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How will AA respond to southwest entering Hawaii

How will AA respond to southwest entering Hawaii

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Old Feb 12, 19, 2:04 pm
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How will AA respond to southwest entering Hawaii

Seems like the world expects a fare war for up coming no flights to Hawaii, southwest usually opens new markets with insane prices. Will AA actually compete or expect us to pay full price and like it?

id rather fly AA but money talks and would take southwest if I save big
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Old Feb 12, 19, 2:33 pm
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Originally Posted by Nuhusky View Post
Seems like the world expects a fare war for up coming no flights to Hawaii, southwest usually opens new markets with insane prices. Will AA actually compete or expect us to pay full price and like it?

id rather fly AA but money talks and would take southwest if I save big
I suspect that the R models revenue management has in place will open up the O bucket on many flights from LAX to HNL. The increase in supply going to Hawaii will not likely result in increased demand.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 2:45 pm
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Originally Posted by Nuhusky View Post
Seems like the world expects a fare war for up coming no flights to Hawaii, southwest usually opens new markets with insane prices. Will AA actually compete or expect us to pay full price and like it?

id rather fly AA but money talks and would take southwest if I save big
Sure if you are an AA elite. AA is going to charge for bags (which many flyers will want to check given what they take along). WN will have at least comparable if not better leg room compared to AA Y-. AA will provide a meal out of DFW but that's about it. The days of AA being some supreme airline compared to WN is well over. If prices are comparable there's not much difference and depending on the pax more upside to WN.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 3:48 pm
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Originally Posted by Nuhusky View Post
Seems like the world expects a fare war for up coming no flights to Hawaii, southwest usually opens new markets with insane prices. Will AA actually compete or expect us to pay full price and like it?

id rather fly AA but money talks and would take southwest if I save big
There are routinely fares from the Bay Area to Hawaii r/t for under $400. Is that 'full price' in your mind? How much of a discount from AA pricing do you need to fly Southwest?
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Old Feb 12, 19, 3:57 pm
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Looking at this as an O&D issue isn't the answer.

AA already has the advantage of inbound connections from Europe on its own metal as well as BA. That is a good chunk of business for which WN can't even compete. Add to that the fact that legacy standard fares for West Coast - Hawaii, when booked outside the AP requirements are pretty low already, I am struggling to see how WN breaks into the market other than by offering promotional cheap fares to start. But, those can't hold.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 3:58 pm
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Few of the serious airline prognosticators expect fare wars if/when WN FINALLY enters the Hawaiian market, claiming total demand is limited primarily by available hotel rooms.

AA seems to have been reasonably successful maintaining relatively high fares out of LAX (haven't paid much attention elsewhere), even with AS adding service out of secondary west coast gateways (latter currently has the most number of flights from the mainland). In fact, AA appears to have been successful sending saaver award redemption (Y and B) to AS metal, preserving inventory for higher revenue and aanytime award passengers.

This would suggest that for at least West Coast O&D service, WN will be fighting AS and HA for market share, former appears to have done an effective job creating loyalty with credit cards (companion pass, free luggage, etc.). Will be interesting to see if Gary Kelly is willing to attempt to buy connecting market share from AA, DL, UA - I have my doubts.

There appears to be huge pent up demand from WN loyalists to burn RR points, use companion passes to Hawaii. This will wane at some point, then be interesting to see if open seating (for families), lack of hot meal service, first and premium class will make the service sustainable on the 5 - 6 hours over the pond - I have my doubts.

In my opinion, Kelly would be wise to focus on LAS, where gambling vacation packages are quite popular with Hawaiians. If I am not mistaken, HA would be their only competition, WN already has a substantial network of connecting flights east. I find it interesting that LAS is conspicuously missing from WN's initial service teases.

In other words, to answer the OP's question: with a yawn.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 4:00 pm
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I’m east coast and for me to get to Hawaii on a non discount day is in the $800 range. If southwest gets my round trip total cost down to $400 that’s a pretty big savings for me
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Old Feb 12, 19, 4:02 pm
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Originally Posted by Nuhusky View Post
Iím east coast and for me to get to Hawaii on a non discount day is in the $800 range. If southwest gets my round trip total cost down to $400 thatís a pretty big savings for me
Good luck with that.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 4:40 pm
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Originally Posted by Nuhusky View Post
I’m east coast and for me to get to Hawaii on a non discount day is in the $800 range. If southwest gets my round trip total cost down to $400 that’s a pretty big savings for me
And I want a pony.

I'm guessing you haven't recently priced Southwest against other carriers have you. Sure, they run intra-California $39-59 each way sales, but their pricing on other routes is comparable or more than the big 3 carriers.

You know what I want from Southwest flying to Hawaii? Daytime return flights. Redeye into LAX or PHX on AA is not my idea of a good time.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 4:51 pm
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Originally Posted by diver858 View Post
Few of the serious airline prognosticators expect fare wars if/when WN FINALLY enters the Hawaiian market, claiming total demand is limited primarily by available hotel rooms.
Weíre definitely past the ďifĒ stage and youíre wrong (as are other some of the other posters) about the expectations about fares; there will most definitely be a fare war.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 5:12 pm
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Originally Posted by diver858 View Post
Few of the serious airline prognosticators expect fare wars if/when WN FINALLY enters the Hawaiian market, claiming total demand is limited primarily by available hotel rooms.
This analysis makes no sense. If demand is constant and supply increases, the inevitable result is that fares will decrease.

Edited to add: the likely outcome is that supply won't increase that much because AA will retreat in the face of competition outside their captive hubs just like they always do.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 5:29 pm
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Originally Posted by skunker View Post
And I want a pony.

I'm guessing you haven't recently priced Southwest against other carriers have you. Sure, they run intra-California $39-59 each way sales, but their pricing on other routes is comparable or more than the big 3 carriers.

You know what I want from Southwest flying to Hawaii? Daytime return flights. Redeye into LAX or PHX on AA is not my idea of a good time.
i donít see why that doesnít become feasible. Redeem a low number of miles to lax with saver rewards and then southwest provides discounts to the island. Perhaps you can get a pony after All?

aa mile redemption to Hawaii is just stupid now, I can bring myself to cough up 150,000 miles per person.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 5:35 pm
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Originally Posted by Nuhusky View Post


i donít see why that doesnít become feasible. Redeem a low number of miles to lax with saver rewards and then southwest provides discounts to the island. Perhaps you can get a pony after All?

aa mile redemption to Hawaii is just stupid now, I can bring myself to cough up 150,000 miles per person.
My home airport is SAN, which is one of the announced airports Southwest will be flying from. AS and HA already have non-stops and flights are already under $400 so I have no reason to go to LAX to catch a Southwest flight.

Those wanting $400 flights from the east coast on the other hand...
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Old Feb 12, 19, 5:35 pm
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Originally Posted by diver858 View Post
Few of the serious airline prognosticators expect fare wars if/when WN FINALLY enters the Hawaiian market, claiming total demand is limited primarily by available hotel rooms.
Is that a typo? If demand really is limited by hotel rooms, then more seats in the air means lower fares.

Iím surprised anyone thinks there fares wonít be depressed this year, at least at first.
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Old Feb 12, 19, 5:57 pm
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Originally Posted by rrgg View Post
Is that a typo? If demand really is limited by hotel rooms, then more seats in the air means lower fares.

Iím surprised anyone thinks there fares wonít be depressed this year, at least at first.
Fares have already been really cheap from the west coast. AS has $300 BE fares from SAN.
HA and AA have ~$500 flights from JFK to KOA
Flights from BWI to LIH are $435 on AA (BE fare).

How much lower are people looking for?
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