Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm

FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides

Last edit by: JDiver

Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing

NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)

Elite status

Concierge Key
Executive Platinum
Platinum Pro
Platinum
Gold

Upgrade type

Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by

Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
Booking class
Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

Closed Thread Subscribe

Thread Tools

Search this Thread

Mar 23, 2019, 10:04 pm

#376

flyingeph12

Join Date: Jan 2012

Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist

Posts: 2,846

Quote:

Originally Posted by HLCinCOU

Why? To what purpose? If you waitlist at T-21 and it hasn't cleared at T-7, you're still have exactly the same ability to reassess loads or whatever else. How does waitlisting early hurt you?

As long as there is a nonzero chance of it opening up, there's an obvious benefit to having waitlisted. There appears to be absolutely no downside. If there is some downside I'm not seeing, what is it?

The downside, as a general matter, is you use 15000 points + $75 when you might have been able to clear a sticker upgrade. I mean, isn’t that why people post in this thread? If you were just going to pay for an upgrade, why would you post here?

And just so I don't have to repeat myself, I will quote what I said in my original post with regards to OP's specific situation:

Quote:

That said, this is a Thursday evening redeye, and OP only has $15k rolling EQD. Under these circumstances, I would say in general a sticker upgrade is unlikely, even if it's J7, and therefore, miles + copay is probably the only way to clear an upgrade. I'd say it might be a different circumstance if it's the 3pm flight midweek, and OP has $25k EQD.

Last edited by flyingeph12; Mar 23, 2019 at 10:14 pm

Mar 25, 2019, 5:10 pm

#377

gates_2

Join Date: Sep 2009

Programs: Marriott Plat, Hyatt Glob AA Plat

Posts: 262

I'm A PPro and have a miles+copay upgrade in for AA175 tomorrow DFW-NRT
Expert flyer is showing:
J0 R0 D0 I0 W0 P0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0
G0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0

Is this flight really completely sold out already, thus no chance?

Mar 25, 2019, 6:14 pm

#378

DMPHL

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: NYC

Programs: AA EXP

Posts: 1,372

Quote:

Originally Posted by gates_2

Looks on EF like pretty much every seat is occupied, so I would assume that yes, it's sold out.

Mar 25, 2019, 6:23 pm

#379

Reetmafreen

Join Date: Apr 2016

Location: San Diego

Programs: Plat Pro AAdvantage, but defected to BAEC

Posts: 1,222

One can hope that there is the possibility of an “op up” in that Y an PE might be oversold and AA closed off selling J in order to the roll cabins. AA being AA will probably still tan you for the miles and copay though, despite the fact that might have to do this to avoid IDB.

Mar 26, 2019, 7:21 am

#380

airmarc

Join Date: May 2006

Location: Charlotte

Programs: AA EX PLAT

Posts: 89

Greetings all, Waiting for an SWU to clear MIA-LHR in BIZ and its T-36 hours. I expect this is normal for AA to hold out this long to sell seats. There are still 10 seats left for sale. Wonder what others experiences are. They seem especially resistant to clear (c) inventory on this route until the last minute. Just hoping for T-24. Lets see!

Mar 26, 2019, 7:28 am

#381

JJeffrey

FlyerTalk Evangelist

Join Date: Feb 2001

Location: RDU <|> MMX

Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS

Posts: 12,455

Quote:

Originally Posted by airmarc

Standard behavior for AA on a route like MIA-LHR, keep an eye on it today as you'll most likely see some C space open up around T-30 to T-24 hrs.

Mar 26, 2019, 8:41 am

#382

xal

Join Date: Mar 2019

Posts: 2

Long time lurker, but finally have a few DPs to add. Thanks to all for the info so far! PP, $1k EQD

3/19/19, AA 1366, Cleared @ T-72

3/21/19, AA 0504, Cleared @ T-48

Next up: AA 193 (4/4) and AA 192 (4/9). Have SWUs applied in both directions for me and Mrs. Xal. Currently J7 I7 and 25+ open seats on expert flyer. Seems this route has been hit or miss over the last couple months - any recent DPs out there?

Mar 26, 2019, 11:56 am

#383

jrb CO

Join Date: Mar 2017

Posts: 102

DFW - SCL next February. Looks like AA swapping to 788 on that route with only 20 business seats. Chance of upgrade for EP (and wife) with $18K spend?? I felt more confident on this route in the past with greater number of business seats.

Mar 26, 2019, 12:52 pm

#384

Brainless69

Join Date: Dec 2015

Posts: 150

Not sure if this is the right thread but do U class awards ever change to C class awards? I’m guessing at the gate or t-24? I can see on my flights that there are 4 U class awards but 0 C class so hoping it will change soon so I can get my upgrade

Mar 26, 2019, 1:25 pm

#385

dave_261

Join Date: Nov 2001

Location: RDU

Posts: 2,263

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrb CO

Very small sample size, but I see a lot of J7 on DFW-SCL in the coming weeks (and no C), which is a good sign that business isn't selling out (again, very small sample size and seasonality may be different in Feb). That said, huge difference in the 30-seat 789 vs. 20-seat 788. EXP with $18k spend sounds like generally top 5 on the upgrade list, but 20-seat J cabin feels like it will typically be a day-of-departure upgrade, if at all.

In general, the reduced business cabins on the 772 and 788 will absolutely result in a lower upgrade rate.

Mar 26, 2019, 1:31 pm

#386

airmarc

Join Date: May 2006

Location: Charlotte

Programs: AA EX PLAT

Posts: 89

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJeffrey

Standard behavior for AA on a route like MIA-LHR, keep an eye on it today as you'll most likely see some C space open up around T-30 to T-24 hrs.

For all to know, it was cleared T-32

Mar 26, 2019, 2:57 pm

#387

wonglam

Join Date: Mar 2019

Posts: 2

I'm flying from LAX-HKG on AA193 in PE on March 31 with my mom, sister and baby (1 year old lap infant) . I'm on the waitlist for miles+copay upgrade to business and wondering what the chances of clearing.

Currently expert flyer showing:
F6 A6 J7 R7 D7 I7 W5 P3 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L4 G7 V3 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0

Any frequent flyers on this route knowing the chances of clearing miles+copay upgrade? Not sure if having a lap infant will lower the chances.

Thanks.

Mar 26, 2019, 4:07 pm

#388

platbrownguy

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: Live: IWI; Work: DCA/Everywhere; Play: LAS/SJU/MLE

Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Ambassador/LTP, Nat'l Exec Elite, LEYE Gold

Posts: 6,669

Quote:

Originally Posted by xal

Long time lurker, but finally have a few DPs to add.

Welcome to FT!

Quote:

Originally Posted by wonglam

Seat map looks pretty good if you're EXP... no idea re: infant.

Mar 26, 2019, 4:36 pm

#389

DMPHL

Join Date: Jul 2009

Location: NYC

Programs: AA EXP

Posts: 1,372

Quote:

Originally Posted by wonglam

I'm not sure if having a lap infant will lower the chances of a an upgrade, but I'd be careful that you don't have to pay a higher fee (percentage of cash fare) for your baby when you're upgraded.

platbrownguy likes this.

Mar 26, 2019, 9:41 pm

#390

Halo117

Join Date: Aug 2007

Location: Tx

Programs: AA, UA, WN

Posts: 812

Greetings...called to apply swu for non status family member from phx to hnl on march 31st. How do I ensure the agent applied the swu properly as the reservation does not mention anything? Chances of clearing if properly applied?

TIA