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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 17, 2019, 6:56 am
  #91  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Earth
Programs: AA - EXP 1MM, Marriott/SPG Plat, Hilton Gold, BA, DL, TWA Royal Ambassador
Posts: 309
Originally Posted by econometrics
Ours has been ticketed and I never had to confirm CC info or talk to an agent about it, so I’m not sure about that. I suppose I’ll find out at check in, but we are traveling with an infant... so the physically check in will be necessary regardless of the upgrade.
I would call the EXP desk to confirm and offer the CC info.... wouldn't wait until check in........
MarJon is offline  
Old Jan 17, 2019, 7:20 am
  #92  
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Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: NYC
Posts: 27,230
Originally Posted by KKinLA
Just out of curiosity, how did you arrive at those percentages?
My magic black box.

Flying LAX-GRU AA 215 on 2/22/19. I am Plat in Premium Economy and waitlisted with Miles+Copay. There are currently 11 open seats on seat map. What are the chances with this one?
0%, you might want to double-check your reservation.
ijgordon is offline  
Old Jan 17, 2019, 7:47 am
  #93  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PHX
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 1,461
Another data point...

Booked in W on AA50 DFW-LHR on Jan 18. Chose this flight when I bought the ticket a few weeks ago as J was wide open with more than 25 empty seats in the seatmap. No C availability at booking so waitlisted with an SWU.

J has remained relatively open since then so I had little doubt I would eventually clear. Checked just prior to T-36 and just prior to T-35 and it still showed C0. Jumped to C7 about one minute after T-35. Called the EXP desk about 15 minutes later to confirm the upgrade as window seats were getting scarce.

Inventory stayed at C7 for almost 2 hours after that and is now down to C1. Suggests a longish delay from inventory availability to automatic processing of the waitlist.

My EF notification came through about 45 minutes after inventory opened up.

If you’re on the waitlist it’s definitely worth rechecking inventory around the T-36 mark or shortly after.
andrewp is offline  
Old Jan 17, 2019, 8:53 am
  #94  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,673
Originally Posted by andrewp
Booked in W on AA50 DFW-LHR on Jan 18. Chose this flight when I bought the ticket a few weeks ago as J was wide open with more than 25 empty seats in the seatmap. No C availability at booking so waitlisted with an SWU.
Slightly off-topic, but I would almost never use a SWU on a W fare, since a miles upgrade on a W fare is just 15000 niles and no copay. I prefer to use my SWU's to avoid copays.
SeattleDavid is offline  
Old Jan 17, 2019, 9:22 am
  #95  
 
Join Date: May 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: HH Diamond - Marriott Titanium- AA EP
Posts: 64
AA Lax-Hkg 193

Hi FT community,

What are your thoughts on SWU clearing for this flight....

I have confirmed PE seat and have been waitlisted for C space since booking about 2 weeks ago. Any data points on chances of this clearing?

EXP w/ 25k rolling EQD

thx!

sorry attached didn’t upload for 2/7 flight.
A651346 is offline  
Old Jan 17, 2019, 9:46 am
  #96  
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Join Date: Apr 2001
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Posts: 27,230
Originally Posted by SeattleDavid
Slightly off-topic, but I would almost never use a SWU on a W fare, since a miles upgrade on a W fare is just 15000 niles and no copay. I prefer to use my SWU's to avoid copays.
I suspect there's a chance the poster was using "W" to refer to the cabin, not the booking class, but yes, if booked in actual W, I'd go for the mileage upgrade, unless of course I had an expiring SWU with no other need for it.
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Old Jan 17, 2019, 12:28 pm
  #97  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: PHX
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 1,461
Originally Posted by SeattleDavid
Slightly off-topic, but I would almost never use a SWU on a W fare, since a miles upgrade on a W fare is just 15000 niles and no copay. I prefer to use my SWU's to avoid copays.
DUH... it was a P fare. Not sure why I spaced that earlier. Upgrade would have been 25,000 miles plus $350.
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Old Jan 17, 2019, 12:50 pm
  #98  
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Programs: AA Plat, Bonvoy Lifetime Plat, AC 25k, HHonors Gold, Amex Plat
Posts: 19
Flying LAX-HKG this weekend (AA 193, 1/19/19, 11:50 pm). I am using my EXP cousin's SWU, but it has yet to clear. There are currently 14 open seats in Business. Been checking Expert Flyer for weeks, but C space has never opened up. Below are the fare buckets as of this morning on Expert Flyer. What do these say about the chances of clearing, both before and after arriving at the airport? I am Platinum myself, to the extent that matters. Thanks!

F0 A0 J7 R7 D7 I4 W1 P0 Y5 B0 H2 K1
M0 L0 G5 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0
simondad is offline  
Old Jan 17, 2019, 1:19 pm
  #99  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
Originally Posted by simondad
Flying LAX-HKG this weekend (AA 193, 1/19/19, 11:50 pm). I am using my EXP cousin's SWU, but it has yet to clear. There are currently 14 open seats in Business. Been checking Expert Flyer for weeks, but C space has never opened up. Below are the fare buckets as of this morning on Expert Flyer. What do these say about the chances of clearing, both before and after arriving at the airport? I am Platinum myself, to the extent that matters. Thanks!

F0 A0 J7 R7 D7 I4 W1 P0 Y5 B0 H2 K1
M0 L0 G5 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0
There's still a (small) chance for the upgrade to go through since Miles/co-pay and SWU's are at the top of the pecking order for processing upgrades. Good Luck!! I've had success upgrading for past two years on this flight as an EXP using SWU's. Closest call I've had for the upgrade to be processed was at 48 hrs. before departure.
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Old Jan 17, 2019, 1:26 pm
  #100  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
So I logged in for my flight tomorrow (DFW-SFO) and noticed that I "lost" my paid F seat in the mini-cabin of the 788.

All of the seats in the replacement (788) aircraft are "occupied". Apparently this version of the 788 scheduled for tomorrow has PE seating. My reservations still indicated that I'm F and that my seat will be assigned at the airport. I'm just hopeful that AA doesn't send me to PE or Y because the upgrades they've handed out already stick over a paid F seat. But then again, maybe they've blocked all the seats as there's a chance that perhaps the aircraft may revert back to one that has the J-mini cabin.

Nonetheless, what do they do if there are more paid F seats sold than can be accommodated? I've not experienced them bumping upgrades. More likely I'm sent to Y and refunded $$ and given miles... Sucks!!
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Old Jan 17, 2019, 1:51 pm
  #101  
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: PHL
Programs: Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, AA Gold, FB Gold, ITA Volare Executive
Posts: 3,294
Follow-up

Appreciate all of the discussion and information:

Originally Posted by econometrics
Data point:

AA61 DFW-NRT on 1 Feb
My wife and I were upgraded on 13 Jan using Miles+Copy from PE. Bought the ticket early September and were waitlisted since.

Didn't get an EF alert, either. Only noticed when I refreshed our trip in the app and saw we did not have assigned seats.

I'm EXP with about 20K rolling EQD this time of year.
Originally Posted by Biggie Fries
So, a couple of questions... both of which assume that your seats now reflect your upgrade
  1. Have they already taken your miles and charged your credit card?
  2. Did the date marked ticketed change on your on-line reservation?
As noted somewhere up above, a couple of weeks ago I got an upgrade from PE to J, for a March flight. Like you, I wasn't notified; I noticed on-line (computer, not on App) that seats had gone missing in PE. Called in. Confirmed mileage account and credit card. Now shows on-line as us sitting in J. But no miles have left the account and nothing, not even pending, has hit the credit card. I'm wondering if this is normal; and if it is not normal, then what? TIA.
Originally Posted by econometrics
I called in to add an infant to the record, and they didn't mention anything about confirming my card to charge the copay and deduct the miles.

I did have a miles+copay clear within T24 LHR-DFW back in October, and those miles and the $350 were never charged to me for that one. But that could have been an LHR station error.

When I log into my account, in the reservation it still shows the upgrades as "Requested" and not "Confirmed", as it usually does when you clear. So I'm not sure what's up with AA's system on this right now. My card hasn't been hit, nor my miles deducted as of yet... 5 days later.
Originally Posted by SeattleDavid
Ticketing can be slow, especially if the flight is a ways out - but if it takes more than a week then the credit card authorization is often lost, which means nothing will happen until you call in again or try to check in online (which won't be allowed since the upgrade won't have been ticketed).

If it has been more than a week, then call them again and give the credit card info again.
Originally Posted by econometrics


Ours has been ticketed and I never had to confirm CC info or talk to an agent about it, so I’m not sure about that. I suppose I’ll find out at check in, but we are traveling with an infant... so the physically check in will be necessary regardless of the upgrade.
Originally Posted by MarJon
I would call the EXP desk to confirm and offer the CC info.... wouldn't wait until check in........
Although my seats were showing as upgraded and the ticket was showing as ticketed, the date of the ticketing was the original purchase date. So I bit the bullet and asked about this reservation when I was calling in about something else earlier today. The CSR could see that the miles deduction and co-payment had not gone through. She said that this would not have ended well, and pushed the deduction and payment through the system. My seat arrangements held, and I got an e-mail notification (receipt). My trip now shows the ticketing date as today (not November when original PE seats were purchased.

Moral? As advised above, call at some point if the payments don't go through, even if a quick glance shows "ticketed" and the seats you want seem to have been given to you. Is it possible that if I had not called in, that I could have checked-in on-line, shown up at the airport and flown, being less poor by 45,000 miles (10% credit card discount!) and $700? Possibly, but the thought of not getting the upgrade and maybe even getting dumped further in the back on a trip with spouse means that I won't be the DP for that one. (If it had been just me, might have taken the chance... ). I did take the opportunity to move the $700 (2x$350) to the Chase RC Visa, since seat upgrades are one of the few legit things one can claim for the card's $300 annual travel credit. Takes the edge off disappointment of maybe having kicked back an airline-makes-error-in-your-favor freebie.
Biggie Fries is offline  
Old Jan 17, 2019, 1:56 pm
  #102  
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 222
Originally Posted by simondad
Flying LAX-HKG this weekend (AA 193, 1/19/19, 11:50 pm). I am using my EXP cousin's SWU, but it has yet to clear. There are currently 14 open seats in Business. Been checking Expert Flyer for weeks, but C space has never opened up. Below are the fare buckets as of this morning on Expert Flyer. What do these say about the chances of clearing, both before and after arriving at the airport? I am Platinum myself, to the extent that matters. Thanks!

F0 A0 J7 R7 D7 I4 W1 P0 Y5 B0 H2 K1
M0 L0 G5 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0
I would say your chances are slim to none. The reason being is that the flight is heavily sold in economy and most likely oversold in the back. In addition AA now undercuts all the competition fares on this route (albeit you get what you pay for). What I have noticed recently is that on this route as well as other high volume international routes is that AA is trying at all costs to maximize last minute revenue at the expense of upgrades. For example I have noticed deep discount economy and business fares now opening up with in less than a week. Couple that with new married segment rules that AA is trying to enforce across the board and it all equates to these ultra long haul Asia Pacific international upgrades becoming a thing of the past. Even worse, starting this month and what I suspect is due to the enforcement of married segments the opportunity for those to jump the wait list is back. I have seen C space open up for married segments (for example JFK-LAX-HKG) but not for the LAX-HKG and hence if you are only wait listed for LAX-HKG because you are not originating in New York you can be skipped. On the flip side I have had this work in my favor also by having a rep manually force an upgrade if the C inventory is showing. I escalated this new issue with in American and it's definitely unintended but AA has no expectation as to when it will be fixed. Kind of like a few years back when 500 mile advance processing of upgrades was broken for months.
FleyeSkyHigh is offline  
Old Jan 17, 2019, 3:46 pm
  #103  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: AA Exec Plat, DL Plat (but not for long)
Posts: 175
Originally Posted by ijgordon
My magic black box.

0%, you might want to double-check your reservation.
I assume you mean the date? I accidentally typed 2/22/19. My flight is 1/22/19. Any insight into upgrade possibilities or still 0?
KKinLA is offline  
Old Jan 17, 2019, 4:18 pm
  #104  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 214
Deleted
Finsup72 is offline  
Old Jan 17, 2019, 4:20 pm
  #105  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 214
Originally Posted by simondad
Flying LAX-HKG this weekend (AA 193, 1/19/19, 11:50 pm). I am using my EXP cousin's SWU, but it has yet to clear. There are currently 14 open seats in Business. Been checking Expert Flyer for weeks, but C space has never opened up.
Originally Posted by Zacnlinc
There's still a (small) chance for the upgrade to go through since Miles/co-pay and SWU's are at the top of the pecking order for processing upgrades. Good Luck!!
All upgrades on this route are SWU or co-pay + miles, so your status and EQD spend are the primary factors in the upgrade list
Finsup72 is offline  


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