Mar 12, 2019, 12:03 pm
Last edit by: JDiver
This thread is dedicated to the effect on AA from the October 29, 2018 and March 10, 2019 crashes if two Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia, respectively.
To discuss the probable and limited return of the Boeing MAX to service with AA at the end of 2020 and increasingly in 2021, please see
American Planning 737 MAX Service Restoration (Limited Dec and 2021)
To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one?
13 March 2019: All US airline Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. AA has removed all 737 MAX 8 from scheduling through... “Based on the latest guidance, the airline anticipates that the resumption of scheduled commercial service on American’s fleet of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft will occur (limited schedule Dec 2020).
Who we are: FlyerTalk features discussions and chat boards that covers the most up-to-date traveler information; an interactive community dedicated to the topic of travel (not politics or arguments about politics or religion, etc.)
All travelers are welcome in the community. Just choose a forum: conversing about airlines and their programs, airports, destinations, dining and how to make the most of your miles and points, or visit our Information Desk to start.
We do have some Rules, and everyone agrees to abide by these when they are granted free membership privileges. On a topic that generates a lot of feelings and perspectives, please remember "welcoming, respectful" are key words on FlyerTalk.
As with previous incident threads, please observe the following in this thread:
1. The normal FT Rules apply. (Including not discussing moderation actions on-thread). And please be particularly attentive to "discussing the idea and not the poster" when you have a disagreement. Civility and mutual respect are still expected and are what we owe each other as a community.
2. You are expected to respect our diversity, and therefore refrain from posting inflammatory comments about race, religion, culture, politics, ethnicity, orientation, etc." Do not cite, copy, or report on such.
3. Please do continue to be attentive to the sensibilities of the families of those on the flight. Think about if you were them what you would and would not want to see posted. Reasonable speculation about what happened is permissible; please, though, do not indulge in inflammatory or overly-lurid descriptions or depictions (or links to same) that could well be hurtful.
4. Overly / extravagantly exaggerative posts such as conspiracy theories, posts beyond the realm of science and known facts, etc. as well as posts with information that has been posted several times previously may be summarily deleted. Moderator actions may not be discussed in posts on FlyerTalk.
5. FlyerTalk complies with international copyright agreements. Please do not post full copyrighted articles; summarize the salient points, cite properly and post links. Entire copyrighted articles will be summarily deleted.
6. In addition, those who repeatedly fail to comply with FlyerTalk Rules or the guidelines for this thread may be subjected to FlyerTalk disciplinary actions and have membership privileges suspended, forum masks, etc.
The thread regarding the 10 March 2019 Ethiopian Airlines ET 302 737 MAX 8 crash out of Adis Ababa is Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]. Link.
The thread regarding the 29 October 2018 Lion Air JT 610 737 MAX 8 crash out of Jakarta is Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed
. Link.
The best narrative and information available is probably the Aviation Herald’s Crash: Lion B38M near Jakarta on Oct 29th 2018, aircraft lost height and crashed into Java Sea, wrong AoA data, by Simon Hradecky, created Friday, Oct 25th 2019 13:35Z, last updated Friday, Oct 25th 2019 16:05Z. Link.
American Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (7M8) with options for 60 more. The first 737 MAX -8 flew at the assembly facility in Renton, WAshington, USA on 29 Jan 2016. Deliveries to AA commenced in late in 2017, with four delivered in 2017,16 more during 2018, with 20 more to be delivered during 2019. IATA code B38M; AA code "7M8".
Link to the story of how 737 MAX’ birth in the DFW Admirals Club and the forces that shaped it.
29 October 2018: Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for the previous three flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
7 November 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US airlines 30 days to comply with the AD.
7 November 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced in this post.
See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.
10 March 10, 2019: An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.
10 March 10, 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
A revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in May, 2019.
11 March 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet.
11 March 2019: the US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, AS, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
11 March 2019: AA APFA Flight Attendant union spokesperson asked AA to ground the MAX 8s. (TPG)
11 March 2019: AA pilots through their APA union have requested passengers allow the investigators do their work and refrain from jumping to conclusions. “We caution against speculation about what may have caused this tragic accident,” the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement. (TPG)
12 March 2019: The nation members of the European Union, the United Kingdom and several other nations ban their airlines’ operation, and other airlines’ overflight or flights, of the B38M aircraft. Link to New York Times article.
12 March 2019: Other USA airlines operating 737 MAX aircraft (of all types) are United (UA), Southwest (WN). AS has ordered the MAX 9, but deliveries have not yet been made.
Link to The Points Guy “how to tell if you’re flying a 737 MAX 8” article
13 March 2019: American Airlines pilots’ union APA issues statement in support of the AA B38M: “The AA APA spokesman says AA's MAX 8s have additional indicators on the planes, which others do not have. He says they're the only ones equipped with TWO AOA displays - one for each pilot. This, I guess, is why AA feels they can keep flying the MAX 8. The spokesman said he felt UA and SW (WN) were getting these added to their MAX planes. “ - Econometrics
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/1...ilot-says.html
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38M aircraft. The US is the sole remaining nation to allow operation of the 737 MAX 8. Link to USA Today article.
13 March 2019: US Federal Aviation Administration issues emergency order for immediate grounding all USA airline operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft, effectively immediately. Link NYT story.
13 March 2019: American Airlines issues announcement of 7M8 grounding. Link to PDF. According to AA:
13 March 2019: AA issues policy allowing those scheduled for 7M8 flights through April 4 to refund or change without fees for cancellations, or to make free changes to their flight plans. See the thread linked to at the top of this Wiki for a link.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: BBC article states FAA says the MAX will not be cleared for flight at least until May. Link to story.
15 March 2019: On the other hand, CNBC states Boeing will have the anti-stall software update for the MAX ready in ten days, and that the FAA is expected to sign off on the modification on March 25, 2019.
NOTE: Thus Wikipost is locked. Please contact JDiver by PM, or use the report post to moderator button , to request changes or correct errors, etc.
To discuss the probable and limited return of the Boeing MAX to service with AA at the end of 2020 and increasingly in 2021, please see
American Planning 737 MAX Service Restoration (Limited Dec and 2021)
To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one?
13 March 2019: All US airline Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. AA has removed all 737 MAX 8 from scheduling through... “Based on the latest guidance, the airline anticipates that the resumption of scheduled commercial service on American’s fleet of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft will occur (limited schedule Dec 2020).
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Who we are: FlyerTalk features discussions and chat boards that covers the most up-to-date traveler information; an interactive community dedicated to the topic of travel (not politics or arguments about politics or religion, etc.)
All travelers are welcome in the community. Just choose a forum: conversing about airlines and their programs, airports, destinations, dining and how to make the most of your miles and points, or visit our Information Desk to start.
We do have some Rules, and everyone agrees to abide by these when they are granted free membership privileges. On a topic that generates a lot of feelings and perspectives, please remember "welcoming, respectful" are key words on FlyerTalk.
As with previous incident threads, please observe the following in this thread:
1. The normal FT Rules apply. (Including not discussing moderation actions on-thread). And please be particularly attentive to "discussing the idea and not the poster" when you have a disagreement. Civility and mutual respect are still expected and are what we owe each other as a community.
2. You are expected to respect our diversity, and therefore refrain from posting inflammatory comments about race, religion, culture, politics, ethnicity, orientation, etc." Do not cite, copy, or report on such.
3. Please do continue to be attentive to the sensibilities of the families of those on the flight. Think about if you were them what you would and would not want to see posted. Reasonable speculation about what happened is permissible; please, though, do not indulge in inflammatory or overly-lurid descriptions or depictions (or links to same) that could well be hurtful.
4. Overly / extravagantly exaggerative posts such as conspiracy theories, posts beyond the realm of science and known facts, etc. as well as posts with information that has been posted several times previously may be summarily deleted. Moderator actions may not be discussed in posts on FlyerTalk.
5. FlyerTalk complies with international copyright agreements. Please do not post full copyrighted articles; summarize the salient points, cite properly and post links. Entire copyrighted articles will be summarily deleted.
6. In addition, those who repeatedly fail to comply with FlyerTalk Rules or the guidelines for this thread may be subjected to FlyerTalk disciplinary actions and have membership privileges suspended, forum masks, etc.
The thread regarding the 10 March 2019 Ethiopian Airlines ET 302 737 MAX 8 crash out of Adis Ababa is Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]. Link.
The thread regarding the 29 October 2018 Lion Air JT 610 737 MAX 8 crash out of Jakarta is Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed
. Link.
The best narrative and information available is probably the Aviation Herald’s Crash: Lion B38M near Jakarta on Oct 29th 2018, aircraft lost height and crashed into Java Sea, wrong AoA data, by Simon Hradecky, created Friday, Oct 25th 2019 13:35Z, last updated Friday, Oct 25th 2019 16:05Z. Link.
American Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (7M8) with options for 60 more. The first 737 MAX -8 flew at the assembly facility in Renton, WAshington, USA on 29 Jan 2016. Deliveries to AA commenced in late in 2017, with four delivered in 2017,16 more during 2018, with 20 more to be delivered during 2019. IATA code B38M; AA code "7M8".
Link to the story of how 737 MAX’ birth in the DFW Admirals Club and the forces that shaped it.
29 October 2018: Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for the previous three flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
7 November 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US airlines 30 days to comply with the AD.
7 November 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced in this post.
See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.
10 March 10, 2019: An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.
10 March 10, 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
A revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in May, 2019.
11 March 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet.
11 March 2019: the US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, AS, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
11 March 2019: AA APFA Flight Attendant union spokesperson asked AA to ground the MAX 8s. (TPG)
11 March 2019: AA pilots through their APA union have requested passengers allow the investigators do their work and refrain from jumping to conclusions. “We caution against speculation about what may have caused this tragic accident,” the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement. (TPG)
12 March 2019: The nation members of the European Union, the United Kingdom and several other nations ban their airlines’ operation, and other airlines’ overflight or flights, of the B38M aircraft. Link to New York Times article.
12 March 2019: Other USA airlines operating 737 MAX aircraft (of all types) are United (UA), Southwest (WN). AS has ordered the MAX 9, but deliveries have not yet been made.
Link to The Points Guy “how to tell if you’re flying a 737 MAX 8” article
13 March 2019: American Airlines pilots’ union APA issues statement in support of the AA B38M: “The AA APA spokesman says AA's MAX 8s have additional indicators on the planes, which others do not have. He says they're the only ones equipped with TWO AOA displays - one for each pilot. This, I guess, is why AA feels they can keep flying the MAX 8. The spokesman said he felt UA and SW (WN) were getting these added to their MAX planes. “ - Econometrics
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/1...ilot-says.html
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38M aircraft. The US is the sole remaining nation to allow operation of the 737 MAX 8. Link to USA Today article.
13 March 2019: US Federal Aviation Administration issues emergency order for immediate grounding all USA airline operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft, effectively immediately. Link NYT story.
13 March 2019: American Airlines issues announcement of 7M8 grounding. Link to PDF. According to AA:
On average, American operates 85 flights per day on the MAX 8, out of 6,700 departures throughout the American Airlines system. Our operations center is working to re-route aircraft throughout the system to cover as much of our schedule as we can.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: BBC article states FAA says the MAX will not be cleared for flight at least until May. Link to story.
15 March 2019: On the other hand, CNBC states Boeing will have the anti-stall software update for the MAX ready in ten days, and that the FAA is expected to sign off on the modification on March 25, 2019.
NOTE: Thus Wikipost is locked. Please contact JDiver by PM, or use the report post to moderator button , to request changes or correct errors, etc.
Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)
Mar 11, 2019, 10:04 am
#139
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: DCA
Programs: AA EXP sad former CK, Bonvoy LT Plat, BAEC Gold, VS, former UA, UA no longer, never, ever, QF
Posts: 228
Follow up communication indicates UA has one 73M in the air presently, but scheduling indicates it is being swapped for another aircraft (739) when it lands.
Mar 11, 2019, 10:10 am
#140
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,146
To quote the source: "UA appears to be doing a quiet swap. They are keeping the 73M flights in their schedule, but are swapping to 738 and 739 equipment. If you FlightAware by equipment type over the US, you should see a bunch of SWA/AA/AC/AMX/WJA 73M flights, but none from UA."
Follow up communication indicates UA has one 73M in the air presently, but scheduling indicates it is being swapped for another aircraft (739) when it lands.
Follow up communication indicates UA has one 73M in the air presently, but scheduling indicates it is being swapped for another aircraft (739) when it lands.
Mar 11, 2019, 10:21 am
#141
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: USA
Programs: Chase Sapphire Reserve, WFBF
Posts: 1,573
I think that's sarcastic, but I'm not certain. I'll try to put this as simply as possible. Over the past decade, the average rate of ~100% fatal hull losses for the 737NG and A320 is less than 1 per 10,000 aircraft-years of operation (i.e., a rate of 0.0001). That includes everything -- even CFIT, terrorism, and suicide. The MAX has less than 300 aircraft-years of operation. The probability that it would suffer at least two 100% fatal hull losses in that period, if it had the same safety profile as the 737NG and A320, is less than 1 in 1,000. Hence the conclusion that there's almost certainly something wrong with it.
According to Boeing's own statistics (http://www.boeing.com/resources/boei...df/statsum.pdf), the 737NG has a fatal hull loss rate of 0.08 per million departures.
Under the null hypothesis, the failure rate of the MAX is the same as the failure rate of the NG (the population failure rate p = 8 x 10^{-8}. There's no reason that failures should be correlated, so the distribution of failures should have the Binomial(n, p) distribution, where n is the number of MAX departures.
If you believe Wikipedia, there have been 350 MAX deliveries, most in 2018 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...and_deliveries). If we assume an average of 4 segments per day and an average of 300 days per frame that is n = 420,000 departures.
The probability of observing two or more such failures in 420000 departures (which is 1 minus the probability of observing one or none) is less than 0.0006. Since the standard for statistical significance is usually 0.05, anyone armed with these statistics would conclude that this is strong evidence the hull loss rate of the MAX is higher than the hull loss rate of the NG.
Incidentally, even if I have underestimated the number of MAX departures by a factor of 2, changing to n = 840000 the P-value is still 0.003, which is still highly significant. However, what is most interesting is that if we instead had only observed one failure until now (Lion Air), the P-value would have been just around 0.05 (depending on your assumption about n), which is much, much weaker evidence of a difference. So statistically speaking, people are actually correct to see the second event in a short period of time as cause for worry. The second failure in a short period of time
Excel calculation follows for those interested.
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Of course this doesn't say anything about whether there's a design flaw, it's just pretty strong evidence that there is something different about the MAX than the NG.
Mar 11, 2019, 10:44 am
#147
Join Date: Jan 2011
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Mar 11, 2019, 10:52 am
#148
Join Date: Oct 2018
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Let me remind all that the 737 Max in third world countries shares something else aside from pilots, and thats different operating conditions.
Remember that the MCAS auto-trim system depends on a single source of information of angle of attack to determine its input to the flight controls. If that information on angle of attack is erroneous, then the MCAS auto-trim system will tell the plane to do things it should not do, dive or climb when it should not.
In third world operating conditions that pitot tube maybe more likely to become contaminated with particulate matter that would obstruct it and lead to it not performing appropriately. We do know that in the Lion Air crash, the day before the plane had been performing erratically and had been referred to maintenance, we don't know what was done, should have been done, what Boeing recommends being done with MCAS auto-trim system knowing its a single point of failure system.
So if I was Boeing, I would be telling a Max operators that the information source for angle of attack in put to the MCAS auto-trim system to be check before and after every flight until Boeing comes up with a further fix.
Remember that the MCAS auto-trim system depends on a single source of information of angle of attack to determine its input to the flight controls. If that information on angle of attack is erroneous, then the MCAS auto-trim system will tell the plane to do things it should not do, dive or climb when it should not.
In third world operating conditions that pitot tube maybe more likely to become contaminated with particulate matter that would obstruct it and lead to it not performing appropriately. We do know that in the Lion Air crash, the day before the plane had been performing erratically and had been referred to maintenance, we don't know what was done, should have been done, what Boeing recommends being done with MCAS auto-trim system knowing its a single point of failure system.
So if I was Boeing, I would be telling a Max operators that the information source for angle of attack in put to the MCAS auto-trim system to be check before and after every flight until Boeing comes up with a further fix.
Mar 11, 2019, 10:57 am
#150
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
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