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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

Old May 28, 2019, 2:18 pm
  #601  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 214
Originally Posted by bscooter26
Thanks, I suppose I figured as much. Anything to look out for regarding inventory as I get closer?
You're specifically looking for C class for an immediate upgrade. If you see C availability pop-up, immediately call AA and ask for them to process the upgrade. However, it's highly likely you will not see any availability at all or you won't see availability until T-36 hours till departure. "I" class is discounted business and will dwindle first as people buy business class tickets. As you see "I" and "D" buckets dwindle down to 0, "J" is full-fare business and represents the number of seats left for sale. For example, if you see J7 at T-36, there's a good chance your upgrade has already processed or you'll see C availability open up. If you see J2 or J3, it's unlikely they will process an upgrade until you're at the gate. If you see J0, it means they are not selling any business class tickets for a variety of reasons - coach is oversold, business is sold out, etc. It's never good to see J0 if you're hoping for an upgrade but there are some instances where they will still process upgrades (no shows, upgrade from J to F, oversold coach, etc.)
bscooter26 likes this.
Finsup72 is offline  
Old May 28, 2019, 8:02 pm
  #602  
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: San Diego
Programs: Plat Pro AAdvantage, but defected to BAEC
Posts: 1,222
Some more data points.....

PPRO with about 6K rolling EQD as my 2018 Oz trip fell off last month.

LAX-HKG Sat. 5/25. Flight was J7 the day before and there was even inventory in I (3 or 4 I can’t recall exactly) and a dozen unallocated seats. Drive up to LAX and arrive 4hrs before departure. Now J2 and 2 unallocated seats. Checked in at the airport (green cards have a sticker extension, so unable to check in online, hence 4hrs early). Get added to the upgrade list and my wife and I are now 1 and 2 of 6. About an hour later we drop to 3 and 4. Come boarding time, 1 and 2 clear, so we board when called. Settled into our seats in PE and some other passengers in the cabin are asking about upgrades and the crew mention the upgrade list and it’s order. About 10 mins before we close the doors the gate agent comes aboard and asks two different passengers who were part of a larger party in PE if they would like to move to J which they did. (as an aside, one other passenger was moved from Y to the last seat remaining in F!). I have no idea why the gate agent didn’t ask us as we were definitely next on the list. I refreshed the app several times before the door closed, but never saw anyone else with the check mark except 1 and 2 on the list.

For the return on Mon 5/27, the flight was J7/I7 upon our arrival on the Sunday, but we still hadn’t cleared. Mid morning an EF C availability alert went off, so I checked and saw that the flight was C3, so I called AA and asked them to process the upgrade. The agent needed my credit card number as there was no record of it on the reservation which was strange as I had provided that information when submitting the miles + copay request months ago.

I’m guessing it was also missing on the outbound request and the gate agent couldn’t be bothered to get it from us as we were already aboard and as it was close to departure time, skipped us.
Reetmafreen is offline  
Old May 30, 2019, 5:23 pm
  #603  
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Amb Elite & LT Titanium, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,230
Originally Posted by Gabrca


Just as an update, the flight was zeroed out in all classes about 3 days before departure. At check in they said economy was oversold, but 5 seats remained free in J. Ended up being number 1 on the list out of 8. As predicted, 5 upgrades cleared but only exactly 60 minutes before departure.
My related experience this past Sunday, Had to move from DFW-PHL-EDI do to maint delays on inbound aircraft. Took the only two 'open' seats on DFW-LHR flght 20. Only one of us had a seat initially confirmed. J=0, X=0 4hours before the flight. Look at the seat map and J has 15+ unassigned seats, X has 10 unassigned seats. Three people on the UG list for a Sunday evening flight on Memorial day weekend.

T-2 driving to the airport, get a call from American, they want to offer me $400 per ticket for us to go on later flight. I'm think something is fishy here so I pass (I saw them give away 2 vouches for $800 on a LGA monday morning flight.. I refused, Mrs. Deac83 wanted to take money, I could see it unfolding we were going to get the UG's. Over sold flight in coach, what appears to be a half empty J (sure I now the seat map does not equal ticket sold but ...).

Check-in T-20, still in coach. Get to Admirals Club, we are moved to J. Look at seat map, now only 3 open seats in J, but X now empty (assume they moved all of X into J. Sitting on the plane at 15 till departure, now X is full.

What I took from all of this (and I've seen it on other trans-con flights), AA now will over sell Y and stop selling J and X. I'm missing the long game AA has for this, they are not offering to sell any of those empty J and X seats, but are happy to do last minute EVIP UGs and X to J free UGs.

This entire process seems messed up now, AA was willing to pay us $800, when we had EVIP's in the queue that were going to clear.
deac83 is offline  
Old May 31, 2019, 12:52 pm
  #604  
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 222
Originally Posted by deac83
My related experience this past Sunday, Had to move from DFW-PHL-EDI do to maint delays on inbound aircraft. Took the only two 'open' seats on DFW-LHR flght 20. Only one of us had a seat initially confirmed. J=0, X=0 4hours before the flight.
What I took from all of this (and I've seen it on other trans-con flights), AA now will over sell Y and stop selling J and X. I'm missing the long game AA has for this, they are not offering to sell any of those empty J and X seats, but are happy to do last minute EVIP UGs and X to J free UGs.

This entire process seems messed up now, AA was willing to pay us $800, when we had EVIP's in the queue that were going to clear.
You are correct. AA is definitely overselling Y into W/J and overselling W into J (thereby underselling J). Revenue management will only do it when Y is oversold and the goal is to claim revenue that otherwise would go unclaimed. It's my understanding that is largely a manual process and one that's not automated yet influenced by historical sales data based on day of week, time of year, time of day and prior year sales for the particular class. Incidentally the availability of C space is now nearly 100% automated by algorithm.

The pro-active calling of passengers is handled by a completely different 'same day' department which is an extension of customer relations. The purpose is to minimize impact and large payouts at the gate due to bumping rules. What you experienced clearly was a case of the right arm not talking to the left arm and some groups work off systems that do not have a overall picture of whats going on (Sabre vs SAGE vs others).
FleyeSkyHigh is offline  
Old May 31, 2019, 2:59 pm
  #605  
Hilton 25+ BadgeMarriott 10+ Badge
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 4,268
As an EXP, using my SWU recently for flight from
SXM-MIA -. was initially told 1 seat left in Business - but finally someone else with a higher status (? a CK member?) cleared ahead of me
MIA-CLT - cleared when purchasing the ticket
CLT-SAN - again another failure

Since the last 2 years, even as an EXP - clearing upgrades on both status or SWU has been very poor - I believe even the 100 hrs out upgrade for EXP is a fairytale from the past.

Cheers!
nldogbert is offline  
Old May 31, 2019, 6:09 pm
  #606  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
Originally Posted by nldogbert
Snipped...

I believe even the 100 hrs out upgrade for EXP is a fairytale from the past.

Cheers!
It does exist... I was cleared two weeks ago at the 100 hr mark accordingly:

SFO-DFW A321
DFW-MIA A332 (cleared @t100 hrs)
MIA-STI 738
STI-MIA 738 (cleared @t100 hrs.)
MIA-DFW 752
DFW-SFO A321

Ultimately, all legs cleared at the gate or during my connection flight.

One just have to have faith...
Zacnlinc is offline  
Old May 31, 2019, 7:24 pm
  #607  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,562
Originally Posted by nldogbert
As an EXP, using my SWU recently for flight from
SXM-MIA -. was initially told 1 seat left in Business - but finally someone else with a higher status (? a CK member?) cleared ahead of me
MIA-CLT - cleared when purchasing the ticket
CLT-SAN - again another failure
So you ended up burning an SWU on MIA-CLT? Ouch.
bse118 is online now  
Old Jun 1, 2019, 7:42 am
  #608  
Hilton 25+ BadgeMarriott 10+ Badge
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 4,268
Originally Posted by bse118
So you ended up burning an SWU on MIA-CLT? Ouch.
Yes,sadly, however since I already know for the coming months until expiry I will not be on any AA operated/marketing flights I decided to just use it for this one. So indeed it seemed like a big waste, however it was a gamble on my side (I had expected a higher chance compared to using the complimentary upgrade, but sadly not).

Cheers!
nldogbert is offline  
Old Jun 1, 2019, 9:17 am
  #609  
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,562
Originally Posted by nldogbert
I believe even the 100 hrs out upgrade for EXP is a fairytale from the past
Originally Posted by Zacnlinc
It does exist... I was cleared two weeks ago at the 100 hr mark accordingly:
Indeed it does. Cleared a flight today at 100 hrs, on an award ticket to boot.
bse118 is online now  
Old Jun 1, 2019, 9:45 am
  #610  
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Phoenix/Columbus
Programs: Delta Silver Medallion, United Gold, US Airways silver
Posts: 1,716
Ditto; for Mrs Remedy & me (!). Short flight from PHX => BUR but nice none-the-less.
remedy is offline  
Old Jun 1, 2019, 11:27 am
  #611  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 29,757
I cleared phx-dfw yesterday and I cleared earlier on the week (Monday). I was very happy and pleased to be up front.

It seems odd that I get upgraded on a hub to hub flight on a Friday no less but Thursday this week I was number 12 on the list out of 25 for a 48 minute TUL-DFW hop. Crazy.
enviroian is offline  
Old Jun 1, 2019, 8:12 pm
  #612  
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JY1024 is offline  
Old Jun 2, 2019, 3:14 pm
  #613  
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: DCA/IAD/WAS
Programs: MAR AMB, WOH Explorist, AA EXP, UA 2P
Posts: 2,133
I cleared DCA-MIA for tomorrow at T-100 and then MIA-MSY for Thursday at T-100 today, so I guess it's *still* a YMMV situation. 🤷.♂️
iadisgreat is offline  
Old Jun 2, 2019, 4:40 pm
  #614  
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Amb Elite & LT Titanium, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,230
Originally Posted by FleyeSkyHigh
You are correct. AA is definitely overselling Y into W/J and overselling W into J (thereby underselling J). Revenue management will only do it when Y is oversold and the goal is to claim revenue that otherwise would go unclaimed. It's my understanding that is largely a manual process and one that's not automated yet influenced by historical sales data based on day of week, time of year, time of day and prior year sales for the particular class. Incidentally the availability of C space is now nearly 100% automated by algorithm.

The pro-active calling of passengers is handled by a completely different 'same day' department which is an extension of customer relations. The purpose is to minimize impact and large payouts at the gate due to bumping rules. What you experienced clearly was a case of the right arm not talking to the left arm and some groups work off systems that do not have a overall picture of whats going on (Sabre vs SAGE vs others).
Appreciate the feedback. AA has either misjudged how they recognize EXP loyalty or have decided that we can't or won't change (i.e. I'm based in DFW so what choice do I really have).
deac83 is offline  
Old Jun 3, 2019, 5:36 am
  #615  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Long Island, NY
Programs: AA EXP, Hyatt Explorist, Marriott Gold
Posts: 717
Upgrade Y->J using SWU for AA 107 (LHR-JFK) on Sunday June 2nd: it cleared automatically around 4 hours before take-off.
I could see 8 biz seats available/not assigned on Expertflyer the day before, and it was showing as 'J4'.
So far in 2019: 4/4 SWU on TATL flights cleared.

('low' EXP with ~14k$ spent in 2018 if I recall)
zip10001 is offline  

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