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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

Old Mar 20, 2019, 9:15 am
  #346  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,348
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
Pretty much yea, if it stays J1 then I would expect C space to appear no sooner than ~4 hrs before the flight right up to the gate.
If the flight remains J1, then based on my experience I would not count on C ever being published, with the last seat going to upgrades at the gate. If J2, however, it's not uncommon to see C1 published sometime inside of T-48h, but for a route like JFK-LAX, I'd say the chances of that happening are lower than on other routes.
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Old Mar 20, 2019, 12:40 pm
  #347  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Washington DC
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 66
PP with around 10k.

DCA-JFK on 3/15 at 6pm...#2 on the list and pushed to #3 right before boarding, top two spots cleared (and I usually do on this flight).

LGA-DCA-MIA on 3/18 at 1pm...cleared both legs at 72hrs.

MIA-CLT-DCA-LGA on 3/20 at 11am...#3 from MIA and #8 of 29 from CLT. Cleared to LGA at 72 hours.
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Old Mar 20, 2019, 1:35 pm
  #348  
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Live: PWM/KBXM/BGR; Work: DCA/DFW/Everywhere; Play: LAS/MUC/MLE
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Ambassador/LTP, Nat'l Exec Elite, mlife Noir, LEYE Gold
Posts: 6,630
Originally Posted by redtop43
Puzzled a bit.

I made the effort to make PPro this year mainly for upgrades on my monthly LAS-PHL redeye (usually Friday but occasionally Thursday). I cleared in both January and February, and both times there were still F seats available after my upgrade. Usual equipment is A321 and the usual flight number is 589.

I booked for this week in January, flight number was 1876 and seat was 5D, showing "Food available for purchase" so obviously the seat map contemplated 4 rows of F. However, the equipment now shows 763. Seems there's a flight from San Juan to Philly, which becomes a nonstop to Vegas, and turns around to go back to Philly.

But oddly, with 28 F seats the 763, there are only 2 remaining. I haven't been upgraded (it's now T-49) and I don't expect to be.

Right now the price is $597 for Y and $720 for F. Yes, with this small a price difference, paying extra for the lie-flats is a no-brainer. But how many people waited this long to book, and how many would even bother to look and see that F means J-lie flat.

Maybe I'm just venting, but I'm not sure why in the analogous situation 3 weeks ago (my last eastbound trip) at this point there were 9 F seats filled, and this time there are 26.
Originally Posted by flyingeph12
There might be something going on in Vegas this week (like a huge convention) that might be affecting demand.

My guess would be that both the equipment swap and the cabin occupancy are MAX-related on top of likely spring conferences and school/college sports meets.

I think LAS was indirectly affected a fair bit by planes being reallocated around the system to fix the MAX problem, along with corresponding schedule changes.
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Old Mar 20, 2019, 1:52 pm
  #349  
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: DC
Programs: AA PPRO, HH Diamond, National EE
Posts: 603
Originally Posted by Tbooth3
PP with around 10k.

DCA-JFK on 3/15 at 6pm...#2 on the list and pushed to #3 right before boarding, top two spots cleared (and I usually do on this flight).

LGA-DCA-MIA on 3/18 at 1pm...cleared both legs at 72hrs.

MIA-CLT-DCA-LGA on 3/20 at 11am...#3 from MIA and #8 of 29 from CLT. Cleared to LGA at 72 hours.
That's a lot of segments to cover not a lot of ground. You do that by choice?
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Old Mar 20, 2019, 1:57 pm
  #350  
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 29,759
Empty seat. If im that #3 guy on the list I would be pissed. How does this happen? This is 368 to SEA.
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Old Mar 20, 2019, 2:18 pm
  #351  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Originally Posted by enviroian
Empty seat. If im that #3 guy on the list I would be pissed. How does this happen? This is 368 to SEA.
DFW gate agent trying to make sure the door closes 5 minutes early, perhaps? Or simply too lazy to come down the jetway to upgrade #3 ?
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Old Mar 20, 2019, 3:15 pm
  #352  
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Originally Posted by flyingeph12
DFW gate agent trying to make sure the door closes 5 minutes early, perhaps? Or simply too lazy to come down the jetway to upgrade #3 ?
Probably the latter. I didnt say anything as #4 I didnt have a shot regardless.
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Old Mar 20, 2019, 3:24 pm
  #353  
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 29,759
Looks like we were both wrong.

Twitter reply:

“If there's space for an upgrade we should be processing it. We looked into it and 4C is out of service.”
flyingeph12 likes this.
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Old Mar 20, 2019, 4:43 pm
  #354  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Washington DC
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 66
Originally Posted by hawkfan7314
That's a lot of segments to cover not a lot of ground. You do that by choice?
Very true, I booked fairly last minute and it was slightly cheaper while also adding a few segments. Its been a slow start to the year for me so trying to pick up a few when I have time.
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Old Mar 21, 2019, 6:04 pm
  #355  
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bellevue, WA - AA EXP 3MM
Posts: 2,756
Thinking about an overnight SFO-JFK, buying coach and very much wanting to upgrade to business class for sleep. This would be on a Thursday night, so peak day for consultants flying back. A few weeks out, flight is F7 A3 J7 D0 I0. Seatmap shows 10/10 available in F and 23/30 available in J, which sounds like great news. But J7 D0 means RM thinks they can sell these seats at full price. At least it's SFO-JFK, rather than LAX-JFK, as AA seems to clear more upgrades on the former. Still, last-minute business travel. Guidance and experience welcomed.

AA EXP, EQD rolling 12-month about $15k

Last edited by bedelman; Mar 21, 2019 at 6:12 pm
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Old Mar 21, 2019, 7:32 pm
  #356  
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deleted

Last edited by S.R; Mar 21, 2019 at 7:57 pm
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Old Mar 21, 2019, 8:17 pm
  #357  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Originally Posted by bedelman
Thinking about an overnight SFO-JFK, buying coach and very much wanting to upgrade to business class for sleep. This would be on a Thursday night, so peak day for consultants flying back. A few weeks out, flight is F7 A3 J7 D0 I0. Seatmap shows 10/10 available in F and 23/30 available in J, which sounds like great news. But J7 D0 means RM thinks they can sell these seats at full price. At least it's SFO-JFK, rather than LAX-JFK, as AA seems to clear more upgrades on the former. Still, last-minute business travel. Guidance and experience welcomed.

AA EXP, EQD rolling 12-month about $15k
If it were me, I'd probably do a miles+copay to skip the line. That does look like a lot of J seats, but the last 789 flight I took (DFW-LAX) had 53 people on the gate upgrade list.
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Old Mar 21, 2019, 8:21 pm
  #358  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
On the other hand...booked COU-DFW-LAX this morning for next Monday. Ticketing got hung up because COU-DFW upgrade cleared too fast, but once that was sorted both legs cleared comp upgrades within a few hours of booking. COU-DFW was J3/I0 and DFW-LAX was J7/I3 when I booked. I was considering whether to do miles+copay, but they rendered that question moot.
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Old Mar 21, 2019, 9:43 pm
  #359  
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Live: PWM/KBXM/BGR; Work: DCA/DFW/Everywhere; Play: LAS/MUC/MLE
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Ambassador/LTP, Nat'l Exec Elite, mlife Noir, LEYE Gold
Posts: 6,630
Originally Posted by bedelman
Thinking about an overnight SFO-JFK, buying coach and very much wanting to upgrade to business class for sleep. . . . Still, last-minute business travel. Guidance and experience welcomed.
Originally Posted by HLCinCOU
If it were me, I'd probably do a miles+copay to skip the line.
Well, I'd definitely set an alert for C availability on ExpertFlyer, and if any pops up, I would call in to do the mileage + copay.

But I have my doubts that any will pop up given that there's only J availability. I have been watching things pretty closely the past year and AA seems to do a remarkably good job of predicting when it will and won't sell seats at the higher prices... not perfect, but far and away the majority of times I say "there's no way they'll fill the cabin without and D and I inventory" it ends up filling up with upgrades only at the gate... and in situations with ample I (and any significant quantity of C) inventory in advance, the gate upgrade is easier.

So... I'd keep an eye on things. I suppose you could go ahead and waitlist the milage & copay upgrade, but I'd still set the ExpertFlyer alert. I wouldn't expect to see more than C1 if C comes up at all. I also wouldn't expect the cost to come down (presumably if you're looking at J0 it's already >$1900). Unlike LAX there's only 1 redeye from SFO so I imagine it'll end up filling up closer in.

Maybe someone else can chime in re: likelihood of your clearing a battlefield upgrade. I'm a ~$23k EXP but I've lost patience gambling on anything as long as a transcon so I don't know whether you'd be in the handful to clear but my hunch is no.
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Old Mar 21, 2019, 9:46 pm
  #360  
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Live: PWM/KBXM/BGR; Work: DCA/DFW/Everywhere; Play: LAS/MUC/MLE
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Ambassador/LTP, Nat'l Exec Elite, mlife Noir, LEYE Gold
Posts: 6,630
Originally Posted by HLCinCOU
On the other hand...booked COU-DFW-LAX this morning for next Monday. Ticketing got hung up because COU-DFW upgrade cleared too fast, but once that was sorted both legs cleared comp upgrades within a few hours of booking. COU-DFW was J3/I0 and DFW-LAX was J7/I3 when I booked. I was considering whether to do miles+copay, but they rendered that question moot.
Interesting -- but I think it's a different calculus when you're that close to departure at booking (i.e. already within the upgrade window) because the time to buy an advance purchase fare has passed and (assuming it's the right kind of route) AA optimizes by holding out for high-fare true-last-minute pax. I've had plenty of CLT-DCA upgrades surprisingly clear when it's been J3/4/5. But OP is a "few weeks" out (and presumably AA is offering D and I on at least some non-redeyes that day)... so I'd gamble that the redeye will fill up.
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