enviroian

Yes routes do predict upgrade percentages I agree but I've tried to fly at all different hours at different days of the week across the board and still rarely get upgraded. Just yesterday mid week mid afternoon flight to ATL I was 18 (!) on the upgrade list for a 321S.

GTITAN

Yeah it is not easy out of the Fortress Hubs of CLT and DFW for certain. I couldn't get upgraded on a TPA-CLT midweek flight. Now, having said that, a few Saturdays ago, my wife and I were upgraded at T-100 to LGA. Agree though generally. Once upon a time EP on AA or CP on US was almost a sure bet. Now, not quite as much, but I suppose that's the way of things.

Safe Travels

QueenOfCoach

A tangential question: What good are all these miles if they cannot be used for a flight I want to take?

I have to endure that stupid credit card pitch on almost every flight, touting those "thousands" of bonus miles so I can start planning my "dream trip".

Yeah, right. Good luck with that. My "dream trip" has 0 availability for award or upgrade travel.

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

You're find to use those golden miles on a Milesaver award convoluted routings with connections at the bare MCT or hours on end.

metallo

Interesting that you mention LAX-STL, because that's a route I take relatively frequently, and whether it's possible to upgrade (as EXP) has become dependent on departure time and plane type. When the A319 is on the route, forget about upgrades. I've been trying to get paid 'I' or 'D' class in advance, for an average of about ~$500-600 one way with reasonable advance purchase and more like $800-$1000 when bought last-minute. When it's a 738, particularly at off-peak times (like the new post-8pm LAX-STL departure), this is basically an automatic T-100 upgrade, even on coach award tickets.

I agree with you about keeping expectations in check. I know that sometimes I'll have to pay to sit up front, even as EXP. It's the same for CKs. You have to know your routes/days/times. Why sweat out an upgrade when there's basically no chance? It's almost amusing to see how miffed some of the traditionalists are when their upgrades don't clear. It's not 2008 -- on a 738 for example, 14 of the 16 J seats won't go to last-minute upgraders - maybe 1 or 2 will on decently competitive routes, and on elite-heavy routes on a Monday/Thursday, forget about it. There'll be some rare gate upgrades when there are misconnects or if Y is oversold and there are open F seats, but you should never count on it, particularly if you aren't in tune with which routes/times give you the best shot.

remedy

My informal poll in the occasion that I am in first would support this. In fact, I am even buying first if traveling along and the fare diffference is not too great, or I have to make a last minute booking at which time the fare difference is minimal.

Would also add that the aircraft used is a factor. I fly a lot on A 319's where upgrades are almost impossible with only 8 FC seats. Even RJ's have more!

Antarius

Partner awards in J and F and last minute Y flights. When CLT - LGA is 750 USD one way, 12500 miles is a steal.

Otherwise, yes, saver J on AA is non existent.

WiscAZ

I mentioned this upthread and forgot to mention that at least on the A 319 the exit row / MCE give you quite a bit of room. If I'm luck enough to snag an exit row aisle without someone in the middle I'd almost prefer that to sitting in F. I get this quite often on PHX to MKE and back where it isn't always a full load.

E55

I've politely declined "come on down" style upgrades in this scenario (but I've also accepted).

Gino Troian

Domestic F fares are quite cheap if you purchase in advance, and from what I was told a few months ago by an AA rep, $-spend has increased across the board.

USFlyerUS

Same here. If the flight is over 2.5 hours, I almost always just buy the advanced purchase fare in First. It's just not worth betting on an upgrade when I don't fly enough to have EQDs that would put me at the very top. It also gives one the freedom to fly other carriers without having to worry about status.

abrown83

AANYC1981

Definitely have noticed this after Q1 of this year (Q1 being slower overall in travel so less competition)......doesn't seem to be any diaspora of CK/EXP to other airlines yet in NYC.

LGA-ORD is my most frequent route and is very CK heavy. Plus there seems to be a lot of movement between the hourly shuttles with people trying to get home earlier. I'm totally fine with MCE on these flights too.....PDB in the AC, snack box with the beef jerky, double bloody mary and a bag of pretzels and you're landing already

Fine Art Landscape Photographer

Thanks for your comments.

On the other side of the spectrum I was in RAP last week and there was 0 people on the upgrade list on the screen in the airport

Antarius

I'm surprised as I've never ever missed an upgrade I'm or out of CLT. And this year I've been thru or originating or terminating at least 50 times. I even cleared LAX-CLT last week somehow despite it being J0 when I booked it.

DFW-SFO/SJC are the ones I have missed a couple times.