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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)


Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017




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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Feb 1, 2019, 6:28 pm
  #166  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
Originally Posted by jcatman
Ticket purchased on 12.14.18, booked into Premium Economy. Hoping for upgrade to J.

Outbound 1.27.19, LAX-HKG #193 . SWU Waitlisted.

Return 1.29.19, HKG-LAX #192 . SWU Waitlisted.

Expert Flyer notifications set.

Outbound upgrade cleared 24 hours before flight. Mini-cabin available in J. ^

Return flight.......nothing. Was #3 on the upgrade list out of 6. As boarding commenced, #2 cleared. At least I had eaten at The Haven inside CX Wing lounge.

Twelve hours in Premium Economy not too bad. The overall seat comfort is fine, but my neck is killing me. Lack of storage at the seat and in overhead bins (compared to J) is significant. Very important to get on "the bus" early if you want your luggage to be near your seat during the flight. Saw lots of passengers "swimming upstream" as we deplaned. Never saw a line or significant wait for the toilet until 30 minutes before landing.
Wow!! Not clearing as EXP on a Tue HKG-LAX... Interesting to say the least. I'm off on my own journey in two weeks. Hoping the waitlist clears earlier than your experiences. Glad the PE seats were tolerable at least.

Cheers!
Zacnlinc is offline  
Old Feb 2, 2019, 5:04 am
  #167  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
T-100 hr. upgrade cleared on SFO-JFK. They've been offering C space on the flight for the past three weeks too. Was tempted to use one, but glad I held out as well.
Zacnlinc is offline  
Old Feb 2, 2019, 10:53 am
  #168  
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 222
Originally Posted by Zacnlinc
Wow!! Not clearing as EXP on a Tue HKG-LAX... Interesting to say the least. I'm off on my own journey in two weeks. Hoping the waitlist clears earlier than your experiences. Glad the PE seats were tolerable at least.

Cheers!
Actually since beginning of the year it's been par for the course with for me....esp on LAX-HKG. Something has definitely changed. Easily clearing LAX-HKG and HKG-LAX mid-week (Tue, Wed, Thu) which use to be relatively easy is no longer and not exactly sure why. I have heard several theories having to do with highly competitive last minute discounted business fares being offered by both AA and CX (as a code share) to AA accommodating oversold CX flights. In nearly all six of my LAX to or from HKG flights this year the flights were all J7 and open seat map until 5-7 days prior to flight and then J goes down to a few or zero and seat map fills up at T-48. In all the days I have missed it (I am EXP with around 25K last 12-month EQD) I have seen maybe one or two clear on the airport and the upgrade list at 20-30 strong.

In fact, I just switch last week to the HKG-DFW and DFW-HKG flights and in my limited observation AA125/AA126 are now easier to clear that HKG-LAX.

Again, not to sure exactly why but all fingers point to it having something to do with code-sharing or cross selling or competitive pricing to CX.
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FleyeSkyHigh is offline  
Old Feb 2, 2019, 12:30 pm
  #169  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Programs: American EXP; British Airways Gold
Posts: 1,896
Originally Posted by Zacnlinc
Wow!! Not clearing as EXP on a Tue HKG-LAX... Interesting to say the least. I'm off on my own journey in two weeks. Hoping the waitlist clears earlier than your experiences. Glad the PE seats were tolerable at least.

Cheers!
The PE seats are definitely an upgrade from Y. The service from FA's is not. They are overwhelmed with the sheer number of passengers in the rear of that 77W.

Good luck with your upgrades.
Zacnlinc likes this.
jcatman is offline  
Old Feb 2, 2019, 2:24 pm
  #170  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
Originally Posted by FleyeSkyHigh
Actually since beginning of the year it's been par for the course with for me....esp on LAX-HKG. Something has definitely changed. Easily clearing LAX-HKG and HKG-LAX mid-week (Tue, Wed, Thu) which use to be relatively easy is no longer and not exactly sure why. I have heard several theories having to do with highly competitive last minute discounted business fares being offered by both AA and CX (as a code share) to AA accommodating oversold CX flights. In nearly all six of my LAX to or from HKG flights this year the flights were all J7 and open seat map until 5-7 days prior to flight and then J goes down to a few or zero and seat map fills up at T-48. In all the days I have missed it (I am EXP with around 25K last 12-month EQD) I have seen maybe one or two clear on the airport and the upgrade list at 20-30 strong.

In fact, I just switch last week to the HKG-DFW and DFW-HKG flights and in my limited observation AA125/AA126 are now easier to clear that HKG-LAX.

Again, not to sure exactly why but all fingers point to it having something to do with code-sharing or cross selling or competitive pricing to CX.
Thanks for the heads-up on this matter... Will keep and eye out on things in the coming days. Maybe it time to hold out myself for upselling my reservation into J if there's a deal to be had then apply the SWU.
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Old Feb 2, 2019, 2:27 pm
  #171  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
Originally Posted by jcatman
The PE seats are definitely an upgrade from Y. The service from FA's is not. They are overwhelmed with the sheer number of passengers in the rear of that 77W.

Good luck with your upgrades.
I've heard this exact sentiment as well. Too bad they don't have at least 2 FA that are just dedicated to PE. The pricing aa.com is asking for this fare class is insane at times. Especially for flights connecting to it as often the tickets are at full Y fare class. Sometime more expensive than J or F fares!
Zacnlinc is offline  
Old Feb 2, 2019, 8:03 pm
  #172  
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: South Florida, USA
Programs: AA PPRO (OW Emerarld), BA Silver, DL PM
Posts: 491
Flying DFW-HKG on Monday, 4 February with SWU waitlisted. Just checked EF and finally the flight is C7 (all of the flights this last week have been wide open and go to C7 48 hours in advance). Call exp desk and she says there is no availability. ...? Not really worried as the cabin is not even half full but just don't get the lack of logic.
rollthere is offline  
Old Feb 2, 2019, 8:19 pm
  #173  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
Originally Posted by rollthere
Flying DFW-HKG on Monday, 4 February with SWU waitlisted. Just checked EF and finally the flight is C7 (all of the flights this last week have been wide open and go to C7 48 hours in advance). Call exp desk and she says there is no availability. ...? Not really worried as the cabin is not even half full but just don't get the lack of logic.
I'm confused by your statement. I just checked EF and see that for your flight C0 is for the flight. What's available is: F2 A2 J7 R7 D7 I7 W7 P7 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7

Were you intending to me that the "Biz" cabin selection (J, R, D, and I) have been at 7's?
Zacnlinc is offline  
Old Feb 2, 2019, 8:26 pm
  #174  
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: DCA/IAD/WAS
Programs: MAR AMB, WOH Explorist, AA EXP, UA 2P
Posts: 2,138
Originally Posted by Zacnlinc
I'm confused by your statement. I just checked EF and see that for your flight C0 is for the flight. What's available is: F2 A2 J7 R7 D7 I7 W7 P7 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7

Were you intending to me that the "Biz" cabin selection (J, R, D, and I) have been at 7's?
I'm bored watching TV, so I looked too - if you look at a connection, say DCA-DFW-HKG, the flight shows C7, but alone shows C0. I know married segments don't exist with upgrade space, so it's just phantom availability of some sort.
iadisgreat is offline  
Old Feb 3, 2019, 6:13 am
  #175  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,479
Originally Posted by rollthere
Flying DFW-HKG on Monday, 4 February with SWU waitlisted. Just checked EF and finally the flight is C7 (all of the flights this last week have been wide open and go to C7 48 hours in advance). Call exp desk and she says there is no availability. ...? Not really worried as the cabin is not even half full but just don't get the lack of logic.
Originally Posted by iadisgreat
I'm bored watching TV, so I looked too - if you look at a connection, say DCA-DFW-HKG, the flight shows C7, but alone shows C0. I know married segments don't exist with upgrade space, so it's just phantom availability of some sort.
Yea that's a very well known ExpertFlyer "issue" that when searching connections the AA system sometimes returns bogus false positives for C space.

Nevertheless DFW-HKG on Monday is now truly C7, so I would call AA back and get the upgrade processed.
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JJeffrey is online now  
Old Feb 3, 2019, 10:50 am
  #176  
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: South Florida, USA
Programs: AA PPRO (OW Emerarld), BA Silver, DL PM
Posts: 491
I finally got my EF email at 3 AM and also woke up to see that the upgrade had cleared. I'm quite familiar with the married segment logic for revenue tickets but really never even thought that they would use the same illogical conditions for releasing upgrade inventory. I'm flying MIA-DFW-HKG and yes, last night the married segment search showed C7 availability on the DFW-HKG segment. Maybe we can address that issue with expert flyer that they are displaying available inventory on married segments but AA is only releasing seats based on their single segment inventory. Revenue management at its finest…
rollthere is offline  
Old Feb 3, 2019, 11:39 am
  #177  
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: DCA/IAD/WAS
Programs: MAR AMB, WOH Explorist, AA EXP, UA 2P
Posts: 2,138
Originally Posted by rollthere
I finally got my EF email at 3 AM and also woke up to see that the upgrade had cleared. I'm quite familiar with the married segment logic for revenue tickets but really never even thought that they would use the same illogical conditions for releasing upgrade inventory. I'm flying MIA-DFW-HKG and yes, last night the married segment search showed C7 availability on the DFW-HKG segment. Maybe we can address that issue with expert flyer that they are displaying available inventory on married segments but AA is only releasing seats based on their single segment inventory. Revenue management at its finest…
I think ExpertFlyer has previously said that AA is returning the results when queried this way, so not much they can do but suggest searching by segment.
iadisgreat is offline  
Old Feb 3, 2019, 12:00 pm
  #178  
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: L. A./ N. Y.
Programs: Exec Plat; 2.7 m miles
Posts: 44
Both Mrs. Vernon and I are EXP.
Jan 7 - AA 238 LAX to JFK, no upgrade.
Jan 22 - AA 341 JFK to LAX, both upgraded at 100 hours.
Feb 1 - AA 238 LAX to JFK, both upgraded at 100 hours and both upgraded to F at the gate. Not sure why we were picked for the gate upgrade instead of other passengers who paid full fare for J (not that we are complaining).
Nile_US likes this.
JohnVernon is offline  
Old Feb 3, 2019, 1:07 pm
  #179  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,479
Originally Posted by rollthere
I'm quite familiar with the married segment logic for revenue tickets but really never even thought that they would use the same illogical conditions for releasing upgrade inventory. I'm flying MIA-DFW-HKG and yes, last night the married segment search showed C7 availability on the DFW-HKG segment. Maybe we can address that issue with expert flyer that they are displaying available inventory on married segments but AA is only releasing seats based on their single segment inventory. Revenue management at its finest…
Originally Posted by iadisgreat
I think ExpertFlyer has previously said that AA is returning the results when queried this way, so not much they can do but suggest searching by segment.
Yep, EF is well aware of the issue and has said over and over that when searching connections AA's system will sometimes return garbage results. It's just imperative to search segment by segment as this solves everything. AA definitely doesn't release married segment C space, any positive C space you may see when searching a connection is 100% invalid if the flight is C0 when looking at the segment by itself.
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Old Feb 4, 2019, 12:15 pm
  #180  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Programs: AA EXP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 394
Odds of clearing NRT out of ORD? Do those usually clear or what is the experience for that.
chitink is offline  


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