CPMaverick

This prediction basically says there is a 0% chance (or at least <5% chance) of tropical winds at ATL from now until the morning of Sept 2nd. I don't see how this was remotely alarming. Something to keep an eye on, but no point really until much closer in.

bsagator

Yes, I can read the map. My flight leaves 10 hours after that prediction ended. Storms change speed and direction, and they can grow extremely large. The storm has slowed down by about 6 hours from the previous prediction, and as you can see ATL is now in the probability of TS force winds, even with the significant slow down from my previous post. I guess someone living in Melbourne might not understand the destructive force of such storms, and how wildly they can vary.