Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
Then, by
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
- Booking class
- Time of request
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)
#361
Join Date: Dec 2016
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 214
Thinking about an overnight SFO-JFK, buying coach and very much wanting to upgrade to business class for sleep. This would be on a Thursday night, so peak day for consultants flying back. A few weeks out, flight is F7 A3 J7 D0 I0. Seatmap shows 10/10 available in F and 23/30 available in J, which sounds like great news. But J7 D0 means RM thinks they can sell these seats at full price. At least it's SFO-JFK, rather than LAX-JFK, as AA seems to clear more upgrades on the former. Still, last-minute business travel. Guidance and experience welcomed.
AA EXP, EQD rolling 12-month about $15k
AA EXP, EQD rolling 12-month about $15k
#362
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
I'm not sure I see your point. Yes, perhaps it's unlikely the miles+copay will clear. But it's certainly more likely than a comp or sticker upgrade clearing, right? If bedelman wants the upgrade, the best bet is to waitlist miles+copay. It might not happen, but it's the best shot.
#363
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
I'm not sure I see your point. Yes, perhaps it's unlikely the miles+copay will clear. But it's certainly more likely than a comp or sticker upgrade clearing, right? If bedelman wants the upgrade, the best bet is to waitlist miles+copay. It might not happen, but it's the best shot.
That said, this is a Thursday evening redeye, and OP only has $15k rolling EQD. Under these circumstances, I would say in general a sticker upgrade is unlikely, even if it's J7, and therefore, miles + copay is probably the only way to clear an upgrade. I'd say it might be a different circumstance if it's the 3pm flight midweek, and OP has $25k EQD.
#364
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Live: IWI; Work: DCA/Everywhere; Play: LAS/SJU/MLE
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Ambassador/LTP, Nat'l Exec Elite, LEYE Gold
Posts: 6,664
I'm not sure I see your point. Yes, perhaps it's unlikely the miles+copay will clear. But it's certainly more likely than a comp or sticker upgrade clearing, right? If bedelman wants the upgrade, the best bet is to waitlist miles+copay. It might not happen, but it's the best shot.
OP "really wants to upgrade to business" -- my point is that neither miles nor sticker is likely, but miles is likelier, so maybe keep an eye on C or go ahead and waitlist it... and presumably if the flight gets significantly fuller in J by 7 days out, consider upfaring if that's on the table (and before the J fare gets even higher). If J is very open though, I'd want to give the comp sticker upgrade a chance to clear at the 100 hour window. So... it's complicated!
#365
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Also, stickers/comps don't come out of the C upgrade space, so if you waitlist for it, and they decide to release C1 at T-8 or whatever, you can clear into it immediately, even if you're asleep or on some other flight.
#366
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Uh, yeah, pretty sure everybody gets that. Seemed clear to me that OP really would like to maximize his chances at flying J but was unwilling (or unable per employer rules, etc.) to pay the price of full-fare business. That's a description that fits me on nearly every flight as well.
#367
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXPLT
Posts: 99
This question may well be in one of the earlier 25 pages, but does anyone take the same view that just buying the seat you want is actually the best option today? I know there are corporate restrictions and all that, but this applies in the questions applies in the leisure market as much the business.
Domestically, I fly DFW to LAX/SFO/ORD/JFK/MIA. Yes, I'm an EXPLT, but so what - half of DFW airport is at any given time. So now I just buy the First class ticket and choose 4A or 4F so I know I can work (no one can see), have my meal of choice and have a easier re-qual route each year. I only spend $25-30k a year on flights in totoal so my AA EQD is never going to be the deal maker compared to other round here. It's not that much more expensive and I just plan a little better or further in advance. Average F ticket price (especially on DFW\/SFO) is falling.
International is a little different due to the much wider fare gap, so my comment is mainly restricted to domestic in the first instance.
Just my $0.02
Domestically, I fly DFW to LAX/SFO/ORD/JFK/MIA. Yes, I'm an EXPLT, but so what - half of DFW airport is at any given time. So now I just buy the First class ticket and choose 4A or 4F so I know I can work (no one can see), have my meal of choice and have a easier re-qual route each year. I only spend $25-30k a year on flights in totoal so my AA EQD is never going to be the deal maker compared to other round here. It's not that much more expensive and I just plan a little better or further in advance. Average F ticket price (especially on DFW\/SFO) is falling.
International is a little different due to the much wider fare gap, so my comment is mainly restricted to domestic in the first instance.
Just my $0.02
#368
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Live: IWI; Work: DCA/Everywhere; Play: LAS/SJU/MLE
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Ambassador/LTP, Nat'l Exec Elite, LEYE Gold
Posts: 6,664
Uh, yeah, pretty sure everybody gets that. Seemed clear to me that OP really would like to maximize his chances at flying J but was unwilling (or unable per employer rules, etc.) to pay the price of full-fare business. That's a description that fits me on nearly every flight as well.
To me this whole charade (which of course I sort of enjoy) is analogous to self-insurance for property damage -- in the long run, I think I'm far better off using FT & ExpertFlyer to fly F at the minimum contribution (even if occasionally I get stuck paying for an expensive ticket to fly up front) than I would be if I always paid for F.
End of the day, after thinking about it a bit more, if I were OP I'd probably wait until 7 days before departure to evaluate further, with an alert for C set on ExpertFlyer. At 7 days out, if the J cabin is still very empty, I'd probably ride it out until the 100-hour window to see if sticker upgrade clears. If not, I'd then call in to waitlist the miles/copay upgrade under the presumption that maybe just maybe, at 24-36 hours out, some C availability will emerge.
#369
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
There's your error. Miles+copay takes priority over stickers/comps, regardless of EQD. Says so right in the wiki at the top of this thread.
Also, stickers/comps don't come out of the C upgrade space, so if you waitlist for it, and they decide to release C1 at T-8 or whatever, you can clear into it immediately, even if you're asleep or on some other flight.
Also, stickers/comps don't come out of the C upgrade space, so if you waitlist for it, and they decide to release C1 at T-8 or whatever, you can clear into it immediately, even if you're asleep or on some other flight.
My point is that it doesn't make a difference if you waitlist a miles + copay upgrade at T-21 or T-7 (as it used to before EQDs were introduced), and therefore, it could make sense to wait, monitor, and reassess loads closer to the flight. You are right that if AA releases C space early, waiting could mean missing out on the C upgrade. But as I mentioned, in my experience C space doesn't tend to open up early on this route.
#370
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: DC
Programs: AA PPRO, HH Diamond, National EE
Posts: 603
Just cleared DCA-ORD at T-36ish. PLAT with $5300 spend.
Ive used around 26 500 mile upgrades in the last six months. It’s all about realistic expectations, if you are gold and platinum just pick your flights correctly and you can put them to good use.
Ive used around 26 500 mile upgrades in the last six months. It’s all about realistic expectations, if you are gold and platinum just pick your flights correctly and you can put them to good use.
#371
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Stilllwater OK (SWO)
Programs: AAdvantage ExecPlat, World of Hyatt Globalist, plain "member" of Marriott, IHG, enterprise, etc.
Posts: 1,844
I'm flying in and out of DCA/IAD (respectively) mid next week (from DFW) and noticed on both of my flights, 2 or 3 F seats have opened up in the last 2 days. Maybe it is common for DC area airports? Haven't really noticed it on other routes before. Anyways, I have (probably still unrealistic) hope of clearing at least 1 of the upgrades based on having more than a few F seats open now and a half-empty MCE sections -- not all that important really, other than I feel burned in that I have only cleared 1 flight since getting PlatPro (short DFW-MSY) out of ~18 eligible segments.
#372
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AA EXP; 1W Emerald; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold; UA dirt
Posts: 7,811
In general I find my upgrade chances to be higher at IAD. But that means going to IAD where the AA set up is an afterthought - no club and at the very end of the B concourse.
#373
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Stilllwater OK (SWO)
Programs: AAdvantage ExecPlat, World of Hyatt Globalist, plain "member" of Marriott, IHG, enterprise, etc.
Posts: 1,844
This is my first flight out of IAD actually -- I've always used DCA for the good AA schedule and/or its convenient location. My only LUS flights in my flight history were all of my pre-merger DC bound flights. Anyways, I was surprised how few AA flights there are out of IAD, but I had a tight window in the afternoon in which I needed to leave (late enough after my meetings, early enough to make my connection home) and the mid afternoon DCA flights were hundreds of dollars more than the afternoon IAD flight, and with a colleague willing to drive me the airport, I thought what the heck I'll trek out to IAD. I would pin my upgrade chances more on that return flight -- a bit more than a 1/3 of the seat map is empty (both in Y and F), but the skeptical part of me wonders if AA will pull it in their 738 juggling act.
#374
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Well, OP said explicitly he was going to buy coach, and was hoping to upgrade. So your point that buying J is more likely to result in a J seat is a)irrelevant to his stated situation and b)information everybody already knows. So it's not helpful, and phrasing it as a correction to me saying miles+copay was his best shot is a bit flippant. That's why my response was less than friendly (though I wouldn't go so far as "hostile").
Of course, I completely understand this perspective. But it's clear from OP's post that's not where he's coming from.
This still makes no sense to me. If your plan is to waitlist at T-7days, what possible harm can come from waitlisting right now? Maybe it won't open up between now and then, in which case, no harm. If it does open up in the middle of the night and somebody clears into it before you see the alert, that's a big loss. Maybe that's not a huge percentage of the time, but so what? What's the downside?
You may not pay the difference for J but I personally won't take a redeye in coach, so if I book one, I know my exit strategies are (1) BXP1 (surrogate for OP's miles/copay), (2) sticker upgrade, or (3) pay up if I lose the upgrade game (either to full J, or if it's sold out, to full J on an alternate flight; if I'm inflexible I will usually avoid playing the upgrade game in the first place because odds are it means I have to be in decent shape when I get where I'm going!).
End of the day, after thinking about it a bit more, if I were OP I'd probably wait until 7 days before departure to evaluate further, with an alert for C set on ExpertFlyer. At 7 days out, if the J cabin is still very empty, I'd probably ride it out until the 100-hour window to see if sticker upgrade clears. If not, I'd then call in to waitlist the miles/copay upgrade under the presumption that maybe just maybe, at 24-36 hours out, some C availability will emerge.
#375
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
I am well aware that miles + copay takes priority over stickers, which is why the very first thing I said was, "Yes, a miles + copay upgrade is more likely to clear than a sticker upgrade."
My point is that it doesn't make a difference if you waitlist a miles + copay upgrade at T-21 or T-7 (as it used to before EQDs were introduced), and therefore, it could make sense to wait, monitor, and reassess loads closer to the flight.
My point is that it doesn't make a difference if you waitlist a miles + copay upgrade at T-21 or T-7 (as it used to before EQDs were introduced), and therefore, it could make sense to wait, monitor, and reassess loads closer to the flight.
As long as there is a nonzero chance of it opening up, there's an obvious benefit to having waitlisted. There appears to be absolutely no downside. If there is some downside I'm not seeing, what is it?