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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

Old Jul 10, 2019, 1:01 pm
  #721  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 10
Hello! My wife and I are flying on flight 169, LAX to NRT on O fare class, Oct 15th. I no longer have status with AA but was hoping to do a miles + copay award upgrade to business. Is the likelihood of this clearing close to zero? I dont have enough AA miles, so if theres no realistic chance Id rather not deal with converting Marriott points. Thank you for any advice.
ctopher2391 is offline  
Old Jul 10, 2019, 1:35 pm
  #722  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,361
Originally Posted by ctopher2391
Hello! My wife and I are flying on flight 169, LAX to NRT on O fare class, Oct 15th. I no longer have status with AA but was hoping to do a miles + copay award upgrade to business. Is the likelihood of this clearing close to zero? I dont have enough AA miles, so if theres no realistic chance Id rather not deal with converting Marriott points. Thank you for any advice.
Oct. 15 is a Tuesday which plays greatly in your favor. I'd say your chances are good, but it's way too soon to be able to say for sure. All the normal paid business travel hasn't even begun to book yet.

You definitely have a "realistic chance," however I'm not sure I would transfer points yet. Even if you had the necessary miles, any upgrade space most likely won't appear till 24-48 hrs. before the flight.
JJeffrey is offline  
Old Jul 10, 2019, 2:04 pm
  #723  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 10
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
Oct. 15 is a Tuesday which plays greatly in your favor. I'd say your chances are good, but it's way too soon to be able to say for sure. All the normal paid business travel hasn't even begun to book yet.

You definitely have a "realistic chance," however I'm not sure I would transfer points yet. Even if you had the necessary miles, any upgrade space most likely won't appear till 24-48 hrs. before the flight.
Thank you! When would you recommend I check back here with everyone and look at transferring miles? 3 weeks or so prior to flight?
ctopher2391 is offline  
Old Jul 10, 2019, 11:26 pm
  #724  
 
Join Date: May 2015
Location: WAS, SZX, HKG
Programs: AS MVP Gold 75K, CX Green
Posts: 734
Originally Posted by ctopher2391


Thank you! When would you recommend I check back here with everyone and look at transferring miles? 3 weeks or so prior to flight?
By the way if it is still possible for you, maybe you can consider AA27 LAX-HND which is operated by a 77W (with 52J rather than 30J on the 789). Even if it doesnt clear, Haneda is much closer to Tokyo city than Narita anyways.
shd9 is offline  
Old Jul 12, 2019, 6:16 am
  #725  
SCS
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 164
I'm looking at AA 280 ICN-DFW on Fri Sept 27 or Sat Sept 28. Friday is more convenient and a bit cheaper, but I'm wondering how much I'm sacrificing in SWU chances by going on Friday instead of Saturday. Any informed speculation? AA seat map shows 10 out of 30 J seats occupied on both days, but I guess that doesn't mean much this far out. I'm AA Plat (SWU would be a gift from a family member). I figure it will be a long shot either way.
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Old Jul 20, 2019, 12:43 am
  #726  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Posts: 41
Wanted to share my experiences since I get so much great info from this site. Traveling on a government fare from the US, with the intl leg of ORD-LHR. FYI SWUs cannot be used in conjunction with govt fares. I booked back in feb and made a mileage/co-pay upgrade request then. I checked EF daily about two weeks out, and two days prior to departure I was checking hourly and happened to wake up at 3 AM one day; I checked EF and lo and behold AA had released 3 C seats on my outbound. Called EXPLAT line and they got me in.

On my return, two days out J appeared full on EF. I was sad. Then one full day out one seat opened up, but no C space on EF. The night before departure (about T-18) I checked EF and not only was there a fresh C seat, but it was a coveted window seat midcabin on a Dreamliner. I called EXPLAT line and at first she said she couldnt help me. I asked her to check C space again and she found it and snagged me that window seat. Lesson for me is persistence and that EF is truly invaluable!

Whats not clear to me is how these requests are prioritized. I know Im high on the list because of when I made the request (and I have a decent rolling EQD), but did I get the seat because I was proactive and called, or because I was at the top of the list and might have cleared anyway? Both times I called the EXPLAT line I was immediately cleared.

Last edited by Rhinopia; Jul 20, 2019 at 12:50 am Reason: Spelling/clarity
Rhinopia is offline  
Old Jul 20, 2019, 4:35 pm
  #727  
 
Join Date: Jul 2019
Posts: 1
LAX to SYD chances of upgrade with SWU

Hello everyone!

My wife and I are applying SWU to LAX to SYD.
Wed 8/28 returning Wed 9/4.

EXP 20300 rolling EQD.

I do not have expert flyer. It looks like theres only 15 seats in business class available for the flight out and only 3 out of 30 taken on the return flight.

Does anyone have success being upgraded on this particular flight using SWU?

Thanks All.

CJ
rcjackson45 is offline  
Old Jul 20, 2019, 10:14 pm
  #728  
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Programs: Alaska Gold 75K, AA EXP, United 1K
Posts: 472
Originally Posted by SCS
I'm looking at AA 280 ICN-DFW on Fri Sept 27 or Sat Sept 28. Friday is more convenient and a bit cheaper, but I'm wondering how much I'm sacrificing in SWU chances by going on Friday instead of Saturday. Any informed speculation? AA seat map shows 10 out of 30 J seats occupied on both days, but I guess that doesn't mean much this far out. I'm AA Plat (SWU would be a gift from a family member). I figure it will be a long shot either way.
sometimes I check loads and open seats for the same days of the week but in the next week or two to see if theres a pattern on loads.
lightbulbs is offline  
Old Jul 20, 2019, 10:24 pm
  #729  
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Programs: Alaska Gold 75K, AA EXP, United 1K
Posts: 472
Originally Posted by Rhinopia
Wanted to share my experiences since I get so much great info from this site. Traveling on a government fare from the US, with the intl leg of ORD-LHR. FYI SWUs cannot be used in conjunction with govt fares. I booked back in feb and made a mileage/co-pay upgrade request then. I checked EF daily about two weeks out, and two days prior to departure I was checking hourly and happened to wake up at 3 AM one day; I checked EF and lo and behold AA had released 3 C seats on my outbound. Called EXPLAT line and they got me in.

On my return, two days out J appeared full on EF. I was sad. Then one full day out one seat opened up, but no C space on EF. The night before departure (about T-18) I checked EF and not only was there a fresh C seat, but it was a coveted window seat midcabin on a Dreamliner. I called EXPLAT line and at first she said she couldnt help me. I asked her to check C space again and she found it and snagged me that window seat. Lesson for me is persistence and that EF is truly invaluable!

Whats not clear to me is how these requests are prioritized. I know Im high on the list because of when I made the request (and I have a decent rolling EQD), but did I get the seat because I was proactive and called, or because I was at the top of the list and might have cleared anyway? Both times I called the EXPLAT line I was immediately cleared.
You probably snagged the seats because of your timing but you may have been pretty high on the list anyway depending on how much your rolling EQD is. Time of request doesnt really matter practically speaking since it only breaks ties in the event of the exactly the same EQD and fare class.
lightbulbs is offline  
Old Jul 21, 2019, 10:41 pm
  #730  
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 3
Need some help as I have never flown AA. Going to BCN, and I was going to use miles/points on United/Lufthansa. But colleague has offered me a SWU to fly American. I looked on Expert flyer non of the routes have a C upgrade currently. He is Concierge Key flies 1 million + miles a year. My question is if there is no SWU available now, does the priority list (CK, exec platinum, etc, etc) apply to him (the one giving the SWU) or me the one flying (with no status). I am fairly flexible on where to fly out of, I was thinking about ORD or Charlotte, any idea how often these clear for a Monday to Friday Flight in Sept? Thanks in advance for any advice.
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Old Jul 22, 2019, 5:13 am
  #731  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,361
Originally Posted by Mikkey12601
Need some help as I have never flown AA. Going to BCN, and I was going to use miles/points on United/Lufthansa. But colleague has offered me a SWU to fly American. I looked on Expert flyer non of the routes have a C upgrade currently. He is Concierge Key flies 1 million + miles a year. My question is if there is no SWU available now, does the priority list (CK, exec platinum, etc, etc) apply to him (the one giving the SWU) or me the one flying (with no status). I am fairly flexible on where to fly out of, I was thinking about ORD or Charlotte, any idea how often these clear for a Monday to Friday Flight in Sept? Thanks in advance for any advice.
You will be waitlisted according to your status, not the status of the person giving you the SWU.

The good news is that Europe traffic as a whole really tanks in September, so without knowing more I'd say your chances are decent. Generally speaking going over on a Monday should be ok odds, while flying back on a Friday will be a bit tougher.

And these upgrades clear all the time, however AA typically doesn't release space until 24-48 hrs before the flight. Connecting via CLT or ORD will likely not matter, I would just look at ExpertFlyer and pick the routing that's most open in business class.
JJeffrey is offline  
Old Jul 22, 2019, 8:41 am
  #732  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Programs: AA Gold
Posts: 194
Not sure why I'm surprised at this point but just want to vent/get it off my chest haha ...

I had a meeting until late Friday night in PDX so I took AA1986 PDX-DFW on Saturday A.M... I'm PLT, up around 7k rolling EQD at the moment... Hey, maybe I have a shot at an upgrade...

Nope, #7/8 on the list, with only the first clearing. My boss, who was also on the flight is a PltPro, and she was #2/8... She said she has about 13k rolling spend at the moment.

Absurd.
BOSishome is offline  
Old Jul 22, 2019, 8:18 pm
  #733  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Programs: Amex Platinum, Starwood Gold, VX elevate
Posts: 324
I'd like to throw my question out as to experience with 500 mile upgrades for a LAX - JFK flight this upcoming Saturday (July 27). In the past, I've used mileage for upgrades with varying success, though having never flown on a Saturday on this route (at 10:00am), I'm curious of the likelihood of an upgrade clearing. I am Platinum Pro. Thanks!
ZbadhabitZ is offline  
Old Jul 22, 2019, 8:48 pm
  #734  
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Smellington, NZ
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, UA 2P, Marriott LTPP
Posts: 1,453
Originally Posted by BOSishome
Not sure why I'm surprised at this point but just want to vent/get it off my chest haha ...

I had a meeting until late Friday night in PDX so I took AA1986 PDX-DFW on Saturday A.M... I'm PLT, up around 7k rolling EQD at the moment... Hey, maybe I have a shot at an upgrade...

Nope, #7/8 on the list, with only the first clearing. My boss, who was also on the flight is a PltPro, and she was #2/8... She said she has about 13k rolling spend at the moment.

Absurd.
absurd is the following:

EXP with 32k rolling EQD. I have been able to use zero EVIPs this year and have been upgraded exactly twice all year, both times on the coveted SJC-LAX route. And I requalified in April through Jan 2021. To be fair, I did get one upgrade on DFW-SJC but had to decline since I was with a companion and only one seat was available (we were 1 and 2 on the list out of 20+ people). After I complete my next AA trip this week, Ill direct my spend elsewhere for the rest of the year and get status elsewhere since the biggest perk of status has been inaccessible so far.
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bpauker is offline  
Old Jul 22, 2019, 10:16 pm
  #735  
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: SNA
Posts: 928
Originally Posted by BOSishome
Not sure why I'm surprised at this point but just want to vent/get it off my chest haha ...

I had a meeting until late Friday night in PDX so I took AA1986 PDX-DFW on Saturday A.M... I'm PLT, up around 7k rolling EQD at the moment... Hey, maybe I have a shot at an upgrade...

Nope, #7/8 on the list, with only the first clearing. My boss, who was also on the flight is a PltPro, and she was #2/8... She said she has about 13k rolling spend at the moment.

Absurd.
Absurd that you flew in the class of service you paid for?
rumboj likes this.
pmblinn is offline  

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