An earlier flight was delayed; switch or stick with original?
 

II's an easy process. Just look in your crystal ball and see which option turns out better and take that. If you've left the crystal ball at home, it's a toss up and no way to predict.

I agree with Often1 :)

What I've learned in these situations is make the best decision with the information you have, and don't look back.

I was about to switch to an earlier (mechanically delayed) flight last month, but decided against it due to a gut feeling. That flight ended up leaving later than my original one, so it all worked out.

Had this dilemma a number of times. Some of the factors I consider...

• Am I in F on the original flight?
• What kind of seat can I get on the earlier flight? Can I get into F? How long is the flight? (The shorter the flight the more willing I am to take a bad seat.)
• Why is the earlier flight delayed? Weather at its origin that will not affect the remainder of the trip? ATC delay at the destination that may end up affecting your flight too? Mechanical delay? Check OIS and the flight status notes on ExpertFlyer. (And never switch to a flight with a mechanical delay unless the problem has just been cleared and they are about to close the door.)
• Probability that my original flight will leave on time? Is it at the gate or in the air with an ETA that will allow an adequate turn time? (AA is notorious for posting flights as on-time when it's pretty obvious they won't be.)
• Will I be able to get on the earlier flight early enough to stow a bag? (I got onto an earlier DFW-AUS flight only to be told at boarding that the bins were full and I'd have to check my bag, which added delays at the other end that almost fully negated my time savings.)

Among the unknown variables is if the crew of the first (delayed) flight is at risk of timing-out.

I've benefited from this in the past when the earlier flight was so delayed that AA offered miles as a goodwill gesture to everyone on the flight, even those of us who used it to arrive home earlier than originally scheduled.

My general gut feeling tells me that since AA couldn't possibly lie more about delay timeframes, especially when it comes to MX, I'll only get on the earlier flight if it's currently (or truly about to start) boarding.

Unfortunately, this isn't like the Monty Hall problem where switching is always the right choice.

Always pick the one that isn't the 737-MAX, even if it's sure to be cancelled.

here's how it ended up: I switched from original (11:20am) to the earlier flight (9:35am) flight since neither had departed. Gate agent at earlier flight said "you should switch; this one will definitely go earlier than the 11:20." So I switched. At about 11:30, the original starts boarding; the earlier says "we'll get an update in a half hour." Walked over to original, which is now almost fully boarded. Ask the GA if I can get on; he says my original seats are gone but they have one left. GA says "you shold definitely take it; we've got a plane and a crew and we're boarding." But I'm with my wife and there is only one seat. Original pulls away from gate. Back to earlier gate, where they make an announcement that their departure time is now after 2pm. Damn! Mrs. W gives me the "you think you're so smart" look. Back to the AC to wait it out.
After an hour or so, people start streaming into the AC from the original (11:20) flight. They had pulled back to the gate and deplaned. That flight was straight cancelled. I've got confirmed seats on the earlier flight, which eventually departed at about 3:15.
Bottom line: switching proved to be the right move; otherwise I wouldn't have gotten home til next day. However, it was just random luck and for a while looked like the wrong move.
Oh, and btw, I do actually have a crystal ball, but neglected to bring it on this trip.,

I'm glad it worked out well in the end.

You should thank your wife for being with you so you didn't take the canceled flight :D

I dont switch...I have my TA or the EXP desk book it as 'back up'. If I get onto the earlier flight, the other coupon just goes away.

I supoose I might get onto a plane that THEN is delayed...