Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Airlines and Mileage Programs > American Airlines | AAdvantage
Reload this Page >

ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




Print Wikipost

ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

Old Jan 15, 2019, 8:13 am
  #76  
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: FLL/MIA
Programs: AAdvantage / HHonors /Hyatt
Posts: 8
Originally Posted by ijgordon
If you're Executive Platinum using your own SWU, your chances are 72%.
If you don't have any elite status on AA and are using a SWU gifted by someone else, then your chances are 17%.
In either case, your chances are much higher if you use the SWU than if you don't. @:-)
Good luck!
Thank you very much. It explains a lot..... 17% is better then 0 %
husnikkw is offline  
Old Jan 15, 2019, 11:08 am
  #77  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: NYC
Posts: 27,191
Originally Posted by husnikkw
Thank you very much. It explains a lot..... 17% is better then 0 %
As Gold it's probably closer to 26%, but will vary depending on how much you've spent with AA and its partners over the past year.
ijgordon is offline  
Old Jan 15, 2019, 3:57 pm
  #78  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Florida
Programs: MR PP/Ambassador, Amex Explat, Hertz PC
Posts: 41
I am EXP and have requested the use of my 4 SWU from MIA to MXP - the flight is on June 9th and am looking to upgrade my family and I (4 in total) from MIA to MXP - I'm on the waitlist, and I can see that no seats have been sold in business class yet. Any ideas on when (and if) my SWU will clear?
Joeinfl is offline  
Old Jan 15, 2019, 4:18 pm
  #79  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,361
Originally Posted by Joeinfl
I am EXP and have requested the use of my 4 SWU from MIA to MXP - the flight is on June 9th and am looking to upgrade my family and I (4 in total) from MIA to MXP - I'm on the waitlist, and I can see that no seats have been sold in business class yet. Any ideas on when (and if) my SWU will clear?
Probably won't clear until starting around a week before the flight, with a most likely scenario of around 24-48 hrs before. Every now and then AA seems to release bunches of random SWU space in advance, so you could get lucky, but its completely unpredictable.

As a data point, last year I had a MIA-MXP roundtrip in late April. For both the outbound and return the business cabin was wide open (no more than 50% full on both) yet AA didn't release any upgrade space till about 24-36 hrs before for both. This is standard operating procedure for a majority of AA long haul flights.
JJeffrey is offline  
Old Jan 16, 2019, 8:17 am
  #80  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Earth
Programs: AA - EXP 1MM, Marriott/SPG Plat, Hilton Gold, BA, DL, TWA Royal Ambassador
Posts: 309
I'm EXP with about 15K EQD wife is PlatPro with 9K EQD.... We are trying to use SWU's from DFW to PVG on 2/28 and return 4/3 from NRT-DFW AA178 .... Would we be better off splinting our PNR or would that leave my better half unlikely to get upgrade leaving me in the rear? Thanks!
MarJon is offline  
Old Jan 16, 2019, 8:40 am
  #81  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,669
Originally Posted by MarJon
I'm EXP with about 15K EQD wife is PlatPro with 9K EQD.... We are trying to use SWU's from DFW to PVG on 2/28 and return 4/3 from NRT-DFW AA178 .... Would we be better off splinting our PNR or would that leave my better half unlikely to get upgrade leaving me in the rear? Thanks!
2/28 is a long way off (J bookings tend to happen in the 1-3 weeks before the flight) but at the moment AA127 has only eight seats taken in J. 4/3 is even further off, but currently AA176 has just 6 seats taken.

Those would suggest your chances are pretty good. I wouldn't split the PNR now, but I would subscribe to Expertflyer and set an alert for C1 on those flights. Then you could review the seating situation at that moment and call and split the PNR if it seems like the right thing to do.
SeattleDavid is offline  
Old Jan 16, 2019, 8:56 am
  #82  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: NYC
Posts: 27,191
Agreed -- your chances of both getting upgraded are higher if you keep the PNR together; you both get EXP priority in the waitlist (although at 15k EQD it's probably not that high). I'd monitor the flight via ExpertFlyer, and if you see business class inventory availability start to dwindle in the 2-3 weeks before departure then you can re-assess.
ijgordon is offline  
Old Jan 16, 2019, 3:26 pm
  #83  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Earth
Programs: AA - EXP 1MM, Marriott/SPG Plat, Hilton Gold, BA, DL, TWA Royal Ambassador
Posts: 309
Originally Posted by SeattleDavid
2/28 is a long way off (J bookings tend to happen in the 1-3 weeks before the flight) but at the moment AA127 has only eight seats taken in J. 4/3 is even further off, but currently AA176 has just 6 seats taken. Those would suggest your chances are pretty good. I wouldn't split the PNR now, but I would subscribe to Expertflyer and set an alert for C1 on those flights. Then you could review the seating situation at that moment and call and split the PNR if it seems like the right thing to do.
Originally Posted by ijgordon
Agreed -- your chances of both getting upgraded are higher if you keep the PNR together; you both get EXP priority in the waitlist (although at 15k EQD it's probably not that high). I'd monitor the flight via ExpertFlyer, and if you see business class inventory availability start to dwindle in the 2-3 weeks before departure then you can re-assess.
Thanks Seattle and ij! At what point of inventory availability should we consider splitting the PNR? Thanks!
MarJon is offline  
Old Jan 16, 2019, 3:32 pm
  #84  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,143
Data point:

AA61 DFW-NRT on 1 Feb
My wife and I were upgraded on 13 Jan using Miles+Copy from PE. Bought the ticket early September and were waitlisted since.

Didn't get an EF alert, either. Only noticed when I refreshed our trip in the app and saw we did not have assigned seats.

I'm EXP with about 20K rolling EQD this time of year.
econometrics is offline  
Old Jan 16, 2019, 4:18 pm
  #85  
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: PHL
Programs: Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, AA Gold, FB Gold, ITA Volare Executive
Posts: 3,293
Originally Posted by econometrics
Data point:

AA61 DFW-NRT on 1 Feb
My wife and I were upgraded on 13 Jan using Miles+Copy from PE. Bought the ticket early September and were waitlisted since.

Didn't get an EF alert, either. Only noticed when I refreshed our trip in the app and saw we did not have assigned seats.

I'm EXP with about 20K rolling EQD this time of year.
So, a couple of questions... both of which assume that your seats now reflect your upgrade
  1. Have they already taken your miles and charged your credit card?
  2. Did the date marked ticketed change on your on-line reservation?
As noted somewhere up above, a couple of weeks ago I got an upgrade from PE to J, for a March flight. Like you, I wasn't notified; I noticed on-line (computer, not on App) that seats had gone missing in PE. Called in. Confirmed mileage account and credit card. Now shows on-line as us sitting in J. But no miles have left the account and nothing, not even pending, has hit the credit card. I'm wondering if this is normal; and if it is not normal, then what? TIA.
Biggie Fries is offline  
Old Jan 16, 2019, 4:40 pm
  #86  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,143
Originally Posted by Biggie Fries
So, a couple of questions... both of which assume that your seats now reflect your upgrade
  1. Have they already taken your miles and charged your credit card?
  2. Did the date marked ticketed change on your on-line reservation?
As noted somewhere up above, a couple of weeks ago I got an upgrade from PE to J, for a March flight. Like you, I wasn't notified; I noticed on-line (computer, not on App) that seats had gone missing in PE. Called in. Confirmed mileage account and credit card. Now shows on-line as us sitting in J. But no miles have left the account and nothing, not even pending, has hit the credit card. I'm wondering if this is normal; and if it is not normal, then what? TIA.
I called in to add an infant to the record, and they didn't mention anything about confirming my card to charge the copay and deduct the miles.

I did have a miles+copay clear within T24 LHR-DFW back in October, and those miles and the $350 were never charged to me for that one. But that could have been an LHR station error.

When I log into my account, in the reservation it still shows the upgrades as "Requested" and not "Confirmed", as it usually does when you clear. So I'm not sure what's up with AA's system on this right now. My card hasn't been hit, nor my miles deducted as of yet... 5 days later.
econometrics is offline  
Old Jan 16, 2019, 5:35 pm
  #87  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,669
Originally Posted by Biggie Fries
As noted somewhere up above, a couple of weeks ago I got an upgrade from PE to J, for a March flight. Like you, I wasn't notified; I noticed on-line (computer, not on App) that seats had gone missing in PE. Called in. Confirmed mileage account and credit card. Now shows on-line as us sitting in J. But no miles have left the account and nothing, not even pending, has hit the credit card. I'm wondering if this is normal; and if it is not normal, then what? TIA.
Ticketing can be slow, especially if the flight is a ways out - but if it takes more than a week then the credit card authorization is often lost, which means nothing will happen until you call in again or try to check in online (which won't be allowed since the upgrade won't have been ticketed).

If it has been more than a week, then call them again and give the credit card info again.
SeattleDavid is offline  
Old Jan 16, 2019, 5:46 pm
  #88  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,143
Originally Posted by SeattleDavid
Ticketing can be slow, especially if the flight is a ways out - but if it takes more than a week then the credit card authorization is often lost, which means nothing will happen until you call in again or try to check in online (which won't be allowed since the upgrade won't have been ticketed).

If it has been more than a week, then call them again and give the credit card info again.
Ours has been ticketed and I never had to confirm CC info or talk to an agent about it, so Im not sure about that. I suppose Ill find out at check in, but we are traveling with an infant... so the physically check in will be necessary regardless of the upgrade.
econometrics is offline  
Old Jan 16, 2019, 6:12 pm
  #89  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: AA Exec Plat, DL Plat (but not for long)
Posts: 175
Originally Posted by ijgordon
If you're Executive Platinum using your own SWU, your chances are 72%.
If you don't have any elite status on AA and are using a SWU gifted by someone else, then your chances are 17%.
In either case, your chances are much higher if you use the SWU than if you don't. @:-)
Good luck!
Just out of curiosity, how did you arrive at those percentages?

Flying LAX-GRU AA 215 on 2/22/19. I am Plat in Premium Economy and waitlisted with Miles+Copay. There are currently 11 open seats on seat map. What are the chances with this one?
KKinLA is offline  
Old Jan 17, 2019, 5:40 am
  #90  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Earth
Programs: AA - EXP 1MM, Marriott/SPG Plat, Hilton Gold, BA, DL, TWA Royal Ambassador
Posts: 309
Originally Posted by econometrics
Data point: AA61 DFW-NRT on 1 Feb My wife and I were upgraded on 13 Jan using Miles+Copy from PE. Bought the ticket early September and were waitlisted since.
Didn't get an EF alert, either. Only noticed when I refreshed our trip in the app and saw we did not have assigned seats
I noticed this too so, I've added the EF Seat Alert on the PE seats we are are sitting in while waiting for the SWU to hopefully kick in. That way if they become available then I know we received the upgrade.
econometrics likes this.

Last edited by MarJon; Jan 17, 2019 at 6:54 am
MarJon is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.