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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jul 22, 2019, 11:58 pm
  #736  
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: QDF
Programs: AA EXP (2MM), Marriott Tit
Posts: 1,034
Originally Posted by bpauker


absurd is the following:

EXP with 32k rolling EQD. I have been able to use zero EVIPs this year and have been upgraded exactly twice all year, both times on the coveted SJC-LAX route. And I requalified in April through Jan 2021. To be fair, I did get one upgrade on DFW-SJC but had to decline since I was with a companion and only one seat was available (we were 1 and 2 on the list out of 20+ people). After I complete my next AA trip this week, I’ll direct my spend elsewhere for the rest of the year and get status elsewhere since the biggest perk of status has been inaccessible so far.
DFW-based, I'm guessing.

That matches my experience last year, where I went 0/5, with about $25K EQD. (I did clear the CLT-RDU segment of DFW-CLT-RDU late in the year, but I called in an and un-upgraded myself.)

Fortunately, things appear to have improved a bit. I'm in the second week of DFW-MIA-GRU, GRU-MIA-DFW-PHL-PRG, PRG-PHL-DFW (in Brno right now), and all of the segments other than DFW-PHL cleared. Not sure how I would have survived spending all weekend traveling from Sao Paulo to Brno without at least one of the longhauls clearing (W to J)!
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Old Jul 23, 2019, 6:42 am
  #737  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EXP; Avis PC; Hertz PC; Marriott LT Gold; Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,133
7/25 MIA-LGA evening flight - companion and I cleared at T-100 with an email confirming. Comp EXP for me, stickers for companion.

Was pleasantly surprised to see this.
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Old Jul 23, 2019, 6:56 am
  #738  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EXP; Avis PC; Hertz PC; Marriott LT Gold; Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,133
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
C is the relevant inventory if you are looking to upgrade with a SWU or miles/copay. So if you're waitlisted for one of those, give AA a call and ask them to process the upgrade.

But C is not the relevant inventory if you're just looking for your EXP complimentary sticker/500mi/UDU upgrade (that is R, not viewable on EF with regards to upgrade space). Those can clear anytime from 100 hrs before right up to the gate. Even with a lot of seats open up front, it's very common for AA to wait till the day of departure before releasing any comp/sticker upgrade space.
WRT the bolded content, just to clarify, R is now viewable on EF, but it’s the revenue R bucket, not the upgrade R bucket. How closely the two are related I don’t know, but just wanted to mention this in case someone notices R on EF and wonders why their upgrade hasn’t cleared.
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Old Jul 24, 2019, 2:22 pm
  #739  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 29
Hi all! I posted on a different thread but was hoping to get a bit more insight as I'm still new to upgrades.

I will be traveling on AA193 LAX>HKG in October with a discounted economy ticket that I won through work. I plan to use 25k + copay to upgrade to business. How likely will this get cleared or am I just following a pipe dream? No status yet and will not for awhile as I just started my churning journey. It's a mid-week 12:55am flight on a Tuesday night.

Also wanted to add that I have called in to be waitlisted since they unsurprisingly don't have any availability ATM.

Last edited by mzsmiley; Jul 24, 2019 at 2:47 pm Reason: Additional context.
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Old Jul 24, 2019, 7:34 pm
  #740  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,447
Originally Posted by mzsmiley
Hi all! I posted on a different thread but was hoping to get a bit more insight as I'm still new to upgrades.

I will be traveling on AA193 LAX>HKG in October with a discounted economy ticket that I won through work. I plan to use 25k + copay to upgrade to business. How likely will this get cleared or am I just following a pipe dream? No status yet and will not for awhile as I just started my churning journey. It's a mid-week 12:55am flight on a Tuesday night.

Also wanted to add that I have called in to be waitlisted since they unsurprisingly don't have any availability ATM.
Midweek gives you the best bet of clearing, though October is still too far away for anyone to offer definitive, load-dependent insight for your flight. Best to check back in September with an exact flight date and those of us with EF subscriptions might be able to help.
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Old Jul 24, 2019, 8:57 pm
  #741  
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: ORD
Programs: AA EXP >3 Million miles,HH Lifetime Diamond
Posts: 2,887
Flew last week to DC. Ticketed Ord to dca but flights were cancelled both ways due to weather and atc holds. Upgrade on the way out cleared about t-24 and was preserved through two flight changes, one later the same day and another for the following morning with an airport change to bwi. On the return flew with a non status companion on a different pnr. Both of us were upgraded at about t-72. Flight was cancelled about 3 hours prior to scheduled departure and upgrades preserved with change to following day flights af again with airport change to bwi.
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Old Jul 28, 2019, 1:13 pm
  #742  
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 4
Traveling from Dallas to Barcelona in December. DFW-LHR-BCN outbound and BCN-JFK-DFW return. Was able to clear Miles/Copay upgrades for both DFW-LHR (AA50) and BCN-JFK (AA67) already. Impressed & Surprised.
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Old Jul 28, 2019, 3:19 pm
  #743  
 
Join Date: May 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: HH Diamond - Marriott Titanium- AA EP
Posts: 64
Originally Posted by mzsmiley
Hi all! I posted on a different thread but was hoping to get a bit more insight as I'm still new to upgrades.

I will be traveling on AA193 LAX>HKG in October with a discounted economy ticket that I won through work. I plan to use 25k + copay to upgrade to business. How likely will this get cleared or am I just following a pipe dream? No status yet and will not for awhile as I just started my churning journey. It's a mid-week 12:55am flight on a Tuesday night.

Also wanted to add that I have called in to be waitlisted since they unsurprisingly don't have any availability ATM.
I'm flying AA193 next month and received alert from EF that C space was available so I quickly called EP agent to reissue ticket with assigned seat number. After the email alert I went on EF to check on how many C space opened up and to my surprise I saw C5. It has been a LONG time since C space for this flight opened up a month before departure. Interesting enough the return flight on AA192 has't triggered any alerts.
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Old Jul 29, 2019, 2:45 am
  #744  
SCS
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 168
Originally Posted by A651346
I'm flying AA193 next month and received alert from EF that C space was available so I quickly called EP agent to reissue ticket with assigned seat number. After the email alert I went on EF to check on how many C space opened up and to my surprise I saw C5. It has been a LONG time since C space for this flight opened up a month before departure. Interesting enough the return flight on AA192 has't triggered any alerts.
Can you elaborate on how this process works? Were you on the waitlist before the space opened up? I was under the impression that when C space opened, they would clear upgrades from the waitlist into the newly opened space. But if that were true, there shouldn't be any advantage to calling as soon as EF notifies you...
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Old Jul 29, 2019, 5:29 am
  #745  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,442
Originally Posted by SCS
Can you elaborate on how this process works? Were you on the waitlist before the space opened up? I was under the impression that when C space opened, they would clear upgrades from the waitlist into the newly opened space. But if that were true, there shouldn't be any advantage to calling as soon as EF notifies you...
Upgrades do clear off the waitlist when C space is released, however the timing can vary. Sometimes it can be almost instantaneous, while other times there can be a lag of a few mins to a few hours. AA's upgrade waitlist system runs in batches and is not directly correlated to AA's revenue mgmt system releasing C space.

Those of us that have ExpertFlyer set up alerts for C space, and when it opens up you can call AA to have the upgrade processed immediately, rather than waiting for the waitlist to run its course. Some agents will clear you immediately, while others won't if they see you're already waitlisted.

This process with regards to waitlisting and watching C space on EF and calling in is nothing new and has been around for years. Take some time to peruse the dedicated SWU and miles/co-pay threads and you'll find lots of info and discussion.

FAQ: Miles + Copay Upgrade / Upgrades (master thread)

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/amer...l#post31348541
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Old Jul 29, 2019, 9:46 am
  #746  
 
Join Date: Jul 2019
Posts: 4
Does buying a premium economy seat make you more likely to get upgraded over someone who purchased a regular economy seat?

If I look at a flight and there are ~14 open business class seats, do they upgrade 14 people or try to sell to the last minute and leave some unsold/upgraded?

Do J seats eventually convert to C? Sorry new to this

Last edited by takeaseat; Jul 29, 2019 at 9:53 am
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Old Jul 29, 2019, 11:01 am
  #747  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,442
Originally Posted by takeaseat
Does buying a premium economy seat make you more likely to get upgraded over someone who purchased a regular economy seat?

If I look at a flight and there are ~14 open business class seats, do they upgrade 14 people or try to sell to the last minute and leave some unsold/upgraded?

Do J seats eventually convert to C? Sorry new to this
Welcome to FT. Premium Economy doesn't carry any priority over regular economy on the upgrade waitlist. And AA will definitely hold seats until the last minute in hopes of selling them, however if they don't sell then this space will ultimately be converted to C space (assuming everything is working properly).
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Old Jul 29, 2019, 11:40 am
  #748  
 
Join Date: Jul 2019
Posts: 4
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
Welcome to FT. Premium Economy doesn't carry any priority over regular economy on the upgrade waitlist. And AA will definitely hold seats until the last minute in hopes of selling them, however if they don't sell then this space will ultimately be converted to C space (assuming everything is working properly).
So basically, just get on the waitlist, and hope the day of I get bumped up? Is there anything else I can do by monitoring for C and calling them?
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Old Jul 29, 2019, 7:50 pm
  #749  
 
Join Date: May 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: HH Diamond - Marriott Titanium- AA EP
Posts: 64
Originally Posted by SCS
Can you elaborate on how this process works? Were you on the waitlist before the space opened up? I was under the impression that when C space opened, they would clear upgrades from the waitlist into the newly opened space. But if that were true, there shouldn't be any advantage to calling as soon as EF notifies you...
Yes I was already wait listed to use my SWU and wanted EP agent to process immediately with the confirm seat I wanted. The post above from JJeffrey provides more insight on why personally I like to have it processed versus having wait listed SWU "run its course."

Thanks JJeffrey for the detailed explanation!
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Old Jul 30, 2019, 1:19 pm
  #750  
 
Join Date: Jul 2019
Programs: AA Plat, Marriott Bonvoy Gold
Posts: 3
Smile Inaugural post

I've been a long time lurker on this forum; figured it's time to contribute now that I've achieved some very minor status with AA. Attained Gold in mid-June and wanted to provide my upgrade stats for some data points; I believe this is the correct thread. In general, I have to say I am surprised by how much success I've had as a Gold after reading through so many tales of upgrade woe, even for EPs. Though to be fair, two of these I technically used a companion's platinum status being booked on their reservation, if I understand the PNR linking correctly. Overall I'm 4 of 7:

CLT - HSV on a CR7 I believe: Cleared at 24 hours
HSV - CLT, same: Cleared at 24
RDU - LGA, on an E190: Cleared at 48 hours (adopted wife's platinum status, as we booked under her account)
LGA - RDU, on an E190: Cleared at 48, same as above

My misses were PHL -RDU and RDU - CLT and the return CLT - RDU.
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