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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old May 8, 2019, 6:46 pm
  #511  
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 26
Put my SWU in two months ago but havent seen a peep on my EF alert. Seat map shows 3 open business and 1 blocked seat. Are these truly empty or is it possible theyre sold out but just unassigned?

a rep on the phone said business is sold out, but when I went to AA.com and pretended to buy a business class on that flight, it said 3 available, which is exactly as many open seats as shown on EF not including the blocked seat

Last edited by JDiver; May 9, 2019 at 3:13 am Reason: Merge consecutive posts
noobalert is offline  
Old May 8, 2019, 7:12 pm
  #512  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
Why chance a D upgrade fare into F when the I fare is cheaper?

I'm trying to assist a friend with getting a flight to STI and meeting resistance as to why the D fare flight for F (option #2 ) is more expensive than the I fare flight (option #1 ) when both flights are exactly the same otherwise.

Any tips/comments would be greatly appreciated.
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Zacnlinc is offline  
Old May 8, 2019, 7:17 pm
  #513  
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Midwest USA
Programs: BA SIL, WN A, UA SIL, Marriott TIT (LT), Hilton DIA
Posts: 1,969
Originally Posted by noobalert
a rep on the phone said business is sold out, but when I went to AA.com and pretended to buy a business class on that flight, it said 3 available, which is exactly as many open seats as shown on EF not including the blocked seat
did the rep say "business is sold out" or "business is not available"? The latter could have been in reference to an SWU upgrade.
nachosdelux is offline  
Old May 8, 2019, 7:22 pm
  #514  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Originally Posted by Zacnlinc
Why chance a D upgrade fare into F when the I fare is cheaper?

I'm trying to assist a friend with getting a flight to STI and meeting resistance as to why the D fare flight for F (option #2 ) is more expensive than the I fare flight (option #1 ) when both flights are exactly the same otherwise.

Any tips/comments would be greatly appreciated.
D is a higher fare class than I, even though both are Business/First. So no surprise that D would be more expensive than I. (And in your particular case, I'm not surprised EWR has I availability, while LGA only has D.)

In general, there's no real reason to choose a D fare over an I fare, all else equal. There are usually fewer I seats available on a given flight, so I is not always available for flights that you want. It also might be easier to do a same-day confirmed change with a D fare, and a D fare might have less restrictive rules.
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flyingeph12 is offline  
Old May 8, 2019, 7:23 pm
  #515  
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Dallas, Texas
Programs: AA Exp. Bonvoy Gold, Hilton Gold, IHG Platinum.
Posts: 1,186
That flight is J4 F1 so probably 3 or 4 seats left in J (they sometimes oversell) and 1 in F.
MorganB is offline  
Old May 8, 2019, 7:53 pm
  #516  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: KHOU/KIAH
Programs: AA EXP | Marriott Bonvoy Titanium| Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 11,245
If the flight is J3, there is a near zero percent chance it will clear before T48 (and honestly, closer to T24 if not the gate)
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Antarius is offline  
Old May 8, 2019, 7:53 pm
  #517  
 
Join Date: May 2017
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 369
Originally Posted by flyingeph12
D is a higher fare class than I, even though both are Business/First. So no surprise that D would be more expensive than I. (And in your particular case, I'm not surprised EWR has I availability, while LGA only has D.)

In general, there's no real reason to choose a D fare over an I fare, all else equal. There are usually fewer I seats available on a given flight, so I is not always available for flights that you want. It also might be easier to do a same-day confirmed change with a D fare, and a D fare might have less restrictive rules.
One other reason to choose a D fare over an I fare is (if it's a three-class aircraft and) the passenger intends to upgrade to F with miles, there's no copay as D counts as full-fare. Never mind, though, if the difference between I and D is greater than $550.

For this itinerary, yeah, no reason to choose D over I.
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potus18 is offline  
Old May 8, 2019, 8:30 pm
  #518  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
Deleted.... Looks Like I quoted the wrong post after my post.

@flyingeph12 & @potus18 Thanks... I guess that's my friend's sweet spot of habit. And it's news to me indeed. I would have just selected the I fare as the "cheaper" fare and not thought more of the matter since the flights were exactly the same except a flight # change for some reason.

Last edited by Zacnlinc; May 8, 2019 at 8:44 pm Reason: updated content
Zacnlinc is offline  
Old May 8, 2019, 9:16 pm
  #519  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Programs: AAdvantage EXP, Marriott Ambassador (LT Titanium)
Posts: 94
Hey All - I'm going LA to London and am looking for thoughts/advice on SWU upgrade chances Y>J between the following options:

Option 1: LAX-PHX-LHR
AA194 - 772 (37 J)

Option 2: LAX-DFW-LHR
AA50 - 77W (45 J)

I'm wondering if the relative newness of the PHX-LHR route means it could be less popular (but maybe more popular?). Also wondering if the elite heavy Dallas offsets the extra J seats in the 77W. This is for summer by the way, August 23rd, which is a Friday.

Any thoughts are much appreciated. Thanks!

-Sam

Last edited by sam2k2002; May 8, 2019 at 9:39 pm
sam2k2002 is offline  
Old May 8, 2019, 9:23 pm
  #520  
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 26
Originally Posted by nachosdelux
did the rep say "business is sold out" or "business is not available"? The latter could have been in reference to an SWU upgrade.
Two agents said business was sold out.
noobalert is offline  
Old May 8, 2019, 10:15 pm
  #521  
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Dallas, Texas
Programs: AA Exp. Bonvoy Gold, Hilton Gold, IHG Platinum.
Posts: 1,186
Originally Posted by noobalert
Two agents said business was sold out.
It's not. There is inventory.
MorganB is offline  
Old May 8, 2019, 11:09 pm
  #522  
 
Join Date: May 2015
Location: LAX
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 179
Originally Posted by noobalert
Two agents said business was sold out.
What is your routing? The only direct flight I see from ORD-->NRT on 5/12 is on JL. While you can purchase an AA codeshare, you can't use your SWU on non AA metal.
dciolli is offline  
Old May 9, 2019, 12:22 am
  #523  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: KHOU/KIAH
Programs: AA EXP | Marriott Bonvoy Titanium| Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 11,245
Originally Posted by dciolli
What is your routing? The only direct flight I see from ORD-->NRT on 5/12 is on JL. While you can purchase an AA codeshare, you can't use your SWU on non AA metal.
great catch! ^

I checked EF and neither DFW nor LAX to NRT are showing J3 too. The plot thickens...
Antarius is offline  
Old May 10, 2019, 1:33 am
  #524  
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: The OC, DC, RIC
Programs: AA Plat, Marriott Platinum, Hertz Presidential Circle
Posts: 136
DFW to ICN Chances

Hi Everyone-

I'm traveling from DFW to ICN on 5/29 on a 787 (30 J seats) and there are 8 seats left in J. I've never not had an SWU clear but I think this is the first time I've really been sweating it out. Any thoughts on chances this one clears?
saleen22 is offline  
Old May 10, 2019, 1:43 am
  #525  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: KHOU/KIAH
Programs: AA EXP | Marriott Bonvoy Titanium| Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 11,245
Originally Posted by saleen22
Hi Everyone-

I'm traveling from DFW to ICN on 5/29 on a 787 (30 J seats) and there are 8 seats left in J. I've never not had an SWU clear but I think this is the first time I've really been sweating it out. Any thoughts on chances this one clears?
the date helps you (Wednesday) , but it's really too far out/unknown to estimate.

EF only goes to J7. How do you know there are 8 seats?
Antarius is offline  


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