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Recent 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

Recent 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Jun 17, 19, 6:57 am   -   Wikipost
Please read: This is a community-maintained wiki post containing the most important information from this thread. You may edit the Wiki once you have been on FT for 90 days and have made 90 posts.
 
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This thread is dedicated to the effect on AA from the October 29, 2018 and March 10, 2019 crashes if two Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia, respectively.

To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one?


13 March 2019: All US airline Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. AA has removed all 737 MAX 8 from scheduling through 19 August 2019.

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The thread regarding the 10 March 2019 Ethiopian Airlines ET 302 737 MAX 8 crash out of Adis Ababa is Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]. Link.

The thread regarding the 29 October 2018 Lion Air JT 610 737 MAX 8 crash out of Jakarta is Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed
. Link.

American Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (7M8) with options for 60 more. The first 737 MAX -8 flew at the assembly facility in Renton, WAshington, USA on 29 Jan 2016. Deliveries to AA commenced in late in 2017, with four delivered in 2017,16 more during 2018, with 20 more to be delivered during 2019. IATA code B38M; AA code "7M8".

Link to the story of how 737 MAX’ birth in the DFW Admirals Club and the forces that shaped it.

29 October 2018: Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link

This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for the previous three flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.

7 November 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US airlines 30 days to comply with the AD.

7 November 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced in this post.

See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.

10 March 10, 2019: An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.

Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

10 March 10, 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.

A revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in May, 2019.

11 March 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet.

11 March 2019: the US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, AS, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.

Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.

Link to Wall Street Journal article.

11 March 2019: AA APFA Flight Attendant union spokesperson asked AA to ground the MAX 8s. (TPG)

11 March 2019: AA pilots through their APA union have requested passengers allow the investigators do their work and refrain from jumping to conclusions. “We caution against speculation about what may have caused this tragic accident,” the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement. (TPG)

12 March 2019: The nation members of the European Union, the United Kingdom and several other nations ban their airlines’ operation, and other airlines’ overflight or flights, of the B38M aircraft. Link to New York Times article.

12 March 2019: Other USA airlines operating 737 MAX aircraft (of all types) are United (UA), Southwest (WN). AS has ordered the MAX 9, but deliveries have not yet been made.

Link to The Points Guy “how to tell if you’re flying a 737 MAX 8” article

13 March 2019: American Airlines pilots’ union APA issues statement in support of the AA B38M: “The AA APA spokesman says AA's MAX 8s have additional indicators on the planes, which others do not have. He says they're the only ones equipped with TWO AOA displays - one for each pilot. This, I guess, is why AA feels they can keep flying the MAX 8. The spokesman said he felt UA and SW (WN) were getting these added to their MAX planes. “ - Econometrics

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/1...ilot-says.html

13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38M aircraft. The US is the sole remaining nation to allow operation of the 737 MAX 8. Link to USA Today article.

13 March 2019: US Federal Aviation Administration issues emergency order for immediate grounding all USA airline operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft, effectively immediately. Link NYT story.

13 March 2019: American Airlines issues announcement of 7M8 grounding. Link to PDF. According to AA:

On average, American operates 85 flights per day on the MAX 8, out of 6,700 departures throughout the American Airlines system. Our operations center is working to re-route aircraft throughout the system to cover as much of our schedule as we can.
13 March 2019: AA issues policy allowing those scheduled for 7M8 flights through April 4 to refund or change without fees for cancellations, or to make free changes to their flight plans. See the thread linked to at the top of this Wiki for a link.

14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.

Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia

15 March 2019: BBC article states FAA says the MAX will not be cleared for flight at least until May. Link to story.

15 March 2019: On the other hand, CNBC states Boeing will have the anti-stall software update for the MAX ready in ten days, and that the FAA is expected to sign off on the modification on March 25, 2019.

Currently, AA has removed the 737 MAX 8 aircraft from scheduling through 19 August 2019. The FAA must clear the MAX before it can fly again. AA has 24 MAX 8s grounded and has canceled 115 daily flights as a result. 30 April 2019

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Old Mar 11, 19, 6:23 am
  #106  
 
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Originally Posted by milypan View Post
A reasonable response. Since its introduction in 2017, the MAX has now established a fatality rate that is at least 1,000 times higher than the 737NG and A320ceo/neo over the same period. It has two 100% fatal hull losses in less than 300 aircraft-years of operation. For context, the DC-10, which is widely regarded to have suffered serious safety flaws in the initial design, still made it over 1,600 aircraft-years of operation before its second 100% fatal hull loss. Something is wrong with the MAX.
Taking those facts at face value, I still have no issue getting on the 737 MAX aeroplane. Even if the current safety record continued, it would be incredibly unlikely that I'd get caught up in a crash.

Let's say 30 years traveling at 150k miles a year and 500mph, still comes out to about a 1/200 chance of death via aeroplane. Cars are about 1/100 - 1/300 depending on which country you are in...

Now if I could just quit smoking the cigarettes!

Last edited by Spanish; Mar 11, 19 at 6:24 am Reason: Punctuation.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 6:45 am
  #107  
 
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This is all eerily reminiscent of the plot of the book "Airframe" by Michael Crichton...Anyone else find it so?
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Old Mar 11, 19, 6:56 am
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Originally Posted by flyingeph12 View Post

Need I point out the implication of the part about the crew? Who approved this?
I thought that part was very interesting as well. From what we know about lion air, it's pretty clear that under the right conditions the plane can start making erroneous control inputs. However, there is a procedure for the pilots to disable this system and avert a crash - and all AA pilots were trained on it following lion air. AA clearly has confidence in their pilots that this is sufficient from a safety perspective.

But with a growing number of MAX's in service worldwide, I'm just not ready to bet my life that 100% of the pilots will correctly identify the situation and correctly implement the procedure before the plane becomes uncontrollable.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 7:05 am
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That's the thing at low altitudes at takeoff and landing you have very little time to recognize and correct for a malfunction. If it comes out these pilots were trained on how to detect and turn off ECAS problems then what?
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Old Mar 11, 19, 7:08 am
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rhetorical question... These airlines grounding their 737 MAX for “inspections”, what are they inspecting?

Last edited by SouthernCross; Mar 11, 19 at 7:18 am
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Old Mar 11, 19, 7:09 am
  #111  
 
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Originally Posted by maniac78 View Post
That's the thing at low altitudes at takeoff and landing you have very little time to recognize and correct for a malfunction. If it comes out these pilots were trained on how to detect and turn off ECAS problems then what?
Either ground the fleet or give everyone another round of training.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 7:38 am
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Hi Everyone!

Not here to stir the pot, but my family is traveling on a 737-800 TPA-PHL on 3/20. I'm not a nervous flyer at all, but they are. I realize the 737-800 is not a 737 MAX 8, but my question is does AA swap the -800 for the MAX 8 on a regular basis? Not sure if AA has any 737 MAXs in PHL or not.

Any insight you all could provide would be super helpful for me to hopefully get them "over it".

Safe travels,
Chris
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Old Mar 11, 19, 7:45 am
  #113  
 
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Originally Posted by flyingeph12 View Post


And yet it appears AA has released a statement saying it has “full confidence” in the 737 MAX. Unless AA has facts that none of us are privy to?

The full statement:


Need I point out the implication of the part about the crew? Who approved this?
Wait there’s no “out of an abundance of caution” from AA on this topic? :/
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Old Mar 11, 19, 8:03 am
  #114  
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Originally Posted by arlflyer View Post


I immensely respect your perspectives and am appreciative of all that you have contributed over the years, but the only fact I need is that two of these ships have fallen from the sky, and the only stepping back that this aerospace engineer will be doing will be stepping back from the doorway of any MAX for the foreseeable future. I don’t care to become a data point confirming what is now currently a hypothesis.
Fully respect that.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 8:08 am
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Originally Posted by geckoflyer View Post
Hi Everyone!

Not here to stir the pot, but my family is traveling on a 737-800 TPA-PHL on 3/20. I'm not a nervous flyer at all, but they are. I realize the 737-800 is not a 737 MAX 8, but my question is does AA swap the -800 for the MAX 8 on a regular basis? Not sure if AA has any 737 MAXs in PHL or not.

Any insight you all could provide would be super helpful for me to hopefully get them "over it".

Safe travels,
Chris
They don't sub the MAX 8 in on 738 routes, usually. The MAX 8 routes are mostly dedicated routes ex-MIA.

I looked at the flight history for AA2766 TPA-PHL. Looks like it's almost exclusively flown by N314PD the past couple weeks... which is a 737-800, and as a bonus, a frame with IFE in every seat.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 8:16 am
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Originally Posted by AZbba View Post
I thought that part was very interesting as well. From what we know about lion air, it's pretty clear that under the right conditions the plane can start making erroneous control inputs. However, there is a procedure for the pilots to disable this system and avert a crash - and all AA pilots were trained on it following lion air. AA clearly has confidence in their pilots that this is sufficient from a safety perspective.

But with a growing number of MAX's in service worldwide, I'm just not ready to bet my life that 100% of the pilots will correctly identify the situation and correctly implement the procedure before the plane becomes uncontrollable.
I'm glad that AA has confidence in its pilots. Frankly, I do too. Maybe I'm reading too much into the statement, but I read AA's statement as basically implying that the ET catastrophe was the result of a crew/pilot error, as well as implicitly endorsing the (in my opinion mistaken) belief that African/Asian pilots are as a whole inferior (i.e., not "the best and most experienced in the industry" — btw, what is AA's basis for making such a sweeping claim?).

I don't think AA meant to convey such a message, but that's how its statement came across to me.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 8:24 am
  #117  
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Not a good day for Boeing stockholders.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 8:27 am
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Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
Not a good day for Boeing stockholders.
I didn't realize the MAX was 1/3 of Boeing's profits until all this happened, wow.

Closing down more than 10% today would be its biggest sell off since 17 Sept 2001, the day trading re-opened after 9/11.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 8:27 am
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At this moment I will not go out of the way to avoid 737MAX8, does not mean I believe there is absolutely nothing wrong with 738MAX8. I do think there is something to be looked into 737MAX8 and at this moment we do not know if ET (Ethiopian Airlines) incident was due to auto pilot/flight control issue, not yet.

To be honest my primary concern was I have a flight on 7M8 within a week, involving 7M8 both out bond and return leg, and possibility of my schedule getting messed up. Looks like at this moment AA is not planning to do anything with 7M8 and have not heard anything about FAA. Finger crossed.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 8:33 am
  #120  
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Originally Posted by AlwaysAisle View Post
At this moment I will not go out of the way to avoid 737MAX8
At this moment I will go out of the way to avoid the 737 MAX.
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