How will AA respond to southwest entering Hawaii
Feb 12, 2019, 2:04 pm
#1
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Join Date: Nov 2017
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How will AA respond to southwest entering Hawaii
Seems like the world expects a fare war for up coming no flights to Hawaii, southwest usually opens new markets with insane prices. Will AA actually compete or expect us to pay full price and like it?
id rather fly AA but money talks and would take southwest if I save big
id rather fly AA but money talks and would take southwest if I save big
Feb 12, 2019, 2:33 pm
#2
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: New York City + Vail, CO
Programs: American Airlines Executive Platinum, Marriott Bonvoy Ambassador Elite
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Seems like the world expects a fare war for up coming no flights to Hawaii, southwest usually opens new markets with insane prices. Will AA actually compete or expect us to pay full price and like it?
id rather fly AA but money talks and would take southwest if I save big
id rather fly AA but money talks and would take southwest if I save big
Feb 12, 2019, 2:45 pm
#3
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Seems like the world expects a fare war for up coming no flights to Hawaii, southwest usually opens new markets with insane prices. Will AA actually compete or expect us to pay full price and like it?
id rather fly AA but money talks and would take southwest if I save big
id rather fly AA but money talks and would take southwest if I save big
Feb 12, 2019, 3:48 pm
#4
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Seems like the world expects a fare war for up coming no flights to Hawaii, southwest usually opens new markets with insane prices. Will AA actually compete or expect us to pay full price and like it?
id rather fly AA but money talks and would take southwest if I save big
id rather fly AA but money talks and would take southwest if I save big
Feb 12, 2019, 3:57 pm
#5
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Looking at this as an O&D issue isn't the answer.
AA already has the advantage of inbound connections from Europe on its own metal as well as BA. That is a good chunk of business for which WN can't even compete. Add to that the fact that legacy standard fares for West Coast - Hawaii, when booked outside the AP requirements are pretty low already, I am struggling to see how WN breaks into the market other than by offering promotional cheap fares to start. But, those can't hold.
AA already has the advantage of inbound connections from Europe on its own metal as well as BA. That is a good chunk of business for which WN can't even compete. Add to that the fact that legacy standard fares for West Coast - Hawaii, when booked outside the AP requirements are pretty low already, I am struggling to see how WN breaks into the market other than by offering promotional cheap fares to start. But, those can't hold.
Feb 12, 2019, 3:58 pm
#6
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: San Diego, Ca
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Few of the serious airline prognosticators expect fare wars if/when WN FINALLY enters the Hawaiian market, claiming total demand is limited primarily by available hotel rooms.
AA seems to have been reasonably successful maintaining relatively high fares out of LAX (haven't paid much attention elsewhere), even with AS adding service out of secondary west coast gateways (latter currently has the most number of flights from the mainland). In fact, AA appears to have been successful sending saaver award redemption (Y and B) to AS metal, preserving inventory for higher revenue and aanytime award passengers.
This would suggest that for at least West Coast O&D service, WN will be fighting AS and HA for market share, former appears to have done an effective job creating loyalty with credit cards (companion pass, free luggage, etc.). Will be interesting to see if Gary Kelly is willing to attempt to buy connecting market share from AA, DL, UA - I have my doubts.
There appears to be huge pent up demand from WN loyalists to burn RR points, use companion passes to Hawaii. This will wane at some point, then be interesting to see if open seating (for families), lack of hot meal service, first and premium class will make the service sustainable on the 5 - 6 hours over the pond - I have my doubts.
In my opinion, Kelly would be wise to focus on LAS, where gambling vacation packages are quite popular with Hawaiians. If I am not mistaken, HA would be their only competition, WN already has a substantial network of connecting flights east. I find it interesting that LAS is conspicuously missing from WN's initial service teases.
In other words, to answer the OP's question: with a yawn.
AA seems to have been reasonably successful maintaining relatively high fares out of LAX (haven't paid much attention elsewhere), even with AS adding service out of secondary west coast gateways (latter currently has the most number of flights from the mainland). In fact, AA appears to have been successful sending saaver award redemption (Y and B) to AS metal, preserving inventory for higher revenue and aanytime award passengers.
This would suggest that for at least West Coast O&D service, WN will be fighting AS and HA for market share, former appears to have done an effective job creating loyalty with credit cards (companion pass, free luggage, etc.). Will be interesting to see if Gary Kelly is willing to attempt to buy connecting market share from AA, DL, UA - I have my doubts.
There appears to be huge pent up demand from WN loyalists to burn RR points, use companion passes to Hawaii. This will wane at some point, then be interesting to see if open seating (for families), lack of hot meal service, first and premium class will make the service sustainable on the 5 - 6 hours over the pond - I have my doubts.
In my opinion, Kelly would be wise to focus on LAS, where gambling vacation packages are quite popular with Hawaiians. If I am not mistaken, HA would be their only competition, WN already has a substantial network of connecting flights east. I find it interesting that LAS is conspicuously missing from WN's initial service teases.
In other words, to answer the OP's question: with a yawn.
Feb 12, 2019, 4:02 pm
#8
Join Date: Oct 2010
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Feb 12, 2019, 4:40 pm
#9
Join Date: May 2006
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I'm guessing you haven't recently priced Southwest against other carriers have you. Sure, they run intra-California $39-59 each way sales, but their pricing on other routes is comparable or more than the big 3 carriers.
You know what I want from Southwest flying to Hawaii? Daytime return flights. Redeye into LAX or PHX on AA is not my idea of a good time.
Feb 12, 2019, 4:51 pm
#10
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We’re definitely past the “if” stage and you’re wrong (as are other some of the other posters) about the expectations about fares; there will most definitely be a fare war.
Feb 12, 2019, 5:12 pm
#11
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: New York, NY
Posts: 3,698
Edited to add: the likely outcome is that supply won't increase that much because AA will retreat in the face of competition outside their captive hubs just like they always do.
Feb 12, 2019, 5:29 pm
#12
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And I want a pony.
I'm guessing you haven't recently priced Southwest against other carriers have you. Sure, they run intra-California $39-59 each way sales, but their pricing on other routes is comparable or more than the big 3 carriers.
You know what I want from Southwest flying to Hawaii? Daytime return flights. Redeye into LAX or PHX on AA is not my idea of a good time.
I'm guessing you haven't recently priced Southwest against other carriers have you. Sure, they run intra-California $39-59 each way sales, but their pricing on other routes is comparable or more than the big 3 carriers.
You know what I want from Southwest flying to Hawaii? Daytime return flights. Redeye into LAX or PHX on AA is not my idea of a good time.
aa mile redemption to Hawaii is just stupid now, I can bring myself to cough up 150,000 miles per person.
Feb 12, 2019, 5:35 pm
#13
Join Date: May 2006
Location: SAN
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Posts: 6,421
i don’t see why that doesn’t become feasible. Redeem a low number of miles to lax with saver rewards and then southwest provides discounts to the island. Perhaps you can get a pony after All?
aa mile redemption to Hawaii is just stupid now, I can bring myself to cough up 150,000 miles per person.
Those wanting $400 flights from the east coast on the other hand...
Feb 12, 2019, 5:35 pm
#14
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 7,901
I’m surprised anyone thinks there fares won’t be depressed this year, at least at first.
Feb 12, 2019, 5:57 pm
#15
Join Date: May 2006
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HA and AA have ~$500 flights from JFK to KOA
Flights from BWI to LIH are $435 on AA (BE fare).
How much lower are people looking for?